CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
August 11, 2025 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of August 11, 2025
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
S&P Final Services PMI and the ISM Services Index
On August 5 2025, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July, which slipped to 50.1 from 50.8. This signaled only marginal expansion as new orders barely grew (50.3), employment contracted (46.4) and prices paid accelerated to 69.9, the highest since 2022. That same day, S&P Global released its final July U.S. Services PMI at 55.7, revised up from the flash 55.2 and June’s 52.9, marking the strongest service-sector growth of 2025 so far.
The mixed signals from the ISM and S&P Global services surveys highlight a service economy that continues to expand but under mounting pressure from costs and soft hiring. For commercial real estate, this backdrop reinforces a steady yet cautious outlook. Modest top-line growth in services should support baseline occupier demand. However, with prices paid accelerating and job creation faltering, the foundation remains fragile. Tenants may be more selective in space commitments, and owners could face rising operating expenses just as financing conditions stay tight.
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve released the July G.19 report on consumer spending on August 7. The report showed that consumer credit rose at a 1.8% annual rate in June, driven entirely by non-revolving credit like auto and student loans. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, declined for the second straight month. On a quarterly basis, credit expanded at a 2.3% pace, with non-revolving balances up 2.9% and revolving up just 0.7%, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid elevated rates.
The back-to-back monthly decline in credit card balances signals a shift in consumer behavior, with spending increasingly focused on essentials and financed purchases like automobiles or education. This pivot away from discretionary categories may hit CRE sectors tied to apparel, dining, and entertainment first, where tenant performance often hinges on impulse-driven demand and credit-fueled transactions. While not yet a warning sign of distress, the trend reflects mounting pressure on household budgets and could temper leasing velocity and sales growth in higher-exposure retail as the year progresses.
News
News to know
Postal Realty Trust, led by CEO Andrew Spodek, has built a specialized real estate portfolio by acquiring properties leased to the U.S. Postal Service, now owning nearly 7 percent of USPS facilities nationwide. While the Postal Service has long been seen as a stable tenant, it is under growing pressure from falling mail volumes, political uncertainty, and financial losses. These concerns have weighed on Postal Realty in the past, but the REIT has recently outperformed the broader market and maintains high occupancy with steady rent growth. Spodek remains confident in the long-term value of the properties and sees potential for post offices to expand into broader government service hubs, though that will depend on future federal decisions.
LightBox survey anticipates busier second half of 2025 | Connect CRE, August 4, 2025
Most commercial real estate professionals expect deal activity to pick up or hold steady in the second half of 2025, according to LightBox’s Mid-Year CRE Market Sentiment Survey. Among 237 respondents, 76% predicted stable or increased transaction volume, despite lingering uncertainty. Interest rates remain the top concern, followed by economic volatility and tariff risks, with many citing the lack of rate movement as the key obstacle to price discovery.
CRE investors done waiting for Fed rate cut | Bisnow, August 4, 2025
Commercial real estate investors are moving off the sidelines and making deals without waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. After a nearly three-year slump, U.S. commercial property investment saw a 25% jump in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to Avison Young. Despite uncertainty around tariffs, second-quarter deal volume still climbed nearly 18% year-over-year. This renewed activity has led major brokerage firms like CBRE, Colliers, and Newmark to raise their earnings guidance for the remainder of the year. A recent CRE Finance Council survey reflects this shift, with nearly half of respondents now holding a favorable market view, a significant increase from the first quarter. The prevailing sentiment is that the risk of not doing a deal now outweighs the risk of executing one, as investors adapt to a stable, albeit high, interest rate environment.
How an NYC suburb is actually managing to bring rents down | The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2025
New Rochelle, a suburb about a 40-minute train ride from Manhattan, has effectively tempered rent growth through a pro-development stance. Over the past decade, the city has added over 4,500 new housing units, with another 6,500 in the pipeline—a 37% increase in its apartment stock. This surge in supply has resulted in median rents rising only 1.6% since 2020, a stark contrast to the 25% or higher increases seen in New York City and nearby New Jersey markets. From 2020 to 2023, New Rochelle's median rent actually fell by 2%. The city achieved this by streamlining environmental reviews, offering tax incentives, and creating standardized zoning rules that guarantee a 90-day approval process for projects that meet the criteria. This developer-friendly approach, which has attracted over $2.5 billion in new investment, is now being looked at as a model by other officials facing housing shortages.
The Trump administration is preparing to launch a public offering for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later this year, aiming to raise up to $30 billion. The plan could value the two companies at over $500 billion combined, though officials are still debating whether to IPO them separately or as a single entity. Fannie and Freddie have remained under government conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis, and it's unclear whether that status would change post-offering. While the government would be the seller, details around the firms’ government guarantees and the IPO timeline remain uncertain. If successful, it would mark one of the largest stock offerings in history.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Q2 REIT earnings: What we’re seeing across industrial, retail, office and multifamily
With Q2 REIT earnings season now past its midpoint, our own Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry share a snapshot of how select REITs across industrial, office, residential, and retail sectors are performing and positioning.
Tune in for highlights on key takeaways from recent calls and early reporting trends
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Monday, August 11
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Data Release
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index, Data Release
8:30 AM: Lument Finance Trust, Inc. [NYSE:LFT], Earnings Call
5:00 PM: The Macerich Company [NYSE:MAC], Earnings Call
Tuesday, August 12
8:30 AM: Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. [NYSE:SEG], Earnings Call
10:00 AM: Sotherly Hotels Inc. [NASDAQGM:SOHO], Earnings Call
5:00 PM: Fathom Holdings Inc. [NASDAQCM:FTHM], Earnings Call
Wednesday, August 13
10:00 AM: JLL Income Property Trust, Inc., Earnings Call
Thursday, August 14
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index, Data Release
9:00 AM: Logistic Properties of the Americas [NYSEAM:LPA], Earnings Call
10:00 AM: Advanced Flower Capital Inc. [NASDAQGM:AFCG], Earnings Call
11:00 AM: FrontView REIT, Inc. [NYSE:FVR], Earnings Call
Friday, August 15
8:30 AM: Retail Sales, Data Release
10:00 AM: Business Inventories, Data Release
10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary), Data Release
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Research Director
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
Resources
Latest insights
Aug 7, 2025
EP72 - Q2 REIT earnings: What we're seeing across industrial, retail, office and multifamily
