CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?

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The housing market is swinging toward buyers | Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2026

The US housing market is increasingly shifting in buyers’ favor, with about 62 percent of homes in 2025 selling below their original listing price, the highest share since 2019, and average discounts reaching roughly 8 percent, according to data from Redfin. Elevated mortgage rates and high prices have sidelined many would-be buyers, leaving a record gap between sellers and buyers and giving those still active more leverage to negotiate price cuts and concessions. Buyer-friendly conditions are most pronounced in Southern markets such as Florida and Texas, where heavy new construction has boosted supply, while tighter markets like Newark and parts of California remain more competitive. Lower mortgage rates than a year ago and a recent uptick in existing home sales suggest modest momentum, but overall demand remains subdued as affordability constraints persist.

First US Bank failure of 2026 has ties to commercial real estate | Bisnow, February 3, 2026

Illinois regulators seized Metropolitan Capital Bank and Trust in Chicago, marking the first U.S. bank failure of 2026, with the FDIC transferring deposits and most assets to First Independence Bank. While no official cause has been cited, court records point to a problematic $4.5 million commercial real estate loan tied to a failed HUD-insured skilled nursing portfolio and a borrower later charged with running a Ponzi scheme. The loan was repeatedly modified without adequate collateral or due diligence, and the exposure was large relative to the bank’s balance sheet, underscoring how concentrated CRE risk can still pose problems for smaller banks.

Do more deportations mean lower housing costs? | Wall Street Journal, February 3, 2026

The Trump administration argues that stepped-up deportations are helping lower housing costs by reducing demand, but economists and housing analysts say the evidence is weak and that oversupply and slowing migration between states are far more important drivers of recent price and rent declines. While the Department of Homeland Security claims millions of immigrants have left the country, researchers note that rents were already falling in many targeted markets and estimate the direct savings from deportations at only a few dollars per month for renters. Surveys from John Burns Research and Consulting show immigration enforcement has instead made it harder for some owners to fill apartments, particularly in Sun Belt markets with excess supply. At the same time, deportations are tightening construction labor supply and raising costs, potentially slowing new housing delivery and undercutting affordability goals, even as the Department of Housing and Urban Development moves to more strictly verify tenant eligibility in federally subsidized housing.

The one big beautiful bill: Catalyst or constraint for CRE’s next cycle? | Commercial Property Executive, February 3, 2026

Seven months after passage, the One Big Beautiful Bill is beginning to influence commercial real estate activity, though more as a stabilizing tailwind than a full reset for the market. Expanded depreciation, bonus expensing, Opportunity Zone permanence, and other tax provisions have improved cash flow visibility and underwriting clarity, helping revive investor confidence and early-stage deal activity, according to industry participants cited by Commercial Property Executive. At the same time, elevated interest rates, tariff-driven construction costs, and broader macro volatility continue to constrain feasibility, keeping lenders cautious and many projects moving slowly. The result is a market defined by measured momentum rather than acceleration, where policy clarity is helping capital move off the sidelines, but fundamentals such as borrowing costs and construction pricing still determine which deals actually move forward.

US REITs net acquirers in 2025, buying over $32B in properties | S&P Global Market Intelligence, February 4, 2026

Publicly traded US REITs were net buyers in 2025, acquiring about $32.5 billion of properties while selling roughly $24.4 billion, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Acquisition activity was concentrated in the fall and led by healthcare REIT Welltower, which accounted for nearly $9.8 billion of purchases, largely driven by large senior housing and skilled nursing portfolios. Other active buyers included W. P. Carey and Terreno Realty, reflecting continued interest in net lease and industrial assets. On the disposition side, sales volumes rose sharply year over year, led by Sun Communities and multifamily focused REITs such as Aimco and Elme Communities, highlighting a market where public REITs are selectively recycling capital while leaning back into acquisitions.

Macro signals, micro shifts: Linneman’s 2026 economic outlook | Institutional Real Estate Inc, February 5, 2026

At a recent Walker & Dunlop webcast hosted by Institutional Real Estate, Peter Linneman predicted a measured but constructive outlook for 2026: in his view, the U.S. economy is slowing but not headed for recession, inflation is effectively back near long-run norms once shelter distortions are stripped out, and the Fed is likely to deliver 75–100 bps of rate cuts later this year. Linneman’s outlook for commercial real estate is that today’s stress is primarily supply-driven rather than demand-driven, helping explain why asset values remain well below pre-pandemic peaks despite resilient macro conditions. He expects gradual rebalancing across sectors as new construction falls, with improving prospects in retail and select office markets, continued overbuilding challenges in multifamily, and steady but unspectacular industrial performance. His bottom line: disciplined underwriting, patience, and a sharp focus on supply dynamics and fundamentals rather than betting on a broad, rapid rebound.

From warehouses to apartments, CRE stress spreads to new sectors | GlobeSt, February 6, 2026

Commercial real estate stress is no longer confined to office, with industrial and multifamily increasingly under pressure as higher rates, rising costs, softening demand, and excess supply weigh on performance heading into 2026. Analysts at Fitch Ratings expect CMBS performance to continue deteriorating as office delinquencies peak and strain spreads to other sectors. Industrial is showing early cracks as post-pandemic overbuilding meets weaker logistics demand, while multifamily faces oversupply in parts of the Sun Belt and West after years of record construction. Office remains challenged by stagnant rents and high renovation costs, and some warn hotels could be next if consumer finances weaken. Lenders are responding by demanding capital, transparency, and value-add solutions rather than simple loan extensions, according to GlobeSt.