CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
November 17, 2025 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of November 17, 2025
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Released on Tuesday, November 11, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped in October, falling 0.6 points to 98.2, driven almost entirely by a significant deterioration in earnings trends. The Uncertainty Index notably fell 12 points to its lowest level of the year. The labor market remains tight, with 32% of owners reporting unfilled job openings and labor quality cited as the single most important business problem. Inflationary pressures eased slightly, as the net percent of owners planning price hikes dipped to 30%. Forward-looking indicators were mixed: expectations for future business conditions declined, though capital spending plans ticked up.
For commercial real estate professionals, the key takeaway from the NFIB report is weakening tenant health. Small business earnings trends fell sharply (net -25%), and sales expectations dipped. While plans for capital outlays (+23%) and expansion (+13%) ticked up slightly, these levels are described as "anemic" and "weak". Actual spending on new facilities or land was flat to down. The primary headwind for businesses is "labor quality," cited as the single most important problem, suggesting margin pressure will continue. Credit conditions improved slightly, with financing remaining a low-level concern for most owners.
ADP National Employment Report Pulse
Released on Tuesday, November 11, the latest NER Pulse (an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average) showed further signs of a weakening labor market, as private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs weekly in late October. This suggests underlying struggles despite a modest 42,000 job gain reported earlier in the month, which was not broad-based. Job growth has slowed to a 1% annualized pace, down from a 2% pre-2020 average. Economists increasingly expect a new normal of slower, more volatile hiring, projected around 0.3% annually, due to reduced labor demand and supply.
For CRE professionals, the key takeaway is the significant and potentially long-term slowdown in job growth, a primary driver of space demand. Job shedding in key office-using sectors like professional services and information signals weakening fundamentals and declining absorption for office properties. Weakness in leisure and hospitality impacts hotel and retail demand. The projected structural shift to a much slower 0.3% annual growth pace, down from a 2% pre-pandemic average, could imply chronically weaker demand across CRE sectors, which could complicate underwriting for lenders, and negatively impacts investor and owner forecasts for occupancy and asset values.
Following a record 43-day shutdown, the US federal government reopened on November 12, 2025. Statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are resuming operations, but data availability is severely compromised. Because data for October was not collected, key reports like the October CPI (inflation) and the full Employment Situation (jobs) report may be permanently lost or released with significant quality issues. Agencies will publish revised schedules, but analysts expect this "blind spot" in October data to create economic uncertainty for months.
The federal government reopening restores operations for key housing and real estate programs. The shutdown had halted critical functions, including loan processing by the FHA and VA, and delayed Section 8 housing assistance payments. The lapse of the National Flood Insurance Program during the closure also disrupted an estimated 1,000 real estate closings per day. A stopgap funding measure ensures these agencies are operational again, alleviating the bottleneck in the housing market. While the reopening is welcomed, market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at their last meeting of 2025 continued to slip through the week, falling to close to 50/50 (25 bps cut vs no cut).
News
News to know
Wealthy travelers are spending heavily on luxury hotels, pushing the average daily rate (ADR) for U.S. luxury properties to a record $394 this year. This rate is $168 more than the next-priciest tier, a gap that has widened significantly since 2008. Despite higher rates and a drop in foreign tourism, demand for luxury hotels grew 2.5% this year through September, while demand for lower-tier hotels fell. Affluent travelers, enriched by stock market and real estate gains, are prioritizing experiences and "ultra-luxury" options. This strong demand is fueling expansion by brands like Montage International.
Commercial real estate (CRE) lending in the U.S. increased 112% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, returning to pre-COVID levels. This rebound is attributed to a more stable, lower interest rate environment from the Federal Reserve and a narrowing bid/ask spread. Bank lending volumes surged 167% year-over-year, increasing their market share from 18% to 31%. The CMBS market also saw a five-fold increase in volume. Debt funds and mREITs still lead, claiming 37% of the market. Conversely, life insurance companies saw their lending share drop from 43% to 16%.
New York City set to see rise in 99-unit apartment towers | Bloomberg, November 12, 2025
New York City developers filed 21 applications for 99-unit residential buildings in the third quarter, a massive spike from the 13 total filings between 2008 and 2023. This trend is an effort to avoid higher labor costs mandated by the new 485-x tax abatement program, which replaces the expired 421-a program. The 485-x program requires developers of buildings with 100 or more units to pay workers at least $40 an hour. While the new program has helped restart development stalled after 421-a expired, critics argue the wage rules make large projects difficult to fund.
Large U.S. corporate bankruptcies rose slightly to 68 in October from 66 in September. The year-to-date total reached 655 filings, nearing 2024's full-year total of 687 and pacing for a 15-year high. The largest filing in October was Office Properties Income Trust, which had over $1 billion in liabilities. Through October 2025, the industrial sector saw the most filings (98), followed by consumer discretionary (80) and healthcare (45). Analysts remain cautious, noting that while some high-profile filings were idiosyncratic, more "isolated incidents" are expected.
Big brokerages are back in buying mode | Bisnow, November 13, 2025
The commercial real estate brokerage industry is undergoing consolidation, driven by a "post-pandemic reset" of higher interest rates and significantly lower transaction volumes. These challenging market conditions are squeezing the finances of smaller and mid-sized firms. In response, larger, full-service brokerages are using their scale, diversified service lines, and technology platforms to acquire smaller competitors and increase their overall market share.
Job gains accelerate in these cities, reshaping CRE demand | GlobeSt.com, November 14, 2025
Accelerated job growth in secondary and tertiary U.S. markets is reshaping commercial real estate demand. Sun Belt cities like Austin, Nashville, and Raleigh are experiencing robust gains, driven by the tech and advanced manufacturing sectors. This migration is fueling strong demand for multifamily and industrial properties in these regions. Conversely, traditional gateway cities are facing headwinds, particularly in the office sector, as companies follow the talent to these high-growth secondary markets.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
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Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Monday, November 17
8:30AM: Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov)
Tuesday, November 18
8:30AM: Import & Export Prices (Oct)
9:15AM: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Oct)
10:00AM: NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov)
Thursday, November 20
8:30AM: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
8:30AM: Initial Jobless Claims
10:00AM: Existing Home Sales (Oct)
11:00AM: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
Friday, November 21
9:45AM: S&P Global Flash PMI (Nov, preliminary)
10:00AM: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov)
2:00PM: FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting)
Upcoming industry events
December 8 – December 11: NAREIT REITworld Annual Conference
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Research Director
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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