CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
November 9, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of November 9, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management reported on November 2 that its Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, the 10th straight month of expansion. Production jumped 2.3 points to 59.0, the highest since November 2021, while the Prices Index eased to 75.2 but has signaled rising input costs for 25 straight months. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.9 from a 52-month high of 55.9, though it showed the fastest output price inflation since September 2022 and the strongest payroll growth in about five and a half years. The gap likely reflects different panels, with ISM weighted toward larger, globally exposed manufacturers and S&P including more mid-sized, domestically focused producers.
Both readings are well above 50, so the level signal is consistent: firmer demand for light industrial and advanced manufacturing space, with AI and data center equipment a clear order driver. Rising output and hiring support leasing and owner-user demand for infill industrial space. Both indexes measure the breadth of activity rather than volume, so they say more about direction than magnitude.
The cost side matters more for development. Steel, aluminum, copper, and electrical components are up in price, electronic components remain in short supply, and S&P’s supplier delivery times were the longest since August 2022. That will pressure budgets and timelines for industrial, data center, and other metals-intensive projects.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, ADP Employment, and October Employment Report
The JOLTS report for September, released November 3, showed job openings little changed at 7.5 million (4.5% rate), with quits up to 3.4 million and layoffs and discharges steady at 1.6 million. Professional and business services openings rose 106,000 while hires in the sector fell 30,000.
The ADP National Employment Report for October, released November 4, showed private employers added 86,000 jobs, led by trade, transportation, and utilities (39,000). Professional and business services lost jobs for the third straight month. Job-changer pay growth was the fastest since March 2024.
The BLS Employment Situation for October, released November 6, showed nonfarm payrolls up 165,000, against a prior 12-month average of 48,000, with the unemployment rate little changed at 4.1%. Professional and business services added 70,000, health care 42,000, and transportation and warehousing 25,000, while leisure and hospitality fell 13,000. Involuntary part-time work rose 339,000 to 4.8 million. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year over year, in nominal terms.
For office, the signals conflict: ADP shows professional and business services losing jobs while BLS shows a gain. Within the BLS gain, professional, scientific, and technical services (+33,000) matters most for office demand, while administrative and support gains lean on temp help. Health care (+42,000) supports medical office and senior housing, and transportation and warehousing gains favor logistics space.
Solid October hiring in both ADP and BLS supports consumer spending. However, 3.1% nominal wage growth is roughly flat after inflation, so that support comes more from job gains than pay. A labor market that is not weakening makes meaningful near-term declines in borrowing costs less likely. The leisure and hospitality decline and the rise in involuntary part-time work are the soft spots.
The Census Bureau released September construction spending on November 2, showing a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.186 trillion, down 1.9% from August and 2.7% below September 2025. Both changes are statistically significant. Figures are nominal and include renovations and improvements. Private spending fell 2.4% on the month to $1.639 trillion, driven by a 5.5% drop in residential to $849 billion. Private nonresidential rose 1.1% to $791 billion, up 2.3% year over year. Public spending was flat at $547 billion.
Within private nonresidential, data centers stand apart at $96.5 billion, up 8.6% on the month and 90.3% year over year. Excluding data centers, private nonresidential spending was essentially flat on the month and down roughly 4% year over year (our calculation. Warehouse fell 1.9% on the month and 8.0% on the year, commercial (inclusive of retail) fell 4.4% year over year, and manufacturing fell 17.9% as CHIPS- and IRA-era projects complete. Power is the other bright spot, up 12.1% on the year.
In real terms, declines in the weaker categories are larger. Office, warehouse, and retail pipelines are shrinking, and the higher metals and component costs in this week’s PMI data are leading signals of higher development budgets. As a result, near-term new supply is unlikely to pressure fundamentals for existing assets in those sectors.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released preliminary Q3 2026 data on November 5. Nonfarm business labor productivity rose 3.6% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, as output grew 3.7% and hours worked rose 0.1%. Productivity was up 2.1% year over year. Unit labor costs fell 0.7% on the quarter but remain up 2.4% year over year. Hourly compensation, a broader measure than average hourly earnings that includes benefits, rose 2.9% on the quarter and 4.5% year over year. The labor share of output fell to 53.0%, the lowest since the series began in 1947. Manufacturing productivity rose 0.3%, while manufacturing unit labor costs rose 2.7% on the quarter and 4.0% year over year. Q2 productivity was revised up to 2.1% from 1.4%, and preliminary estimates are subject to large revisions.
Output growth on nearly flat hours is consistent with AI adoption contributing to productivity. One preliminary quarter is not enough to attribute the gain, though, and October payrolls point to firmer hiring since.
For office, headcount matters more than productivity. If firms meet demand through efficiency gains rather than hiring, incremental space demand slows. That would likely show up first in slower expansion of entry-level and support roles rather than shrinking footprints, favoring prime assets and widening the gap with secondary space. The record-low labor share suggests gains are going to margins rather than wages. That supports tenant credit quality but limits the household income growth behind retail and multifamily demand.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan released the preliminary November Consumer Sentiment Index on November 6. The headline index rose to 51.0 from 48.0 in October (+6.3%) and was unchanged from November 2025. Current conditions increased to 51.0 from 46.7, and expectations rose to 50.9 from 48.8. Gains were concentrated among independents and lower- and middle-wealth consumers, while sentiment fell 5% for those with the largest stock portfolios. About 57% of respondents cited high prices as eroding their living standards, the highest share since May. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.3% from 4.7%, while long-run expectations slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, versus a 2.8% to 3.2% range in 2024. Sentiment remains about 10% below its February level.
Sentiment remains depressed, which may continue to weigh on consumer-facing property types, particularly value-oriented retail and properties serving lower-income renters. The 5% decline among households with the largest stock holdings is a risk for luxury retail and high-end hospitality, where affluent spending has been the main support.
Long-run inflation expectations at 3.4%, above the 2024 range, if borne out in next week’s CPI reading, may add to upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and cap rates. These are preliminary survey results, not spending data; the final reading is due November 20.
News
News to know
Miami’s Design District, a roughly 30-acre luxury retail corridor, qualifies as a distressed Opportunity Zone because census data groups it with adjacent lower-income neighborhoods, and it is again eligible for selection when the program’s second phase begins next year. The zone map relies on census income data up to six years old. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested since designation and land values have risen sharply, potentially generating large untaxed gains for owners of qualifying properties. Critics say the program subsidizes investment that would have happened anyway, with little reaching lower-income residents and no public reporting requirements to trace the benefits. The district’s main developers say they are not pursuing the tax benefits on their core retail parcels, which were acquired before the 2017 law, though several projects in the pipeline, including a hotel and a 20-story office and retail tower, could qualify.
CMBS Distress Shifts Away From New York (Commercial Observer, 2026-11-02)
The national CMBS distress rate edged up to 11.2 percent in October from 10.9 percent a year earlier, according to CRED iQ. Newly delinquent or specially serviced conduit and SASB loans totaled $4.5 billion for the month, with 93 percent past maturity or within six months of it. Office was $1.5 billion of that, followed by hotels at $1.1 billion, retail at $700 million and industrial at $500 million. Office distress stands at 16.4 percent nationally and makes up 44 percent of the distressed balance. New York’s rate fell to 11.2 percent from 12.5 percent, while Los Angeles rose to 14.6 percent from 9.4 percent, Chicago to 23.5 percent from 19.5 percent, and Houston to 15.3 percent from 12.4 percent. Well-leased assets are also hitting maturity problems, including a $205 million Philadelphia office loan on a 99.5 percent occupied building and a $325 million Fresno mall loan on a 97.6 percent occupied property.
Real Estate Gains Ground in a Shrinking Fundraising Market (GlobeSt, 2026-11-02)
Real estate fundraising rose 18% through September to $21.9 billion, and together with infrastructure ($22.8 billion, up 67%) totaled $44.7 billion, ahead of credit’s $42.5 billion, according to Robert A. Stanger & Company. A year earlier, credit drew roughly 2.7 times as much capital as the two combined. In the third quarter, real estate and infrastructure raised $16.3 billion, up 54% year over year, while credit fell 61% to $11.1 billion. Total alternative fundraising declined to $134.4 billion from $156.4 billion, driven by a 48% drop in credit and a 62% decline in business development company fundraising to $18.8 billion. Private placement vehicles now account for 52% of total fundraising, up from 40% a year earlier, while public programs fell 30% to $64.9 billion.
Last Year’s Hottest Rent Markets Are Now Posting Declines (GlobeSt, 2026-11-04)
Four states with double-digit rent gains in 2025 have turned negative in 2026 year-to-date, according to Rentec Direct’s State of Rent 2026 report. Montana fell 12% after rising 11%, New Jersey fell 9% after a 16% increase, New York fell 8% after a 15% gain, and California fell 3% after a 14% jump. Hawaii posted the largest gain at 28%, followed by Idaho at 14%, North Dakota at 10% and New Mexico at 9%. Nationally, average monthly rent paid reached $1,388, up about 1% from $1,368 in 2025 and down from 5% growth the prior year, though still almost 40% above the 2019 average of $993. The analysis tracks rent actually paid under existing leases rather than asking rents on vacant units, so rent control, discounts and negotiated prices can open a gap between the two.
Democrats Win Congress As America’s Data Center Backlash Hits The Ballot Box (Bisnow, 2026-11-04)
Democrats are projected to control both chambers of Congress, with S&P 500 futures down about 1% and Nasdaq-100 futures down about 2% on expectations of tighter data center and AI regulation. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.9% overnight before closing near 4.95%. Democratic governors-elect in Georgia and Texas both called for pausing data center development, and Illinois voters rejected data centers in six nonbinding referendums, with support for restrictions ranging from 74% to 88%. Florida voters approved a homestead property tax cut (62% in favor) that raises the exemption to $250,000 and could shift more of the burden onto rental properties. New York City passed all five charter proposals, including a centralized permitting hub consolidating 40 approvals across 18 agencies. California’s $11.3 billion housing bond leads with 59% of ballots counted, and San Francisco’s Proposition J, which ends the transfer tax exemption on foreclosed large commercial properties, passed with 80%.
Foreign Capital Wants Stable Rules, and the Midterm Elections May Deliver Them (GlobeSt, 2026-11-05)
Foreign investors have held back from U.S. commercial real estate over the past year because of tariffs, wars, persistent rates, and shifting rules, though interest in the U.S. growth story remains. The midterm elections, which gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress, could reduce policy swings that have kept overseas capital on the sidelines. European institutions have largely paused but are not selling, while European family offices and Asian capital, led by Japan, are buying more. Rates have risen roughly 100 basis points this year rather than falling, which AFIRE expects to push owners to accept distressed sales and lift transaction volume. Data centers, a top foreign target, face a bipartisan backlash, with Texas, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and New York pausing or reconsidering development, and foreign buyers are expected to pause new deals until the policy picture clarifies.
Treasury Releases New Nationwide Opportunity Zone Map With 6,600 Tracts (Bisnow, 2026-11-05)
The Treasury Department designated 6,567 census tracts as qualified opportunity zones under the second iteration of the program, effective January 1 and running through December 31, 2036. States could nominate no more than 25% of the 25,332 eligible tracts, and the new map is well below the 8,764 zones in the original program. Of the designated tracts, 2,594 are rural. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act made the program permanent, tightened the income threshold to 70% of area median income from 80%, and increased benefits for rural investment. The first iteration drew more than $110 billion in investment. State selections point to a shift away from urban cores: Philadelphia lost eligible areas, while Georgia nominated 235 tracts and Texas designated 608. Proposed legislation would bar data centers from qualifying for the tax breaks.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Construction lending bounces back, spreads widen, borrowers hit pause
Cole and Omar interview Andrew Pabon, Altus Group’s Director of Debt Advisory, to break down the Q3 2026 US debt capital markets survey results. With Treasury yields spiking above 5% and the Fed signaling “even higher for even longer,” they explore what’s changed in CRE lending and borrowing.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EDT)
Monday, November 9
10:00AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade (Sep)
Tuesday, November 10
6:00AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Oct)
8:30AM: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Oct)
11:00AM: NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report (Q3)
Thursday, November 12
8:30AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Nov 7)
10:00AM: Existing Home Sales (Oct)
2:00PM: Monthly Treasury Balance (Oct)
Friday, November 13
8:30AM: Producer Price Index (PPI) (Oct)
Upcoming Industry Events
November 16 - 19: NAREIT REITworld Annual Conference (Atlanta, GA)
December 9 - 10: ICSC New York 2026 (New York, NY)
FEAtured EVENT
April 26-28, 2027 • New York City
Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel
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About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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