CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
July 27, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of July 27, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US on July 20, showing a 0.2% decline in June to 99.1 (2016=100), partially reversing gains from April and May. Weakness in consumer expectations and a broad drop in building permits drove the decline, more than offsetting positive contributions from the yield spread and other financial components. Over the first half of 2026, the LEI is down just 0.3%, a considerably smaller contraction than the 1.1% decline in the second half of 2025. The Conference Board raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year over year, citing AI-related business investment as a key support despite softening consumer spending.
The LEI's slower rate of deterioration relative to late 2025 is a mild positive for the broader outlook. AI-driven capital spending continues to anchor data center and infrastructure demand, while the drop in building permits reinforces the ongoing pullback in multifamily and nonresidential construction, which should support occupancy and rent stability in existing inventory. Consumer-facing sectors face continued pressure if spending weakens further, and with borrowing costs unlikely to ease meaningfully near term, the burden falls on fundamentals to carry performance across most property types.
S&P Global released its flash PMI survey for July on July 24. The US Composite Output Index rose to 53.6 from 51.9 in June, the highest reading in eight months. The gain was driven entirely by services, where the Business Activity Index climbed to 53.6 from 51.2, supported by FIFA World Cup-related hospitality spend and stronger-than-usual July 4th activity. Manufacturing weakened: the headline Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.8 from 53.9, and the Manufacturing Output Index fell to 53.6 from 56.2, the weakest since March. Supplier delivery times worsened to the greatest extent since August 2022, with lead times deteriorating for 11 consecutive months as Middle East conflict disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping and compounded tariff-related supply issues. Input cost inflation reached a 14-month high, selling price inflation hit its steepest pace since August 2022, and employment rose only marginally after two consecutive monthly declines.
The services-manufacturing split has uneven CRE implications. Near-term hospitality and experiential retail demand benefited from one-time July events, but S&P Global's chief economist flagged downside risks if those tailwinds fade in Q3. Input inflation at a 14-month high and selling prices near a four-year peak add to construction cost pressure across property types, reinforcing the case for project delays and tighter feasibility thresholds. For industrial, weakening manufacturing output and worsening supply chains create a mixed demand picture, with safety-stock and reshoring logistics activity offering some offset to slower new orders and export weakness.
The Census Bureau and HUD released June 2026 new home sales on July 24. Sales came in at a SAAR of 628,000, up 1.6% from May's 618,000 but down 5.6% year over year from 665,000 in June 2025. Both changes carry confidence intervals wide enough to include zero (±14.8% and ±13.2%, respectively), meaning neither is statistically significant. Year-to-date sales are running 5.2% below the same period in 2025. The median sales price fell to $398,300, down 3.3% from May and 2.7% below June 2025, though both declines also carry intervals that include zero. More notable is the average sales price, which dropped to $475,400, down 9.5% from May's $525,200, a statistically significant decline with a ±7.2% confidence interval. Inventory held at 485,000 units representing 9.3 months of supply, above the 9.0 months recorded a year ago. The share of homes priced below $300,000 rose to 23% in June from 18% in May, and median time on market since completion stretched to 3.6 months, up from 2.6 months in June 2025.
Builders are leaning harder on price to sustain volume, with the statistically significant drop in average prices and the growing share of sub-$300K sales reflecting active concession strategies. That incentive-driven competition is most relevant for Class B apartments and BTR communities targeting cost-sensitive households, where builder discounts on entry-level product can pull demand directly from the rental pool. The lengthening time on market for completed inventory and above-average months of supply suggest builders are struggling to clear product even with discounts, which should continue to weigh on new starts and support a thinner forward pipeline.
News
News to know
News to know
Miami Is losing Its claim to a cheaper cost of living than NYC | Bloomberg, July 20, 2026
For the first time on record, the Miami metro is more expensive than greater New York City, according to the BEA's latest annual price-comparison report using 2024 data. Miami's CPI has risen 36% since 2019, the second-highest increase among BLS-tracked metros, while home prices are up 79% per S&P Case-Shiller, property taxes have jumped 62%, and the average home insurance premium hit $8,292 last year, roughly four times New York State's rate. Total housing costs in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach metro now run about 5% above the New York metro. The tax arbitrage that drove the New York-to-Miami migration wave is narrowing, with higher insurance, property taxes, private school tuition, and living costs increasingly offsetting Florida's income tax advantage, particularly for upper-middle-income earners.
Twenty-six tax-related ballot initiatives across 13 states will go before voters in November's midterm elections, with property tax relief measures in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wyoming drawing the most attention. Florida's Amendment 3, which would raise the homestead tax exemption threshold from $150,000 to $250,000, carries the largest fiscal impact, with projections showing roughly $46 billion in local government revenue losses by 2032. Municipal leaders warn of significant budget shortfalls and service cuts, while proponents argue rising property taxes have become unmanageable for homeowners. A University of North Florida poll found support for Amendment 3 dropped from 61% to 45% once respondents were informed of projected budget impacts, reflecting the tension between tax relief and fiscal consequences that will define the ballot battles this fall.
New York City's office-to-residential conversion incentive, 467-m, is outpacing the new construction tax break 485-x by a wide margin, according to analysis by Nate Bliss of Latent Urban Ventures. The 70 conversion projects filed or in active review under 467-m are projected to produce up to 20,876 apartments, averaging 298 units per project, compared to 301 485-x registrations yielding just 11,869 intended units at an average of 39.4 per project. The disparity is largely attributed to 485-x's $40-per-hour construction wage requirement for buildings with 100 or more units, which has pushed developers to cluster at the 99-unit threshold, with 30 registrations at exactly that count and only three projects exceeding it. Geographically, 84% of 467-m conversions are concentrated in Manhattan's prime commercial core, while 96% of 485-x projects are in Brooklyn, Queens, or the Bronx.
NYC landlords sue city over Mamdani-backed rent freeze | Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2026
A group of five small landlords filed suit in New York state court seeking to overturn the rent freeze approved in June by the New York City Rent Guidelines Board, which voted 7-1 to impose zero rent increases on one- and two-year leases beginning October 1, covering roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments. The lawsuit alleges Mayor Zohran Mamdani stacked the board with loyalists who manipulated landlord expense and income data to reach a predetermined outcome, with plaintiffs arguing the process was procedurally improper rather than challenging the board's authority to consider affordability, the basis on which a similar challenge to a 2016 freeze failed. The freeze hits a segment of the market already under pressure from rising insurance and utility costs, high interest rates, and tighter rent regulations enacted in 2019, with prior board-approved increases of roughly 3 percent annually running below cost growth. Manhattan median asking rents reached $5,295 per month in June, while metro-area rent inflation hit 4.7 percent in 2024 against median renter income growth of just 1.8 percent, per census data.
Proposed EB-5 rule clamping down on bridge financing rattles sector | Bisnow, July 22, 2026
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services published proposed EB-5 program rule changes on July 2, with a 60-day public comment period, and the most consequential shift targets bridge financing, currently the dominant structure for EB-5 capital deployment. Stricter job creation standards under the proposal could disqualify a large share of offerings in the pipeline, since early-stage bridge capital used for permitting and design generates fewer jobs than construction-phase spending. Additional changes would require all investor capital to be fully deployed before the visa application begins and compress acceptable redevelopment timelines from roughly one year to three months. Investors have contributed just under $60 billion to the program since 1990, with more than 27,000 visas issued over the past two years. Industry attorneys have flagged multiple concerns, though some note this is the first time the agency has solicited public comment before finalizing rules, leaving room for revision.
Older industrial campuses gain new relevance | Commercial Property Executive, July 23, 2026
Value-add and opportunistic investors are increasingly targeting older industrial campuses at discounts to replacement cost, as elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and limited infill land make new development hard to underwrite. Industrial absorption reached 113.6 million square feet in the first half of 2026, its strongest pace since 2023, and vacancy fell to 6.9 percent as deliveries stayed modest, per Cushman & Wakefield. The target assets are functional, less-specialized properties in supply-constrained infill and Sun Belt locations, repositioned for manufacturers, contractors, and small- to mid-size distributors that prioritize proximity to workforce and customers over modern logistics specifications. Existing heavy power infrastructure is an added differentiator. Institutional capital has largely stayed on the sideline, but Cushman & Wakefield expects more direct participation as deal volume and performance data grow.
World Cup hotel performance falls short of projections | Bisnow, July 23, 2026
The 2026 FIFA World Cup drew a record 6.8 million fans across North America but delivered uneven results for U.S. hotel operators. RevPAR climbed more than 40% and average daily rates jumped nearly 35% on Round of 16 and quarterfinal match days, per CoStar, but nonmatch days saw occupancy fall nearly 4% as convention and business travelers largely avoided host markets. Business travel demand in luxury and upper-upscale hotels dropped 54% year-over-year in Seattle and Atlanta combined. Miami and Kansas City led host markets with RevPAR gains of 38% and 35%, respectively, while Atlanta and Seattle were the only host cities to post negative RevPAR in the week ending July 11. The Hotel Association of New York City had projected $300 million in incremental revenue but tracked below that figure until late-tournament demand around the final. Short-term rental rates rose 60% year-over-year around high-profile matches and 43% around the final in Jersey City, per AirDNA. The broad takeaway: fans stayed one to two nights rather than the three to four nights operators projected, and soccer demand substituted for rather than supplemented traditional hospitality segments.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Credit conditions, consumer stress, and office finding a bottom
A couple of the largest US banks are releasing loss reserves on office loans. That’s not something we’ve been able to say for a while, and it’s one of several datapoints suggesting the CRE credit picture is improving.
In the latest CRE Exchange, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry work through a packed week of data:
The June CPI headline was the biggest monthly drop since the pandemic, though most of it was energy and not broad-based disinflation
Consumer credit data show a pullback for the first time since 2024
The Fed meeting minutes revealed credit conditions splitting between large and small borrowers, with smaller sponsors facing a notably tighter environment
The WSJ economist survey shows inflation expectations rising even as recession odds fall
And early Q2 bank earnings point to office stress easing at some of the largest CRE bank lenders, even as data center financing draws more scrutiny
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Monday, July 27
8:30 AM: Durable Goods (Jun)
Tuesday, July 28
8:30 AM: Advance Economic Indicators Report (Jun)
8:30 AM: Wholesale Inventories (Jun)
8:30 AM: Retail Inventories (Jun)
9:00 AM: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (May)
10:00 AM: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Thursday, July 30
8:30 AM: GDP - Advance Estimate (2Q)
8:30 AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Jul. 25)
8:30 AM: Personal Income (Jun)
8:30 AM: Consumer Spending (Jun)
8:30 AM: PCE Price Index (Jun)
Friday, July 31
8:30 AM: Employment Cost Index (2Q)
9:45 AM: Chicago PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final (Jul)
Upcoming Industry Events
July 15: IMN Distressed CRE West Forum (Dana Point, CA)
July 27 – July 30: NCREIF Academy Week at SMU (Dallas, TX)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
Resources
Latest insights
