CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
June 15, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of June 15, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
The National Federation of Independent Business released its May 2026 Small Business Economic Trends report on June 9. The headline Optimism Index slipped 0.6 points to 95.3, the weakest reading since October 2024 and a third consecutive month below the 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points to 91, well above its long-run average of 68. Hiring plans fell 4 points to a net 9 percent, the lowest since May 2020, and the share of owners reporting unfilled job openings dropped 5 points to 29 percent, a six-year low. Capital expenditure intentions edged down to 16 percent, matching March 2009 levels. The net share raising selling prices jumped 6 points to 36 percent, nearly triple the long-run average of 13 percent. Labor costs hit a record high in survey history as a top problem, cited by 14 percent of respondents.
Small business tenants are pulling back on hiring and capital outlays at the same time pricing pressure is intensifying, which limits both the pace and the predictability of near-term leasing demand across retail, light industrial, and small-bay office. A six-year low in unfilled positions and the lowest hiring intentions since the early pandemic point to weaker absorption from this tenant cohort heading into the back half of the year. Capital spending matching its post-financial-crisis floor is a direct headwind for owner-user and flex space demand. The aggressive uptick in pricing plans, combined with a record share citing labor costs as a top problem, suggests margin compression and rising credit risk for service-oriented and neighborhood retail tenants, even as the corporate side of the economy continues to add jobs.
The National Association of Realtors reported on June 9 that existing-home sales rose 3.2 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million, up 3.2 percent from a year ago and the highest level since December 2025. Sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and were unchanged in the West. The median existing-home price climbed to a record May high of $429,300, with inventory at 4.5 months of supply. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the gain to improving affordability and noted that mortgage rates, while higher than earlier in 2026, remain below year-ago levels and close to the long-term historical average.
The May print is the most encouraging housing data in months and a meaningful upside surprise. Higher transaction volume should support a modest pickup in brokerage and mortgage origination activity, and any sustained improvement in pending sales would carry through to closings in July and August. Even with the rebound, the absolute level remains well below pre-pandemic norms and 4.5 months of supply still tilts the market toward buyers, with builders leaning on rate buydowns and concessions to move inventory. For multifamily, the lock-in effect continues to suppress new for-sale listings, and the affordability gap between owning and renting stays wide enough to keep many households in the rental pool. The bigger swing factor remains the path of mortgage rates, which depends on inflation data and the Fed's posture rather than housing fundamentals.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May 2026 Consumer Price Index on June 10. Headline CPI rose 0.5 percent month over month and 4.2 percent year over year, the highest annual reading since April 2023 and up from 3.8 percent in April. Energy did most of the work, rising 3.9 percent on the month and accounting for more than 60 percent of the headline increase. Gasoline jumped 7.0 percent in May and is up 40.5 percent over the year. Core CPI rose a more modest 0.2 percent on the month, with annual core inflation ticking up to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent. Shelter advanced 0.3 percent in May and 3.4 percent annually. Following the release, the CME FedWatch tool showed roughly a 67 percent probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by year end, up from about 14 percent one month earlier.
Core CPI decelerating on the month is genuinely constructive and consistent with the view that the bulk of tariff-related goods pass-through is behind us. However, with the year-over-year core ticking up from 2.8 percent to 2.9 percent, the highest since September 2025, gives some cause for concern, and adds tension to the print. The challenge is that headline 4.2 percent is hard for the Fed to look through when energy is feeding into transportation, food production, and operating costs across the property type spectrum, and when year-ahead inflation expectations remain elevated. Markets have effectively repriced the 2026 rate path from cuts to potential hikes, and the 10-year Treasury sitting near 4.5 percent keeps acquisition spreads thin and cap rate compression off the table for most assets. For owners with floating-rate debt or near-term maturities, the structural shift in expectations matters more than any single print: the case for waiting out a near-term refinance has weakened. Shelter at 3.4 percent annual continues to lag private-market data, which still shows flat to modestly negative effective rent growth in oversupplied markets, suggesting further moderation in the shelter component over coming months.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May 2026 Producer Price Index on June 11. Final demand prices rose 1.1 percent on the month and 6.5 percent year over year, the largest 12-month gain since November 2022. Final demand goods surged 2.8 percent, the biggest monthly increase since the series began in December 2009, with roughly 80 percent of that move tied to a 10.7 percent jump in final demand energy. Wholesale gasoline rose 23.4 percent on the month. Core PPI excluding food and energy advanced 0.4 percent. Stage 1 intermediate demand rose 3.2 percent, also a series record, and is up 12.3 percent over the year, driven by industrial chemicals, diesel fuel, and freight services.
The pipeline pressure here is real, and the breadth of the May increase across intermediate goods and freight argues against dismissing it as a pure energy story. For CRE, the most direct read-through is on construction input costs, which are now running well above the 2 to 3 percent base case most underwriting models assume. Combined with continued tariff effects on building materials, the math for new development gets harder, particularly for projects that have not yet broken ground. Conversely, owners of existing supply-constrained assets benefit on the margin from a thinning pipeline as marginal projects get pushed out. The signal on freight pricing is worth watching for industrial and logistics tenants, where pass-through capacity differs sharply by tenant size and lease structure. On the rates side, a hot PPI with energy doing the work continues the pattern of supply-driven inflation that the Fed cannot easily address with policy, which is why the long end of the curve has stayed sticky.
The University of Michigan released its preliminary June 2026 Consumer Sentiment Index on June 12. The headline reading rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8 (final), a 9 percent monthly gain that beat the consensus forecast of 46.0. The Expectations Index jumped to 49.3 from 44.1, and the Current Conditions component also improved. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.6 percent from 4.8 percent, and long-run expectations dropped to 3.4 percent from 3.9 percent. Survey director Joanne Hsu attributed the improvement primarily to easing gasoline prices in the early part of the month. Even with the gains, sentiment remains 13 percent below January 2026 levels and 19 percent below a year ago, with respondents continuing to cite high prices as the dominant pressure on personal finances.
The first directional improvement in sentiment since the Iran war began is welcome, but the level remains historically weak and the gain is tied directly to a single variable, gasoline prices, that could reverse quickly. The drop in long-run inflation expectations from 3.9 to 3.4 percent is arguably the more meaningful data point in the release, as it suggests the market is no longer fully pricing in structurally higher inflation as the new normal. It’s important to note that the survey’s long-run inflation expectations series has been volatile and partisan-divergent for two years. But, if that improvement holds in the final June reading, it provides modest relief on the longer end of the curve and on cap rate underwriting. Still, a sub-50 sentiment level points to continued caution in discretionary spending, with the K-shaped pattern intact. Lower-income consumers remain under the most pressure, sustaining headwinds for value-oriented retail and Class B and C multifamily, while higher-income spending on experiential and luxury retail has held up better.
News
News to know
News to know
The office market's unlikely savior is also its biggest long-term threat | Bisnow, June 8, 2026
AI companies have become the office market's most active tenant segment in 2026, accounting for 22.7% of US tech-market office leasing in Q1 per CBRE, and driving nearly 40% of San Francisco's positive net absorption. Nationally, Q1 office leasing reached 120M SF, the strongest quarterly total since 2018, per CoStar. AI startups are signing large leases ahead of their headcounts, moving fast and paying premium rents. But Newmark's 2026 modeling projects flat office-using employment growth through 2030 under moderate AI adoption, meaning the same technology generating near-term demand is forecast to suppress the long-term base of office tenancy.
Q2 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index | CRE Daily, June 8, 2026
The Q2 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index, drawn from 450+ investor responses across multifamily, office, industrial, and retail, found capital access worsened across all CRE sectors, a reversal of Q1 2026's modest improvement. The driver: a hot May CPI print (fastest pace in three years, fueled by Middle East-linked energy costs) and a 10-year Treasury in the 4.45-4.55% range. Markets that had priced in two 2026 Fed rate cuts are now pricing in a potential October hike. Q1 2026 had already shown historically subdued equity activity, with 72% of investors keeping exposure flat and only 38% planning to increase, both record levels in the survey's history.
The CRE Finance Council's mid-year Annual Conference opened in New York on June 8 with roughly 1,200 attendees, and the dominant message across the agenda was that property value gains from here will need to come from net operating income growth rather than cap rate compression. Panelists across day one highlighted office as the primary driver of rising CMBS delinquencies, with refinancing stress concentrated in transactions where sponsor support, asset quality, and execution certainty are now the deciding factors. A and B note splits have re-emerged as a workout tool, though resolutions remain highly deal-specific. On day two, discussion turned to borrower behavior, with origination skewed toward refinancing focused on capital preservation rather than equity extraction, and lenders applying heightened due diligence to multifamily underwriting around rent rolls, concessions, and economic occupancy. Across the conference, panelists emphasized that asset quality, sponsorship, and location now matter more than property type in determining capital access.
JLL's proprietary credit index registered an all-time high in April 2026, with a near-record number of distinct lenders — banks, credit funds, family offices, insurance companies, and government agencies — actively quoting across all CRE capital sources simultaneously. Loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are rising as competition intensifies. Data centers are driving a disproportionate share of activity, with large loan placements fueling overall volume. Industrial and logistics showed the strongest sector-level bid competitiveness; multifamily the weakest, held back by rent-growth suppression from oversupply. The global bid-ask spread has narrowed significantly since the 2023 trough, but equity investors remain hesitant, creating a gap between abundant debt capital and closed transaction volume.
Data center moratoriums and restrictions continue to multiply | Kiplinger, June 10, 2026
Community and legislative pushback against AI-driven data center development is accelerating. Monterey Park, California, became the first U.S. city to enact a permanent data center ban via ballot measure, gaining roughly 88 percent of local voter support on June 2. New York's pending Responsible Data Center Development Act would impose a one-year moratorium on permits for facilities of 20 megawatts or more, while Arizona's bipartisan budget package, advancing this week, includes a three-year pause on tax subsidies for new data centers. More than 25 states are now advancing or have enacted legislation that addresses grid costs, reporting requirements, utility regulation, or tax incentives for the sector. Even in the largest markets, like Virginia and Texas, recent legislation requires large users to bear the full cost of grid interconnection and capacity upgrades, raising the all-in cost of new builds and lengthening underwriting timelines.
Banks originated $455 billion in CRE loans in Q1 2026 alone, an 80% year-over-year increase per the MBA, while private market lending simultaneously surged 133% and overall commercial and multifamily borrowing rose 52%. The author argues banks and private lenders are no longer competing but collaborating: banks provide note-on-note financing, back-leverage facilities, and A notes, while private credit supplies execution flexibility for transitional business plans. Private lenders now account for 34% of construction financing, up from roughly 9% from after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Distressed sales peaked at just 3% of transactions in mid-2025, compared to approximately 20% following the GFC.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Report | Q1 2026 US CRE investment and transactions quarterly
The broad-based improvement that defined CRE debt markets in 2025 gave way to a more divided market in Q1 2026. Analysis by Omar Eltorai and Andrew Pabon indicates that floating and fixed-rate borrowers landed in very different places, and the gap between sectors widened. Our Q1 2026 US Debt Capital Markets Survey captures 1,866 lending quotes from 110 CRE debt professionals. Read the full report - or sign up to participate in our Q2 survey.
Podcast | US CRE pricing hits records as transaction patterns diverge
The US median CRE price for all property types just hit $129 per square foot, an all-time record. But here's what makes Q1 2026 really interesting: underneath the all-property aggregate, the market is diverging sharply. Multifamily buildings are 23% smaller than 2019, but deal sizes are at record highs and older stock is outpricing new. And industrial is gaining real share from multifamily for the first time. We break down the Q1 2026 Investment and Transactions Quarterly report and explain what these divergences tell us about where capital is flowing and how different buyer segments are competing.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Monday, June 15
8:30 AM: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Jun)
Tuesday, June 16
8:30 AM: Retail Sales (May)
8:30 AM: Import Price Index (May)
9:15 AM: Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization (May)
10:00 AM: Business Inventories (Apr)
10:00 AM: NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun)
Wednesday, June 17
8:30 AM: Housing Starts (May)
8:30 AM: Building Permits (May)
2:00 PM: FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Summary of Economic Projections
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Press Conference
Thursday, June 18
8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 13)
8:30 AM: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jun)
10:00 AM: U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (May)
Friday, June 19
Markets closed in observance of Juneteenth
Upcoming Industry Events
June 27 – June 30: BOMA International Conference & Expo (Long Beach, CA)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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