CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
November 24, 2025 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of November 24, 2025
A quick heads-up: CRE This Week will take a break on December 1 as we observe the Thanksgiving holiday.
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
On November 17, the U.S. Census Bureau released its August 2025 Value of Construction Put in Place report. Total construction spending edged up 0.2 percent from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.17 trillion, though it remained 1.6 percent below year-ago levels. Private construction increased 0.3 percent to $1.65 trillion, while public outlays were essentially flat at $517 billion.
Private non-residential construction slipped 0.3 percent to $737.3 billion in August. Nominal spending has been declining at an annual rate of roughly 3 percent or more since late 2024 but has likely been declining in real (inflation-adjusted) terms for much longer. Manufacturing remains a major drag. After growing at an annual pace above 80 percent in mid-2023, manufacturing construction is now down 8.5 percent year-over-year. Its share of total private nonresidential spending has fallen for seven straight months and dropped below 30 percent for the first time since March 2024 as major IRA- and CHIPS-supported projects reach completion and associated tax credits begin to fade.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed September 2025 employment report on November 20. The delayed September employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by about 119,000, stronger than expected even as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. The report also included sizable downward revisions to prior months, with August revised into a small loss and July trimmed back. Because data collection was disrupted during the government shutdown, this release arrived more than six weeks late and reflects the first clean labor-market reading since the summer.
For the broader economy and commercial real estate, the report points to a labor market that is cooling but still generating enough job growth to support baseline demand. Yet the rise in unemployment and the weaker revisions signal softer momentum underneath the headline figure, which can weigh on office leasing, discretionary retail, and hiring-linked CRE categories. Importantly, this will be the last employment report the Federal Reserve sees before its December meeting, since the October numbers were never collected. With no additional labor data to evaluate, the Fed may be more cautious on near-term rate cuts, keeping financing costs elevated for investors and limiting relief for the capital-markets side of CRE.
NAHB Housing Market Index and NAR Existing Home Sales
The National Association of Homebuilders released the Housing Market Index (HMI) for November on November 18. The HMI inched up to 38 from 37 but remains well below the 50 threshold that signals optimism. Builders reported slightly better current sales and buyer traffic, though expectations for future sales softened. The message is still one of caution as elevated costs, economic uncertainty, and softer labor conditions weigh on confidence.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors announced on November 20 that existing home sales rose 1.2 percent in October to an annualized pace of 4.10 million. Inventory increased to 1.52 million units, or a 4.4-month supply, marking continued stabilization rather than real acceleration in resale activity. Gains were concentrated in the Midwest and South, with the West still lagging.
Taken together, the data point to a housing market that remains constrained but not yet weakening materially. For commercial real estate, the biggest takeaway is the ongoing support this provides to multifamily demand. Low builder sentiment and therefore slow future single-family construction mean new for-sale supply will stay tight, keeping many would-be buyers in rentals longer. Existing home sales are improving, but affordability remains a significant barrier (another tailwind for multifamily occupancy and rent stability). For CRE capital markets, a steady but unspectacular housing backdrop reinforces the view that multifamily remains one of the more resilient property sectors heading into year-end.
News
News to know
The commercial real estate sector is still reeling from the impacts of the recent 43-day federal government shutdown, which caused an $11B hit to GDP and left a deep backlog across housing and hospitality markets. Affordable housing developers face stalled HUD loan processing, delayed voucher approvals, and mounting project backlogs, while hotel operators report $1.2B in lost revenue and millions of vacant room nights as travel disruptions rippled through the economy. The uncertainty surrounding another potential shutdown early next year, combined with rising financing costs and policy changes at HUD that redirect funds away from permanent housing, has left CRE leaders racing to close deals and stabilize operations before new deadlines hit.
Chicago loop commercial property values drop 7.2% amid vacancies | Bloomberg, November 17, 2025
Commercial property values in Chicago's Loop dropped by about 7.2% last year amid lower sale prices and vacancies, according to a report from the county treasurer. The Loop's commercial properties' assessed value fell $379.2 million, leading taxes to drop to $992.4 million from more than $1.1 billion, according to the report. The impact of the drop in commercial property tax bills is being felt beyond the district's limits, with Chicago homeowners paying $469.4 million more and industrial property taxes increasing by $73.5 million due to the tax shift. The vast majority of property taxes go to fund the city’s underfunded pensions. Last year, the city council unanimously voted against Mayor Brandon Johnson’s proposal to raise property taxes by $300 million.
Ackman says now isn’t time for US to sell Fannie, Freddie | Bloomberg, November 18, 2025
Bill Ackman argued that the Treasury should not sell its stakes in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac right now, saying a proper offering would take significant time and that several steps are needed first, including the government exercising its warrants to own up to 79.9% of the common stock and re-listing the companies on the NYSE. He noted that Treasury has already recouped its investment plus roughly $25 billion in dividends and said the preferred shares could be considered repaid, clearing the way for a listing. His comments come as the Trump administration considers a public offering as early as late 2025 or early 2026, although many market participants view that timeline as unrealistic. Shares of both mortgage giants rose following Ackman’s presentation, but critics warn that releasing the companies without a clear government guarantee could disrupt mortgage-backed securities markets and push borrowing costs higher.
Top STEM hubs fueling CRE demand | Commercial Property Executive, November 20, 2025
RCLCO’s latest STEM Job Growth Index once again places Austin at the top, driven by a deep STEM workforce, rapid job growth, and strong quality of life. Seattle, Raleigh, Denver, and Boston follow, with Dallas and Charlotte entering the top ten for the first time. Nationally, STEM jobs grew at more than double the pace of non-STEM roles from 2019 to 2024, and wages remain nearly twice as high. This expansion is fueling demand for office, industrial, and R&D space, supported by growth in generative AI, biotechnology, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing helped by federal policies like the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. While some tech layoffs have raised questions about the pace of change, the report notes that broader economic conditions may explain those cuts. Overall, STEM remains a major driver of local economic growth and commercial real estate activity.
The U.S. office market’s recovery remains highly uneven, with only a few districts in cities like New York and San Francisco showing real improvement while most major markets continue to struggle with record-high vacancy and weak rents. Remote and hybrid work have permanently reduced demand for office space, breaking the historical link between job growth and leasing, and leaving many buildings obsolete or distressed. Office values have fallen sharply, tax bases in cities such as Washington and San Francisco are shrinking, and delinquency rates on office mortgages packaged into CMBS have climbed to record levels. Investors remain cautious as sales volumes are still far below pre-pandemic levels, and many owners are surrendering properties to lenders. With new supply limited and conversions rising, some cities are running short on prime space, but the broader outlook is clouded by job cuts, shifting tenant needs, and uncertainty about how AI will affect future office demand.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Report | Q3 2025 US CRE investment and transactions quarterly
We’ve officially released the Q3 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions Quarterly report, providing a comprehensive view of commercial real estate transaction activity, pricing changes, and sector-level performance across the US market.
Below is a selection of key highlights for this quarter's report:
45,893 non-distressed properties transacted in the quarter
• Up 12.6% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY
$150.6B in aggregate transaction volume
• Up 23.7% QoQ and up 25.1% YoY
Median price per sq. ft. for single-property transactions
• Up 2.9% QoQ and up 14.2% YoY
Sector standouts (QoQ pricing gains)
• Hospitality: +4.3%
• Multifamily: +3.5%
Sector standouts (YoY pricing gains)
• Multifamily: +17.3%
• Office: +14.8%
Subsector performance
• 13 of 15 subsectors posted QoQ median price gains
• All 15 subsectors posted YoY gains
• QoQ leaders: Storage (+7.6%), Full-service hotels (+5.2%)
• YoY leaders: Automotive (+19.4%), Other industrial (+18.1%)
View or download the full report
Podcast | Q3 surprise: Confirmations of a CRE turnaround?
Q3 2025 might go down as the moment the CRE market quietly turned the corner. In our latest CRE Exchange episode, our research team discuss why transaction volumes surged, how pricing trends changed across sectors, and what the return of large deals potentially signals for the year ahead.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, November 25
9:00AM: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00AM: Consumer Confidence
10:00AM: Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, November 26
8:30AM: Q3 2025 GDP (May be delayed)
10:00AM: Personal Income (May be delayed)
10:00AM: PCE Price Index (May be delayed)
Upcoming industry events
December 8 – December 11: NAREIT REITworld Annual Conference
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Research Director
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
Resources
Latest insights
