CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
October 27, 2025 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of October 27, 2025
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
The National Association of Realtors released September data on existing home sales on October 23, showing that the number of sales rose 1.5% month-over-month and 4.15% year-over-year to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units. The median sales price climbed to about $415,200, an increase of 2.1% from a year earlier. Inventory of unsold homes rose to approximately 1.55 million units, translating to roughly a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace.
The uptick in sales suggests that housing demand is responding to improved affordability as mortgage rates drift lower, while rising but still constrained inventory points to a gradual easing of the supply tightness that has kept prices elevated. However, the recovery may be tempered by a weakening labor market and ongoing economic uncertainty. As financing costs ease, some renters may transition into homeownership, potentially softening near-term apartment demand, though affordability barriers are likely to keep many households in the rental market for now.
The University of Michigan released its final readout of the Consumer Sentiment Index for October on October 24. Sentiment fell from 55.1 in September to 53.6 in October, the lowest in five months. Year-ahead inflation expectations reached 4.6%, down slightly from 4.7% in September. However five-year expectations for inflation reached 3.9%, higher than the 3.7% readout for September.
Households are growing more cautious as sentiment weakens and long-term inflation expectations edge higher. This shift could weigh most heavily on property sectors tied to discretionary spending, such as retail and hospitality, while reinforcing resilience in essential and value-oriented segments. Although year-ahead inflation expectations remain elevated near 4%, tariff-related price pressures have yet to fully flow through to consumers, which could prolong uncertainty for both the broader economy and commercial real estate.
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, delayed by the recent federal government shutdown, was released on October 24 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Headline CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year, up modestly from 2.9% in August, while prices increased 0.3% from the prior month. Energy costs were a key driver, with gasoline prices climbing more than 4%, while shelter costs continued to ease, posting their smallest monthly increase since 2021. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 3.0% annually, down a tick from the prior month.
Despite the uptick, inflation did not run as hot as economists expected. Tariff-related cost increases are still working their way through supply chains but have yet to fully reach consumers, helping to temper overall price momentum. While inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target, attention has shifted toward signs of labor market cooling and slower economic growth. Markets are now pricing in near certainty of a 25-basis point rate cut at the October 29 FOMC meeting, a move that could modestly ease borrowing costs across commercial real estate and help revive transaction activity heading into year end.
News
News to know
Despite growing demand for AI inference, or application in real-world situations, data center developers and tenants still show little interest in retrofitting older data centers to support this high-performance computing. From an Electrolux factory in Tennessee to a Chicago office tower, a growing number of underutilized buildings are being converted into artificial intelligence data centers. That activity has accelerated as AI adoption stokes demand for data center capacity close to major markets. But amid this trend of retrofitting industrial and commercial properties into what Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang calls “AI factories,” few firms are undertaking conversions of one asset class that might seem best suited for the job: older data centers.
More than a third of rental listings on Zillow now include some form of concession in September, the highest share on record. According to marketplace's latest report, 37.3% of active listings offered an incentive such as a free month’s rent or complimentary parking, up from 36.7% in August and well above the 14.4% recorded in 2019. Landlords increasingly prefer to offer these short-term perks rather than lower monthly rents. Zillow noted that concessions typically follow seasonal patterns, peaking in winter or early spring and predicted that giveaways are likely to keep climbing in the coming months. However, as such incentives become normalized, property managers may soon need to consider actual price reductions to remain competitive.
Taiwanese restaurant chain Din Tai Fung has become the most profitable full-service restaurant brand in the United States, with its 16 locations averaging about $27 million in annual sales, more than double that of Del Frisco’s or Cheesecake Factory. Its success comes from large 15,000 to 20,000 square foot spaces, fast service, and the constant production of hand-folded soup dumplings. The Times Square location is the company’s top U.S. performer, serving as many as 20,000 dumplings every Saturday, and a 20,000 square foot restaurant is planned for Downtown Brooklyn in 2027. Din Tai Fung’s expansion reflects both the growing influence and spending power of Asian American consumers and the continued popularity of experiential dining in mixed-use urban locations, a positive sign for retail owners and developers focused on food-anchored destinations.
David Rubenstein joins family offices betting on US real estate | Bloomberg, October 23, 2025
Declaration Partners, the investment firm backed by Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, has raised $303 million for its second U.S. real estate fund, drawing capital from family offices and wealthy individuals as investor appetite for property rebounds. More than half of the fund’s commitments are already deployed across multifamily, industrial, and affordable housing projects in Dallas, New York, and Los Angeles. Co-founder Todd Rich said the firm is seeing compelling opportunities as reduced competition and lower asset values create openings below the radar of major institutional players. The move comes as investment sales rose 16 percent in the first half of 2025, signaling renewed momentum in commercial real estate despite continued uncertainty from tariffs and higher borrowing costs.
J.P. Morgan Chase officially opened its new global headquarters at 270 Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, a 60-story, $4 billion tower designed by architect Norman Foster and described by CEO Jamie Dimon as a “labor of love.” The project, which began with the demolition of the previous building in 2019, came in roughly $1 billion over earlier estimates and symbolizes the strength of New York’s office market recovery. The bronze-clad tower is designed to bring employees back five days a week and will house about 10,000 workers by year-end 2025, along with 19 restaurants, coffee shops, a gym, and a pub. While J.P. Morgan will occupy much of the space, some areas may be leased to other tenants. Governor Kathy Hochul praised the project as a model for large-scale redevelopment, underscoring its role in reshaping Midtown’s post-pandemic office landscape.
Renters are conning their way into luxury apartments | Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2025
A Wall Street Journal investigation found that rental-application fraud has surged nationwide, with Atlanta emerging as the epicenter. Some landlords report that up to half of all applications in certain luxury buildings are falsified, often aided by online sellers offering fake pay stubs, employment letters, and even synthetic credit profiles. The trend has been fueled by social media influencers promoting fraudulent “approval packages” as rents far outpace incomes and as new technology makes document forgery easier. Nationally, 73% of apartment owners said they saw a roughly 40% jump in fraud last year, according to the NMHC. The rise stems from a glut of high-end units colliding with a weaker job market and shrinking affordable-housing stock. While landlords are adopting fraud-detection software, many still face mounting losses from unpaid rent and property damage, compounding financial strain across the multifamily sector.
Institutional investors are trimming their exposure to commercial real estate for the first time in 13 years, according to the latest Institutional Real Estate Allocations Monitor by Hodes Weill & Associates and Cornell University. The global survey of 166 institutions found that target allocations to real estate fell by 10 basis points to 10.7% for 2025 as market uncertainty, trade tensions, and higher yields in other asset classes pulled capital away from property. The pullback was most pronounced in the Asia-Pacific region, while allocations in Europe and the Middle East held steady. The report attributes the slowdown partly to investors waiting for better entry points following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which disrupted early-year momentum. Despite the decline, sentiment toward the asset class remains constructive, with expectations for allocations to rebound in 2026 as pricing stabilizes and cross-border investment into the U.S. remains robust.
Lenders extend $11.2B in CRE loans as market pressures mount | GlobeSt, October 23, 2025
Commercial real estate lenders modified $11.2 billion in loans during the third quarter of 2025 as “extend and pretend” remained the prevailing strategy amid high rates and falling valuations, according to CRED iQ. About two-thirds of the changes involved maturity extensions. Hotels led by dollar volume with $5.5 billion across 53 loans, while multifamily saw the highest number of modifications at 55 loans totaling $1.4 billion. Office accounted for another $1.4 billion, followed by mixed-use at $892 million. Larger loans dominated, with those above $50 million making up more than 70 percent of the total, highlighting that lenders are concentrating their workouts on bigger exposures.
Defined contribution plans are showing greater appetite for private real estate, with more than $45 billion in net assets invested as of December 2024, according to the 2025 Private Real Estate in Defined Contribution Survey. Of that total, $37.5 billion was held in dedicated real estate DC vehicles and $7.8 billion in institutional open-end funds. The findings point to steady growth in private real estate options available to retirement plan participants and a rising share of core and diversified exposure through institutional fund structures, underscoring the asset class’s expanding role within defined contribution portfolios.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Hello uncertainty, my old friend, we're back to cautious optimism again
What if the economy could sing? 🎵 On this week’s CRE Exchange, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry examine the Fed’s Beige Book, manufacturing/non-manufacturing business outlooks, homebuilder sentiment, and banking data, then welcome Peter Norman on to the show to share insights on Canada’s economy and CRE market.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, October 28
8:00AM: Curbline Properties, Earnings Call
9:00AM: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Data Release
9:00AM: Welltower Inc., Earnings Call
10:00AM: Consumer Confidence, Data Release
10:00AM: Brixmor Property Group, Earnings Call
10:00AM: NETSTREIT, Earnings Call
1:00PM: Kilroy Realty Corporation, Earnings Call
2:00PM: Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Earnings Call
Wednesday, October 29
8:30AM: Urban Edge Properties, Earnings Call
10:00AM: Pending Home Sales
11:00AM: Highwoods Properties, Earnings Call
11:00AM: Regency Centers, Earnings Call
11:00AM: W.P Carey, Inc., Earnings Call
11:00AM: Equity Residential, Earnings Call
12:00PM: Acadia Realty Trust, Earnings Call
2:00PM: FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, October 30
8:00AM: DigitalBridge Group, Inc., Earnings Call
8:30AM: Kimco Realty, Earnings Call
10:00AM: STAG Industrial, Earnings Call
8:30AM: Whitestone REIT, Earnings Call
11:00AM: Medical Properties Trust, Earnings Call
12:00PM: Public Storage, Earnings Call
Friday, October 31
9:00AM: Federal Realty, Earnings Call
9:00AM: Gaming & Leisure Properties, Earnings Call
10:00AM: VICI Properties, Earnings Call
10:00AM: Cousins Properties, Earnings Call
11:00AM: CubeSmart, Earnings Call
12:00PM: COPT Defense Properties, Earnings Call
Upcoming industry events
October 27 – October 30: NCREIF Fall Conference
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Research Director
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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