CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
August 3, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of August 3, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
Durable Goods Orders (June 2026, Advance)
The U.S. Census Bureau released the advance durable goods report for June on July 27. New orders rose 0.3% to $334.8 billion, recovering partially from a 4.0% decline in May, with gains in three of the last four months. Excluding transportation, orders increased 0.6%; excluding defense, 0.3%. Computers and electronic products led the monthly gain, up 3.1% to $31.1 billion. The core capex proxy, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose 0.9% to $85.1 billion and is up 9.3% year-to-date. Shipments increased 0.7% to $330.7 billion, and unfilled orders grew 0.6% to $1.59 trillion, 8.2% above year-ago levels. All figures are nominal.
The 9.3% year-to-date gain in core capex and 13.3% growth in primary metals orders point to active production pipelines and sustained demand for manufacturing and industrial space, with metals growth also keeping upward pressure on steel-intensive construction costs. The outsized gains in computers and electronics (up 13.9% year-to-date) and communications equipment (up 33.7%) are better read as data center supply signals; those categories are primarily inputs into hyperscale buildout rather than indicators of tenant demand for space. Defense capital goods orders, up 41.1% year-to-date, more cleanly reflect demand for specialized industrial, R&D, and government-leased facilities.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (May 2026)
S&P Dow Jones Indices released the May 2026 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller results on July 28. The U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.1% year over year, up from 0.9% in April but well below the 2.4% posted in May 2025. The 10-City Composite gained 2.4% and the 20-City Composite 1.6%, both accelerating from the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the National Index declined 0.05% month over month, suggesting seasonal factors drove most of the headline gain. With inflation at 4.2% in May, home values fell in real terms for the 12th consecutive month. Chicago led all metros for the third straight month at +6.9%, followed by New York (+4.2%) and Cleveland (+3.1%), while Las Vegas (-1.9%), Seattle (-1.8%), Denver (-1.8%), and Tampa (-1.6%) posted annual declines. Thirty-year mortgage rates stood at 6.5%.
Nominal price growth near 1% against 4.2% inflation means housing is providing no affordability relief, keeping transaction volumes suppressed and more households renting. That supports multifamily occupancy in supply-constrained markets, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest where prices remain firm. The regional divergence matters for CRE: Chicago and New York benefit from tight supply and return-to-office momentum, while Sun Belt markets facing price declines and excess apartment deliveries face additional pressure on effective rents and cap rates. For SFR operators concentrated in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Denver, and Tampa, softening home values erode the buy-versus-rent spread that had been underpinning rental demand.
Consumer Confidence Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Conference Board released its July Consumer Confidence Index on July 28, showing the headline index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. The Present Situation Index posted its third consecutive monthly decline, down 3.6 points to 114.9, as the share of consumers calling jobs "plentiful" slipped to 24.6% from 25.5%. The Expectations Index held at 74.7, below the 80 threshold historically associated with recession risk. On July 31, the University of Michigan released its final July Sentiment Index at 55.2, up 5.7 points from June but 10.5% below July 2025. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.6% in June, still well above the 3.4% pre-Iran conflict reading from February, while long-run expectations held at 3.3%.
The Conference Board's three-month slide in the Present Situation Index is the more concerning signal of the two releases, pointing to softening perceptions of labor availability and business conditions that tend to lead changes in consumer spending. The UMich rebound is a partial reversal of June's decline rather than a trend improvement, and at 55.2 the headline remains at levels historically associated with economic stress rather than expansion. Elevated inflation expectations in both surveys continue to compress real purchasing power, limiting upside for discretionary retail, restaurant, and hospitality tenants where foot traffic and tenant revenues track consumer psychology closely. Write-in responses in the Conference Board survey again flagged food and grocery costs as the primary household financial concern, which supports necessity-based retail but points to continued pressure on spending in apparel, entertainment, and other non-essential categories. Further softening in labor market perceptions would add pressure on rent affordability in Class B and C multifamily, where tenant credit profiles are more sensitive to income volatility.
Q2 2026 GDP (Advance Estimate) and Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released both reports on July 30. Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed positively, while government spending declined and imports rose. The federal government spending decrease was partly a technical artifact tied to Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil sales, which reduced measured government consumption without a direct drag on overall output. Price pressures accelerated: the gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.7% versus 3.6% in Q1, and the PCE price index climbed to 5.1% from 4.6%. Core PCE (ex food and energy) eased to 3.4% from 4.4%.
The June Personal Income and Outlays report added more texture on the consumer. Personal income rose 0.2%, slowing from 0.7% in May, with disposable income matching that pace. Real PCE held at 0.4% month-over-month. The monthly PCE price index fell 0.1%, its first negative monthly reading in recent months, though the year-over-year rate held at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3%. Services spending led the June gain at $58.2 billion versus $7.0 billion for goods. The personal saving rate fell to 2.7%.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers accelerating to 3.9% from 1.7% in Q1 is the stronger signal for occupancy and leasing demand, and it cuts against the cautious read the 1.5% headline invites. The problem is that demand holding up at these price levels removes any near-term pressure on the Fed to move, keeping the cost of capital where it is and the transaction market range-bound. The 2.7% saving rate is worth watching on the consumer side: real PCE growth is running ahead of income growth, which is a combination that tends to compress over time and adds a durability question to discretionary segments. On the development side, a 5.7% gross domestic purchases deflator is doing more damage to budget certainty than the policy rate at this point, reinforcing why new starts remain selective and why that supply constraint continues to benefit stabilized assets in most markets.
News
News to know
News to know
A WSJ analysis of New York City's 2023 Housing and Vacancy Survey found that the top 10% of earners in rent-stabilized units save a median $1,300 per month versus market rate, a 36% discount, compared with roughly $300 in savings for renters in the bottom three income quartiles. More than 86,700 households earning over $200,000 annually occupy stabilized units, about 10% of the roughly one-million-unit stock, per the Citizens Budget Commission. The system has no income certification requirement, and the 2019 state law eliminated most mechanisms landlords previously used to deregulate units. Mayor Mamdani's rent freeze, set to take effect in October, extends those benefits further, reinforcing the bifurcation between stabilized and market-rate product and reducing landlord incentive to invest in or transact older pre-1974 stock.
AI is rewiring the office-leasing playbook | Commercial Observer, July 27, 2026
National AI office demand is up 85% year-over-year, with five submarkets accounting for nearly three-quarters of active AI square footage: San Francisco's SoMa and Mission Bay (25%), the South Financial District (16%), San Jose (14%), and Midtown South and Midtown Manhattan (11% and 8%). Demand reflects a concentration of senior technical talent rather than broad headcount growth. Secondary markets are emerging: Seattle AI demand is up 390% year-over-year, Austin has reached 1.2 million square feet of active demand, and Northern Virginia, Atlanta, and Chicago are flagged as next-cycle markets. Blackstone and Brookfield's combined $2 billion commitment to enterprise AI deployment platforms is cited as a signal that institutional execution at scale is the next phase.
Five Point Holdings plans to break ground in September on Candlestick, a 270-acre master-planned development on the former Candlestick Park site that would ultimately include more than 7,200 homes, offices, shops, and parks. Phase one covers seven blocks supporting roughly 675 units, with over $130 million in infrastructure costs partially offset by incremental property tax revenue and a $20 million federal grant. The project has faced delays since 2009 from retail market shifts, a Navy cleanup fraud scandal at the adjacent Hunters Point Shipyard, and the pandemic. Five Point cites San Francisco's tightening apartment market, with vacancy below 4% and rents up more than 10% over the past year, and southward office expansion driven by AI tenants in Mission Bay.
MassHousing's Bringing Innovation to Lending and Development program combines public debt and equity to fill capital stack gaps in mixed-income housing projects. The program pairs a Freddie Mac-backed senior mortgage with a MassHousing subordinate loan covering 10% of total debt, plus preferred equity from its $50 million Momentum Fund at a roughly 6% return target versus 12% for market-rate equity. MassHousing has deployed $31 million in equity and more than $189 million in debt across six projects totaling 605 units. A new Urban Institute report highlighted it as a replicable model for other states, noting that debt-to-equity ratios on mixed-income deals have compressed from roughly 75% to 60% as rates and construction costs rose.
Immigration enforcement continues to weigh on Los Angeles retail corridors | Bisnow, July 28, 2026
A UCLA report found that two weeks of ICE raids in Los Angeles' Fashion District in June 2025 resulted in more than $3 million in lost revenue and 46,000 fewer business visits. Foot traffic through the first half of 2026 remained 9.9% below 2024 levels, and 82% of businesses surveyed reported negative impacts. ICE arrests in the greater Los Angeles area reached 2,581 in the first two months of 2026, up 148% year-over-year. Business owners have responded by deferring expansion plans and consolidating locations, with researchers noting the $3 million figure excludes spoiled inventory, unpaid wages, and lost supplier orders.
Fed holds rates, but CRE focuses on what's next | Commercial Property Executive, July 29, 2026
The FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Ahead of the decision, CME FedWatch placed the probability of a hold at 68.8% and a hike at 31.5%. The Fed chair reiterated his retreat from forward guidance, saying future decisions will be data-dependent and that the committee's statement was intentionally limited to current facts. He also flagged that nominal and real Treasury yields had risen materially since the June meeting, calling the move across the curve among the most significant between meetings in two decades. Industry participants noted that for CRE, the fed funds rate is secondary to 10-year Treasury yields and credit spreads in determining actual borrowing costs. What the market lacks is not capital or appetite but conviction on the trajectory of inflation, rates, and growth. Borrowers have responded with lower leverage, more conservative underwriting, and increased use of extensions, mezzanine financing, and preferred equity.
Mortgage rates rise to 6.66%, highest in a year | Bloomberg, July 30, 2026
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.66% as of July 30, the highest reading since July 31, 2025, when it hit 6.72%, according to Freddie Mac. Rates had briefly fallen below 6% in late February before renewed Middle East conflict drove energy prices and Treasury yields higher. The 10-year Treasury is near a one-year high, and following the Fed's July meeting, three officials dissented in favor of a rate hike, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high. Pending home sales fell to their lowest level since early April for the four weeks ended July 26, per Redfin. The Fed's next move is now more likely a hike than a cut. A Zillow report highlights a widening K-shaped split: luxury home sales rose 6.2% year-over-year in May while starter-home sales fell 5.4%, with the divergence most pronounced in San Francisco, where AI-driven wealth gains pushed high-end transactions up 21.6%.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Capital rotation, real assets, and a new era for CRE deals
What does a new era for CRE deals look like, and what's driving it?
That's the central question in the latest CRE Exchange, where Omar Eltorai sits down with Tim Bodner, who leads PwC's US and global real estate deals practice, to discuss the firm's 2026 midyear CRE outlook. Tim walks through how capital rotation toward real assets is redefining the dealmaking landscape, why operational prowess now drives value where cap rate compression once did, and what PwC is seeing in REIT consolidation and private capital activity.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Monday, August 3
9:45 AM: US Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM: Construction Spending (Jun)
Tuesday, August 4
8:30 AM: Trade Balance (Jun)
10:00 AM: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (Jun)
10:00 AM: Factory Orders (Jun)
Wednesday, August 5
8:15 AM: ADP National Employment Report (Jul)
9:45 AM: US Services PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM: ISM Services PMI (Jul)
Thursday, August 6
8:30 AM: Preliminary Productivity and Costs (Q2)
8:30 AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Aug 1)
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade (Jun)
Friday, August 7
8:30 AM: Employment Report (Jul)
8:30 AM: Unemployment Rate (Jul)
8:30 AM: Average Hourly Earnings (Jul)
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit (Jun)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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