CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
April 20, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of April 20, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
Housing Market Conditions (Existing Home Sales and the Housing Market Index)
The National Association of Realtors reported on April 13 that existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 1.0% year over year. All four regions posted monthly declines, led by the Northeast at 8.5%. Inventory rose 3.0% to 1.36 million units, a 4.1-month supply. The median price increased 1.4% year over year to $408,800, marking the 33rd consecutive month of annual gains. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.18% from 6.05% in February. NAR revised its 2026 existing-home sales forecast lower, citing rising mortgage rates.
Separately, the National Association of Home Builders released the Housing Market Index for March on April 14, with the headline index rising one point to 38, still well below the 50 breakeven and marking the 23rd straight month in contractionary territory. Current sales conditions edged up to 42, sales expectations gained two points to 49, and buyer traffic rose three points to 25. Price cuts were reported by 37% of builders, with incentives used by 64% for the 12th consecutive month above 60%.
Both releases point to a housing market that remains stuck. Existing-home sales at 3.98 million are well below historical norms, and builder sentiment is range-bound in the mid-to-high 30s despite multiple Fed rate cuts. The mortgage rate uptick from 6.05% to 6.18% and NAR's downward revision to its 2026 outlook signal that the rate-lock effect continues to suppress turnover, limiting housing-related consumer spending and keeping transaction volumes depressed. The practical effect is that more households stay in rentals longer, helping anchor apartment occupancy even as new supply works through the system. Investor and second-home buyer share ticked up to 18%, worth watching as a potential indicator of shifting capital flows into the single-family rental market. With national prices still rising and rates above 6%, the buy-versus-rent calculus remains tilted toward renting for a wide segment of households, and that dynamic is unlikely to shift without a more meaningful decline in borrowing costs.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
The National Federation for Independent Business (NFIB) released the Small Business Economic Trends report for March 2026 on April 14. The headline Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, dropping below its 52-year average of 98 for the first time since April 2025. Eight of ten components declined. Earnings trends drove the largest drag, falling 11 points to a net -25%, followed by expected business conditions, down 7 points to a net 11%. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, well above its 68 historical average. Capital outlay plans fell to 16%, the lowest since November 2009, and actual capital expenditures over the prior six months dropped to 51%, down 9 points year to date. Unfilled job openings held at 32%, still above the 24% long-run average, and hiring plans were unchanged at a net 12%. A net 25% raised selling prices, up 1 point, and 62% of owners reported some degree of supply chain disruption, up 3 points, with the NFIB citing Iran conflict-related shipping constraints as a growing factor. The average short-term loan rate eased to 7.9%, down 0.3 points.
The sharp pullback in earnings, capital spending plans, and expansion sentiment points to a Main Street economy that is retrenching rather than growing. Capital outlays at a 16-year low suggest very limited appetite for facility build-outs or lease expansions. Rising supply chain disruptions and persistent inflation add further margin pressure, reducing willingness to take on new space commitments. Hiring plans near their historical average provide some floor under employment-driven demand, but the overall trajectory argues for caution in underwriting tenant credit and revenue growth tied to small business activity.
News
News to know
News to know
Iran conflict sparks new surge in CRE construction costs | GlobeSt, April 13, 2026
The war in Iran has sent energy and materials costs sharply higher, adding a new layer of pressure to an already strained CRE construction market. Diesel prices hit $5.643 per gallon in early April, up 55.1% year-over-year, while commercial electricity averaged 13.64 cents per kilowatt-hour in January, up 6.4% annually. Aluminum imports are being disrupted by Gulf supply constraints and compounded by a 50% tariff on aluminum, steel, and copper-heavy goods imposed in April 2026. From February 2020 to February 2026, final demand for private construction rose 44.5% against 26% overall inflation, and AGC chief economist Ken Simonson warned that more owners will pull back on project starts if cost pressures persist.
Housing shortage is at least 10 million homes, White House says | Bloomberg, April 13, 2026
The Council of Economic Advisers released a new estimate putting the U.S. single-family housing shortage at 10 million or more units, higher than prior government and private sector figures, including Freddie Mac's 2024 estimate of 3.7 million and NAR's 2021 estimate of 5.5 million. The report argues that if homebuilding had maintained its historical pace rather than collapsing after 2008, the gap would not exist. The release comes as policymakers ramp up housing efforts ahead of midterm elections: the Senate passed the Housing for the 21st Century Act on an 89 to 10 vote, and President Trump signed two executive orders in March aimed at easing mortgage credit and streamlining environmental review for development. The administration also directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, which briefly lowered rates before the Iran conflict pushed them back up. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate currently stands at 6.37%, more than double levels from five years ago.
Nearly 60 million square feet of life science space was delivered across 11 U.S. hubs between 2020 and 2025, but more than half remains vacant, according to Savills. The overhang is sharpest among recent completions, with 73.4 percent of 2025 deliveries still available and 34 buildings completed since 2023 without a single tenant. Boston-Cambridge and the San Francisco Bay Area account for roughly 58 percent of total deliveries. Reduced venture capital funding, federal research cuts, and tariff-related drug pricing pressure have led tenants to scale back, pushing vacancy above 20 percent in several major markets and driving landlords toward heavier concessions. Savills noted that conversions of lab space to other uses remain limited due to specialized infrastructure costs, and that the sector's long-term outlook is supported by advances in mRNA, gene editing, and AI-driven drug discovery.
New York City developers are splitting large apartment projects into 99-unit pieces to avoid stricter requirements under the 485-x tax program, which imposes a $40 per hour construction wage floor and additional affordable housing mandates on buildings with 100 or more units. At least 42 such projects are in development across Brooklyn, the Bronx and Queens. Permit applications for 50 to 99-unit buildings tripled in 2025 relative to the prior five-year average. Construction lender S3 Capital has financed more than 50 projects under the program, none above 99 units. The practice is legal but has drawn union opposition, and city officials said they are reviewing the issue. NYC multifamily starts were 38% lower in Q1 2025 compared to the year-ago period before 485-x took effect.
AI boom brings new office demand, but not for long | GlobeSt, April 15, 2026
AI and related industries are generating pockets of new office demand today, but Newmark projects the effect will fade by decade's end as automation reshapes knowledge work. The firm's base case forecasts office-using employment growth of just 0.3% from 2026 to 2030, with the national vacancy rate edging up roughly 10 basis points to about 21.5%. Alternative scenarios range from 19.5% vacancy in the best case to 23.5% in the downside view. Current demand remains concentrated in the San Francisco Bay Area but is spreading to Manhattan, Seattle, Los Angeles and Austin. Entry-level and routine office roles face the greatest displacement risk, while higher-skill, relationship-driven positions are more likely to be augmented than replaced. Newmark expects generic back-office environments to face the most pressure, while modern, collaboration-oriented properties in strong locations with diverse tenant mixes are better positioned to outperform as the structure of work evolves.
US equity REITs raised $2.27 billion in March, down 68.1% from February and 60.0% year over year, split between $1.47 billion in common equity and $800 million in debt. Healthcare REIT Janus Living led with $966 million through its IPO at $20 per share, with net proceeds directed to parent Healthpeak Properties for acquisitions. Service Properties Trust raised $500 million via a follow-on at $1.20 per share to redeem near-term debt, and Realty Income issued $800 million in 4.750% notes due 2033. By sector through Q1, retail led at $3.26 billion, followed by specialty at $2.60 billion and office at $1.75 billion.
Historic LIHTC expansion widens financing gaps for developers | Bisnow, April 16, 2026
The OBBBA increased 9% LIHTC allocations by 12% starting in 2026 and lowered the private activity bond threshold from 50% to 25%, changes Novogradac estimated could finance 1.2 million additional affordable units over the next decade. But the larger credit supply has pushed per-credit equity pricing down to around 84 cents nationally, with wider dispersion across deals. Developers receive thinner equity proceeds and must rely more on gap financing. Doubled investment caps at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have not yet translated into new capital, and softer multifamily fundamentals, including a 1.7% annual rent decline per Apartment List, are adding pressure. The 21st Century Road to Housing Act, now moving through Congress, could help by expanding bank participation in LIHTC investments.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | The growing case for real estate secondaries
Real estate secondaries are growing, and the current environment is accelerating that trend.
In the latest CRE Exchange, Cole Perry sits down with Chris Muoio, Managing Director of Data and Research at Madison International Realty, for a practical breakdown of the direct secondaries market: how deals are sourced, underwritten, and structured, and where the opportunity is concentrating right now.
Our research in the news | Open-air malls lead retail megadeals in Los Angeles
Open-air malls are driving a retail investment resurgence in the Los Angeles area, with landmark deals like the $530M sale of Victoria Gardens highlighting surging investor appetite for lifestyle centers that offer community-focused experiences. Data from the Altus Research team, cited in the article, underscores this momentum: single-property retail transactions in the LA metro rose nearly 30% year-over-year in 2025, with dollar volume climbing from $4.4B to $4.6B.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, April 21
8:30 AM: Retail Sales (Mar)
10:00 AM: Business Inventories (Feb)
10:00 AM: Leading Economic Indicators (Feb)
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales (Mar)
Friday, April 24
9:45 AM: S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI (Apr)
9:45 AM: S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment - Final (Apr)
Upcoming industry events
April 19 – April 23: CCIM Spring Forum (Philadelphia, PA)
May 5 – May 7: ULI Spring Meeting (Nashville, TN)
May 17 – May 20: MBA CRE Servicing Solutions Conference (San Diego, CA)
May 18 – May 20: ICSC Las Vegas
May 19 – May 20: Real Estate Research Institute Annual Conference (Chicago, IL)
May 20 – May 21: NAIOP I.CON East (Jersey City, NJ)
May 28 – May 29: AREUEA National Conference (Washington, DC)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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