CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
April 6, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of April 6, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
S&P Dow Jones Indices released the January 2026 Case-Shiller Home Price Index on March 31. The U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% annual gain, down from 1.1% in December. The 20-City Composite rose 1.2% year over year, easing from 1.4%, while the 10-City Composite gained 1.7%. Before seasonal adjustment, the national index slipped 0.1% month over month. New York led all 20 cities with a 4.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 4.6% and Cleveland at 3.6%, while Tampa fell 2.5%. Notably, the national index rose 2.2% over the first half of the trailing year but declined 1.3% over the second half, compressing annual gains below 1%. With CPI running at 2.4% over the same period, real home values declined modestly year over year for the eighth consecutive month.
Continued erosion of real housing wealth could weigh on consumer confidence and housing-related spending over time. The geographic split matters for multifamily: markets leading on price gains like New York and Chicago tend to have tighter rental pipelines, reinforcing occupancy, while weaker Sun Belt markets like Tampa face overlapping softness in both for-sale and rental fundamentals. With mortgage rates still near 6% and real values edging lower, homeownership remains out of reach for many households, extending renter tenure and providing a floor under multifamily demand nationally. If price declines broaden beyond the Sun Belt, it would signal a more meaningful shift in household balance sheets with implications for consumer spending and leasing activity across retail and service-oriented sectors.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February 2026 on March 31. Job openings were little changed at 6.9 million, with the openings rate holding at 4.2 percent. Hires fell sharply to 4.8 million, down 498,000 on the month and 387,000 year over year, pushing the hires rate to 3.1 percent, the lowest since April 2020. Quits held at 3.0 million, and layoffs were steady at 1.7 million. Weakness was concentrated in accommodation and food services, which saw declines in openings, hires, and quits, while construction hires also fell 88,000. January openings were revised up by 294,000 to 7.2 million.
The sharp drop in hires is the headline for CRE. At the lowest rate in nearly six years, the data suggest employers are pulling back on new headcount even as layoffs remain contained, a labor market that is freezing rather than breaking. The March payrolls report, released days later, partially offset that concern with a 178,000 gain, but job growth was concentrated in health care and construction rather than the office-using and consumer-facing sectors that most directly drive leasing demand. Stable payrolls support rent collections and occupancy, but the absence of broad-based hiring limits expansion-driven leasing, particularly in office and discretionary retail. Weakness in accommodation and food services hires may signal softer operational momentum heading into the spring travel season, a flag for hospitality owners. For capital markets, the combination of cooling hiring activity and moderate wage growth (3.5 percent year over year in March) keeps the door open for Fed rate cuts later this year, though the rebound in headline payrolls reduces any urgency. Treasury yields and borrowing costs are likely to remain range bound near term, with meaningful relief for refinancing and transaction activity still dependent on clearer signs of sustained labor market softening.
The U.S. Census Bureau released its advance estimate of retail and food services sales for February 2026 on April 1, showing total spending of $738.4 billion, up 0.6 percent from January and 3.7 percent from a year earlier. The January reading was revised slightly higher, from a 0.2 percent decline to a 0.1 percent decline. Retail trade sales rose 0.6 percent on the month and 3.5 percent year over year. Nonstore retailers posted a 7.5 percent annual gain, while food services and drinking places were up 5.2 percent from February 2025. For the three months ending in February, total sales were up 3.1 percent compared to the same period last year. As with all advance retail data, figures are nominal and not adjusted for price changes, meaning real spending growth was likely more modest.
The February rebound suggests the consumer is still spending at a pace that supports tenant revenues across retail and food service categories, even if real growth is weaker once inflation is factored in. The continued strength in nonstore retail reinforces demand for last-mile distribution and fulfillment space, while food services growth above 5 percent is a positive signal for restaurant and experiential retail operators. That said, the nominal nature of the data makes it difficult to separate volume gains from price pass-through, particularly in categories affected by tariff-related cost increases. For the broader rate outlook, steady consumer activity gives the Fed less urgency to ease, keeping borrowing costs elevated and reinforcing a cautious posture across CRE capital markets.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2026 Employment Situation on April 3, showing nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000, rebounding from a revised negative 133,000 in February. The unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent. Health care led gains at 76,000, though 35,000 of that reflected physicians returning from a strike. Construction added 26,000, and transportation and warehousing gained 21,000. Federal government employment fell another 18,000, extending a cumulative decline of 355,000 (11.8 percent) since October 2024. Financial activities shed 15,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent monthly and 3.5 percent annually, while the average workweek edged down to 34.2 hours. January was revised up 34,000 to 160,000, but February was revised further down to negative 133,000, leaving the net two-month revision at negative 7,000. On a 12 month basis, payroll employment has shown little net change.
The rebound from February is welcome, but the composition is narrow. Excluding the strike return, health care added roughly 41,000 jobs, while the sectors most tied to CRE leasing demand, including professional and business services, information, retail, and leisure and hospitality, were all flat. That pattern has persisted for months and points to stable but not strengthening tenant demand. Continued federal workforce reductions remain a direct headwind for office markets in Washington, D.C., and government-heavy metros, and financial activities losses add to traditional CBD office pressure. Wage growth at 3.5 percent and a shorter workweek suggest easing labor cost pressures, a modest positive for the inflation outlook. For the Fed, the report likely changes little: job growth is positive but concentrated in noncyclical sectors, keeping borrowing costs range-bound and cap rate compression limited.
News
News to know
News to know
Senior housing is drawing a surge of capital as demographics and tight supply drive strong fundamentals. HUD-backed senior housing mortgages rose 89% year over year in 2025 to a record $6 billion, supported by HUD's new "Express Lane" streamlined approval process. Occupancy has recovered to 90%, above pre-pandemic levels, while inventory is at its lowest since 2006. Rents rose 4.4% last year as inventory grew just 0.6%, and NIC projects demand will outpace supply by 360,000 units by 2030. Construction fell for the 16th consecutive quarter to fewer than 1,900 units in primary markets. More than 86% of investors plan to allocate capital to the sector this year, per JLL, with lending focused on acquisitions and refinancing rather than new construction. The demographic catalyst: 10,000 baby boomers now turn 80 every day.
(Risk) weight reduction | Connect CRE, March 30, 2026
Two proposals for reforms to bank capital requirements were issued earlier this month by the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC. The standardized approach proposal, which applies to most banks, would reduce risk weights for non-construction CRE loans from 100% to 95% and lower the minimum risk weight for senior securitization positions from 20% to 15%. The Basel III proposal, which replaces a 2023 version the industry opposed, would reduce overall capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks by 2.4%, replace the dual-track capital framework with a single approach, and lower risk weights for mortgages and mortgage servicing assets. CREFC noted that the Basel III framework allows for more granular capital treatment of CRE than the standardized approach, but flagged that mezzanine and SPE financing structures continue to be penalized under a definition requiring a direct property security interest, a holdover from the 2023 version. The public comment period for both proposals runs through June 18.
University cities emerge as hidden hotspots for AI-driven displacement | GlobeSt, March 30, 2026
A new study from Tufts University's Fletcher School finds that AI-driven automation risk extends well beyond major tech hubs, with smaller university cities emerging as highly vulnerable labor markets. The Tufts AI Jobs Risk Index measures exposure both as a share of local employment and in absolute terms. By workforce share, metros like San Jose, Washington D.C., Durham, San Francisco, Seattle, Austin, and Boston rank among the most exposed, alongside smaller university towns such as Boulder, Ann Arbor, Provo, and Madison. By total job count, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, and Atlanta face the largest projected displacement due to the scale of employment in AI-sensitive occupations. The study highlights a key geographic divergence: high-percentage risk metros often do not overlap with the largest absolute job losses, meaning even modest displacement in smaller, highly educated markets can represent an outsized hit to the local economy.
Behind cryptocurrency’s commercial real estate moment | Commercial Observer, March 30, 2026
Cryptocurrency tokenization is gaining traction in commercial real estate, with Deloitte projecting $4 trillion of global real estate will be tokenized by 2035, up from $300 billion today. Cardone Capital launched a fund in late 2024 that paired a $72.5 million multifamily acquisition in Melbourne, Florida, with $15 million in Bitcoin, directing property cash flow toward additional Bitcoin purchases. Starwood Property Trust CEO Barry Sternlicht has expressed interest in offering tokenized shares of Starwood's real estate assets, though current securities laws prohibit REITs from doing so. Proponents argue tokenization improves transparency, reduces transaction friction, and opens CRE investment to retail investors. Skeptics counter that crypto volatility, thin secondary market liquidity for property tokens, limited regulatory oversight, and valuation challenges remain significant barriers, with some noting that REITs already provide regulated, liquid access to diversified real estate.
SRS Real Estate Partners' John Darrow argues that today's oil price environment more closely resembles the 1990 and 2008 episodes than the late 1970s, where energy spikes acted as a drag on growth rather than a catalyst for persistent inflation. Because the Fed's preferred inflation gauge excludes energy, higher oil prices that slow consumption and hiring could shift the policy conversation toward growth risks and eventually lower rates, particularly as a new Fed Chair is expected in the coming months. At the retail level, Darrow expects spending to consolidate around value, convenience, and necessity, favoring big box discounters, grocery anchored centers, automotive repair tenants, and quick service restaurants over discretionary formats.
Multifamily loans from rate shock years show hidden stress | GlobeSt, April 1, 2026
A Trepp report finds that stress in the GSE multifamily market is concentrated in loans originated during the 2022 to 2023 rate shock rather than building broadly. More than 32% of balances from those vintages carry debt service coverage ratios below 1.40x, compared with roughly 20% for more recent originations, and the 2022 cohort has the highest share of loans below 1.0x DSCR. Notably, the pressure is rate-driven, not leverage-driven: the 2022 to 2023 vintages also have the most conservative LTV profiles, meaning borrowers locked in higher coupons as SOFR and the 10-year Treasury repriced sharply. Trepp concludes that the primary risk is cash flow compression rather than credit loss, as stronger equity positions provide a buffer, but thinner margins leave less room to absorb rising expenses or slowing rent growth.
Maine is set to become the first U.S. state to impose a moratorium on large data center construction, with a bill expected to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate after clearing the House. The legislation would freeze new data center projects of 20 megawatts or more until November 2027 to allow the state to assess environmental and power grid impacts. Gov. Janet Mills has signaled support, provided an exemption is included for a previously planned project in Jay. Maine's residential electricity prices are among the nation's highest, and officials worry that surging data center power demand could drive costs further upward. The bill is being closely watched by lawmakers in at least 10 other states advancing similar restrictions, while local moratoriums have already been enacted in parts of Michigan and Indiana, and major cities including Denver and Detroit are considering bans. Site selection consultants say the growing political opposition is beginning to limit where developers are willing to look. At the federal level, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced proposals last month to temporarily pause data center construction nationwide.
Developers see early signs of recovery in multifamily construction market | GlobeSt, April 3, 2026
The NMHC's March 2026 quarterly survey of apartment construction activity points to tentative stabilization after three years of declining starts. Of 42 respondents surveyed between March 4 and 18, 31% reported starting more projects than three months ago, while just 12% reported fewer. Construction delays are also easing, with 31% reporting fewer delays and only 2% reporting more. Labor costs remain largely in line with inflation for 69% of firms, and material costs are tracking similarly for 62%. Looking ahead, optimism builds over a longer horizon: 68% expect conditions to improve over the next 6 to 12 months, nearly 70% expect equity financing to become more available, and 37% expect debt financing to ease. Near term cost expectations are mostly stable, though 24% of respondents anticipate material costs rising faster than inflation over the next 6 to 12 months. NMHC Chief Economist Chris Bruen cautioned that lower costs partly reflect depressed activity levels and that a meaningful pickup in development could begin to pressure labor and material supply chains.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Hot inflation, soft growth, and a CRE market caught in the middle
What are more than 100 economists saying about the 2026 outlook, and what does it mean for CRE?
On the latest CRE Exchange, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry walk through the February PPI release, the March FOMC decision, January new home sales data, and findings from the Philly Fed, FOMC SEP, and Wall Street Journal economic surveys to give the CRE community a read on where things stand.
Insight article | US commercial real estate debt markets close 2025 on a stronger note
US CRE borrowers are seeing real financing relief for the first time in years.
All-in debt costs fell an average of 66 basis points year-over-year in Q4 2025, across all property types, measured from over 1,500 quotes in our latest Debt Capital Markets Survey.
Term SOFR dropped to 3.99%, down 69 basis points year-over-year (and down 34 basis points quarter-over-quarter)
Year-over-year, all product types posted spread compression
Lender competition picked up: borrowers received an average of 5.2 competitive quotes, up from 4.7 a year ago
Not every asset class moved in the same direction, and questions remain around how yields and spreads hold as trade, fiscal, and geopolitical uncertainty plays out in 2026.
Research contribution | Why prices for D.C.-area retail properties are spiking right now
Altus Group's Research Team provided key data for a Bisnow report on surging D.C.-area retail property prices. The figures show national retail prices rose 12.3% per square foot between 2024 and 2025, while the D.C. market outpaced that significantly with a 27.2% jump, a dramatic reversal from a 30% decline the prior year. Brokers attribute the spike to a flood of new investors competing for limited grocery-anchored product, with firms like Federal Realty making major acquisitions and CBRE's D.C. team managing roughly $3.3B in active listings.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, April 7
8:30AM: Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
3:00PM: Consumer Credit (Feb)
Wednesday, April 8
2:00PM: Minutes of Fed's May FOMC Meeting
Thursday, April 9
8:30AM: Personal Income (Feb)
8:30AM: Personal Spending (Feb)
8:30AM: PCE Index (Feb)
8:30AM: Core PCE Index (Feb)
8:30AM: GDP (Q4)
8:30AM: Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 4)
10:00AM: Wholesale Inventories (Feb)
Friday, April 10
8:30AM: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Mar)
8:30AM: Core CPI (Mar)
10:00AM: Factory Orders (Feb)
10:00AM: Consumer Sentiment (Apr)
Upcoming industry events
April 7 – April 9: IREM PropertyCon (Austin, TX)
April 14 – April 17: SIOR Spring Event (Palm Springs, CA)
April 19 – April 23: CCIM Spring Forum (Philadelphia, PA)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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