CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
June 22, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of June 22, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
Building Permits, Housing Starts, and the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell two points to 35 in June, released June 15, as builder sentiment continues to track well below the 50 breakeven threshold. Current sales conditions dropped two points to 38, while the six-month sales outlook held at 45 and buyer traffic remained at 25. Price cutting picked up, with 35% of builders reporting reductions in June versus 32% in May, and 62% using sales incentives, the 15th consecutive month that share has reached 60% or higher.
The following day, the Census Bureau reported that total housing starts fell 15.4% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, down 8.7% year over year. Single-family starts declined 1.9% from April to 882,000, while multifamily starts dropped sharply to 284,000. Permits were more stable, slipping just 0.7% to 1.413 million overall, with single-family permits up 0.6% to 886,000. Completions fell 8.1% month over month and 14.2% below May 2025 at 1.313 million.
Together, the data paint a picture that suggests builders are not confident, incentives are widespread, and actual production is pulling back. Multifamily starts at 284,000 represent a significant step down, and with completions also falling sharply year over year, the supply wave that pressured Sun Belt apartment rents through 2025 is continuing to thin. That contraction supports the case for multifamily rent stabilization and gradual occupancy recovery over the next 12 to 18 months, with timing varying by market.
On the single-family side, despite persistent builder caution and broad use of incentives, homeownership remains out of reach for a wide swath of buyers, reinforcing renter retention and multifamily demand. For CRE capital markets, supply restraint across residential property types reduces downside risk to NOI assumptions and strengthens the relative value case for existing multifamily assets in a higher-for-longer rate environment.
The U.S. Census Bureau released its advance estimate of retail and food services sales for May 2026 on June 17, showing total spending of $763.7 billion, up 0.9% from April and 6.9% above May 2025. The March-through-May period was up 5.3% year over year. The April month-over-month gain was revised slightly lower, from 0.5% to 0.4%. Retail trade sales rose 1.0% on the month and 7.5% from a year ago. Nonstore retailers led annual growth at 12.2%, while food services and drinking places were up a more modest 2.7% year over year. These figures are not adjusted for inflation.
These figures are not adjusted for inflation, so the 6.9% annual gain likely overstates real volume growth. That said, the breadth of the monthly increase and the strong annual pace suggest consumer spending held up heading into summer. The 12.2% annual surge in nonstore retailers is the standout, and while it reflects ongoing structural shift away from physical stores, it is a positive signal for last-mile logistics and infill industrial demand. Food services growth of 2.7% year over year was the softest category, which is worth monitoring for restaurant and experiential retail landlords. For the Fed, a strong nominal retail print does little to accelerate the case for cuts, keeping the rate backdrop for CRE borrowers largely unchanged.
The National Association of Realtors released pending home sales data for May on June 17. Pending sales rose 3.8% month over month and were up 4.8% year over year, with all four regions posting gains on both measures. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the move to pent-up demand and noted that buyers appear to be accepting mortgage rates above 6% as the new normal rather than waiting for relief.
The breadth of the gain, including the inventory-constrained Northeast, suggests this is not purely a Sun Belt or incentive-driven story. Because pending sales lead existing-home closings by one to two months, the data point to modest transaction volume gains in June and July. For multifamily, a sustained pickup in ownership activity could begin to pull some renter demand toward the for-sale market, though affordability constraints remain significant with rates holding above 6%. Improving housing transaction volume also tends to support adjacent retail categories tied to home furnishings and services, and the regional breadth of the gain signals that consumer willingness to make large financial commitments is stabilizing across more markets.
News
News to know
News to know
Trump's federal building selloff faces $26 billion repair hole | Bloomberg, June 16, 2026
The GSA has tallied more than $25.8 billion in deferred maintenance across federal buildings, including at least 62 properties requiring repairs of $100 million or more, complicating the Trump administration's push to consolidate and sell off government real estate. GSA chief Ed Forst, a former Goldman Sachs and Cushman & Wakefield executive, says congressional rules requiring approval for any repair project above roughly $4 million have slowed remediation efforts, with the average prospectus taking 435 days to clear before work can even be bid. Congress has also diverted more than $15 billion from the Federal Buildings Fund over time, and in fiscal year 2025 alone, more than $1 billion in repairs went unfunded after proposals expired. An independent advisory board estimates the true maintenance backlog may exceed $50 billion.
New York's state legislature has passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act, which would halt permit approvals for at least one year on data centers with a peak load above 20 MW, and the bill now sits on Gov. Kathy Hochul's desk. The moratorium would put roughly $10 billion in planned data center projects at risk, with 51 large-load projects currently seeking grid connections totaling 12,670 MW by 2030, more than twice New York City's total consumption. Projects above 5 MW would also face new energy efficiency standards and prevailing wage requirements, and all new developments would require community public hearings. New York carries the second-highest commercial electricity rate in North America at 14 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to JLL, and opponents of the moratorium argue that restricting development would undermine both AI infrastructure investment and national competitiveness. Hochul, who has backed more than $20 billion in semiconductor and AI-related subsidies since 2022, has until year-end to sign or veto the bill while facing reelection.
Hotel owners are rebelling against marriott's loyalty program | Wall Street Journal, June 16, 2026
Owners representing nearly 1,000 Marriott-branded hotels have formally demanded that Marriott revise the economics of its Bonvoy loyalty program after the company disclosed that co-branded credit card fee revenue is expected to jump 35% this year to nearly $1 billion, up from $716 million in 2025 and $410 million in 2019. Franchisees, who bear the cost of honoring loyalty point redemptions, say they were previously told the program was roughly breaking even and argue they should receive compensation on par with what third-party online travel agencies like Expedia pay. Marriott has responded by sharing limited program financial data for the first time and increasing owner compensation for loyalty stays on high-demand nights, but owners say the concessions fall short. The dispute highlights a structural tension in the asset-light hotel franchise model, where brand revenue and property-level economics can diverge sharply, and comes as hotel REIT shares have been flat to down since January 2020 while Marriott's stock has nearly tripled over the same period.
The FOMC voted unanimously 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June meeting, the fourth consecutive pause, citing inflation uncertainty tied to the war in Iran. The decision came at Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, despite Trump nominating him with expectations of faster rate relief. Industry participants noted the hold was widely anticipated, with one executive quoted saying the sector has built strategy around the assumption that meaningful rate relief is not coming in 2026. For CRE, the continued hold keeps borrowing costs elevated, sustains pressure on floating-rate borrowers and maturing loans, and leaves cap rate compression limited heading into the second half of the year.
Big Tech concentrating office footprints in premium markets | REJournals, June 17, 2026
Major technology companies are no longer shrinking their office portfolios broadly, but consolidating into fewer, higher-quality buildings in select markets, according to a new Newmark report. Rather than maintaining large, dispersed footprints, big tech firms are gravitating toward flagship campuses and trophy assets in innovation hubs with deep labor pools, including San Francisco, Seattle, and New York, with AI growth serving as a key demand driver as firms cite in-person collaboration as a productivity necessity for specialized teams. Newmark notes that space per employee has declined less than many predicted, as employers continue to lease for peak attendance days rather than average utilization. New office supply has slowed considerably, helping tighten the gap between supply and demand in top-tier submarkets, and for landlords, winning tech tenants increasingly requires premium amenities, ground-floor activation, and transit access. Class B product continues to face elevated vacancy as the performance gap between trophy and commodity space widens.
Real estate is next bet for debt investors avoiding private credit | Bloomberg, June 18, 2026
Private credit turmoil is redirecting debt capital toward real estate, according to Pretium co-president Jon Pruzan. Pruzan cited the appeal of loans secured by physical assets at a time when software sector volatility has pressured corporate private credit and raised AI-related obsolescence concerns. Pretium, which owns roughly 90,000 single-family rental homes, is targeting regional homebuilders that previously relied on bank financing, charging 600-650 bps over SOFR and generating mid-teen levered returns. Investors face five-year lockups with no redemption windows in exchange for those spreads. Pretium acknowledged ongoing political pressure, including pending legislation that would restrict institutional single-family home purchases, while arguing the firm provides a service to renters who cannot afford to buy.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Insight | US CRE transaction analysis – Q1 2026
US CRE has its own version of shrinkflation, and it's most visible in multifamily.
The median apartment building that sold in Q1 2026 was 9,713 square feet, which is 23% smaller than the median that sold in Q4 2019. Over that same period, median deal sizes rose 47.4%.
Buyers are writing record checks for older, smaller buildings, all while the price per square foot reaches an all-time high and the physical asset continues to contract.
Report | Q1 2026 US CRE investment and transactions quarterly
The broad-based improvement that defined CRE debt markets in 2025 gave way to a more divided market in Q1 2026. Analysis by Omar Eltorai and Andrew Pabon indicates that floating and fixed-rate borrowers landed in very different places, and the gap between sectors widened. Our Q1 2026 US Debt Capital Markets Survey captures 1,866 lending quotes from 110 CRE debt professionals. Read the full report - or sign up to participate in our Q2 survey.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, June 24
9:45 AM: US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
9:45 AM: US Flash Services PMI (Jun)
Wednesday, June 25
10:00 AM: New Home Sales (May)
Thursday, June 26
8:30 AM: Durable Goods (May)
8:30 AM: GDP - 3rd Estimate (Q1)
8:30 AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Jun 20)
8:30 AM: Personal Income (May)
8:30 AM: Consumer Spending (May)
8:30 AM: PCE Price Index (May)
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey (Jun)
Friday, June 27
8:30 AM: Advance Economic Indicators (May)
8:30 AM: Wholesale Inventories (May)
8:30 AM: Retail Inventories (May)
10:00 AM: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final (Jun)
Upcoming Industry Events
June 27 – June 30: BOMA International Conference & Expo (Long Beach, CA)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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