CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
November 10, 2025 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of November 10, 2025
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing released the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for October on November 3. The index came in at 48.7%, down from 49.1% in September and marking another month of contraction in factory activity. By contrast, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, released the same day, registered 52.5, slightly higher than September’s 52.0 and indicating modest expansion. The two gauges often differ because they draw from different survey panels: ISM’s survey focuses on purchasing executives from large, globally exposed manufacturers, while S&P Global’s covers a broader mix of firms by size and industry, offering a more domestically oriented snapshot of production trends.
The ISM’s sub-50 reading points to continued weakness among larger, export-heavy manufacturers, suggesting slower demand for warehouse and production space tied to global supply chains. The S&P Global measure, however, reflects resilience among smaller, domestically focused firms, signaling some ongoing support for industrial and logistics assets. Together, the results suggest a mixed but stable outlook for the economy. Manufacturing remains a soft spot, which could weigh on overall growth, but steady activity among smaller firms and service-related industries indicates the broader expansion is still intact. For CRE, this environment may favor a gradual recovery in industrial markets tied to domestic trade.
ADP National Employment Report
ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab released the National Employment Report for October on November 5, showing that the private sector added 42,000 jobs, rebounding from a loss of 29,000 in September. Job gains were concentrated in sectors such as healthcare, education, and trade/transportation/ utilities, while sectors such as professional & business services, information, and leisure & hospitality posted declines for the third consecutive month.
With the government shutdown blocking the usual release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ADP data carry extra weight as one of the few timely indicators of labor market momentum. The modest gain of 42,000 jobs points to a labor market that remains uneven, with growth in noncyclical sectors but weakness in professional services and leisure. While this suggests that demand drivers for commercial real estate may be softening, the slowdown also strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will move forward with a rate cut at its December meeting. Easing financial conditions could help offset weaker job growth, supporting refinancing activity and improving liquidity across capital markets even as fundamentals in select property sectors remain fragile.
The University of Michigan released the preliminary readout of the Consumer Sentiment Index for November on November 7. The headline reading came in at 50.3, down from October’s 53.6 to the lowest since mid-2022 and near its all-time recorded low. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7% while five-year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.6%.
The drop reflects growing unease about the economic outlook as the government shutdown drags on, weighing on household confidence and financial stability. For the broader economy and commercial real estate, weaker sentiment points to greater consumer caution that could slow spending and leasing in the months ahead. The shutdown is compounding these concerns by disrupting pay for federal workers and delaying benefits, which may further restrain discretionary spending. Retail and hospitality properties could see softer demand, while investors and lenders are likely to focus on defensive sectors such as industrial and multifamily.
News
News to know
CRE leaders warn of stalled deals, unpaid rents as shutdown drags on | GlobeSt, November 3, 2025
As the federal government shutdown enters its second month, CRE leaders warn that frozen funding and furloughed agencies are stalling permits, SBA processing, FHA approvals, and federal lease actions, putting deals and construction timelines on ice while costs mount. Owners with federal tenants face unpaid rents and no one available to review or sign documents, raising default risk if HUD funds lapse, and landlords cannot simply evict or raise rents to cover shortfalls. Developers report bottlenecks at agencies like the Army Corps and EPA that could push projects over budget depending on how long delays last and who absorbs the added costs. Lenders and investors are asking whether other capital providers will wait out the impasse, and some programs cut in the prior administration that relied on one-time funding may now need fresh approvals, adding more uncertainty. If the standoff persists, expect a widening ripple effect from loan desks to leasing offices, with multifamily and affordable housing especially exposed.
Average CRE interest rate at 6.57%; cap rate at 6.34% | Commercial Observer, November 3, 2025
According to the latest CRED iQ data, the grand total average interest rate across all commercial real estate property types stands at 6.57 percent, while the average cap rate registers at 6.34 percent. This narrow spread of just 23 basis points underscores a compressed yield environment, where borrowing costs remain elevated relative to capitalization rates. The overall figures reflect a market still adjusting to higher-for-longer interest rates, with debt service coverage potentially strained in sectors where cap rates fail to outpace financing expenses significantly.
Newer kids on the block | Commercial Observer, November 4, 2025
2025 emerged as a year credit markets finally came roaring back to life after a painful and dysfunctional hiatus following the 2023 regional banking crisis and a persistently high interest rate regime that characterized the first half of the decade. But a new landscape had formed in the multiyear pullback of traditional bank lending, as private credit and debt funds established themselves as a $1.7 trillion market for CRE borrowers to tap into. Traditional lenders like commercial banks remain constrained by either regulatory pressure or risky balance sheet exposure that restricts their ability to lend at high leverage levels demanded by borrowers, allowing private credit to step into the void of dislocation. Beyond even core products like bridge, acquisition, and construction loans, private credit is financing note-on-note purchases and the purchasing of existing loans from banks.
Sonida Senior Living announced plans to acquire CNL Healthcare Properties for $1.8 billion in cash and stock, forming one of the largest U.S. senior housing platforms with over 14,000 units across 153 communities. The merger, expected to close in the first half of 2026, marks the biggest senior-housing deal since 2021 and underscores renewed investor appetite for the sector after years of pandemic-driven distress. Rising occupancy, slower construction starts, and rent growth of 4–8 percent annually are fueling optimism as aging demographics boost demand. The acquisition continues Sonida’s turnaround under Conversant Capital, which recapitalized the company in 2021 and will hold about 30 percent of the combined firm. The transaction reflects growing confidence that senior housing has entered a new expansion cycle as supply tightens and baby boomers reach their 80s.
Emerging trends report finds silver linings | Commercial Property Executive, November 5, 2025
PwC and ULI’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026 report highlights cautious optimism as U.S. markets stabilize. Office construction has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis, but demand is improving in key cities like New York and San Francisco, with tenants favoring high-quality assets. Data centers remain the top investment target, driven by AI and cloud growth despite power constraints. Dallas–Fort Worth tops the list of markets to watch, followed by Miami, Houston, Nashville, Tampa, Phoenix, and parts of metro New York.
Lease terms are lengthening across the U.S. single-family rental market as both tenants and investors prioritize stability over turnover. According to RealPage, the typical new apartment lease hit a record 12.8 months in 2025, while Cotality data show national single-family rent growth holding near 1.4 percent, just below its long-run average. With homeownership increasingly out of reach and only one in three renters expecting to ever buy, households are opting for longer commitments, while landlords benefit from lower turnover costs and steadier cash flows. The sector’s move toward longer-term leases, improved service models, and value-driven amenities is reshaping competitiveness and enhancing investment appeal. For commercial real estate, this trend reflects a more institutionalized single-family rental landscape where consistent occupancy and operational efficiency matter as much as rent growth, offering investors a stable income profile even as housing affordability remains strained.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Never bet against New York City: Bob Knakal talks markets, policy, and opportunity
Legendary New York broker, Bob Knakal, shares lessons from more than four decades shaping the city’s investment landscape. He discusses the founding of Massey Knakal, the power of specialization, and how zoning and policy continue to define opportunity. Knakal also explains why he’s integrating AI and data analysis into his brokerage, and why, despite political headwinds, he still believes you should never bet against New York.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, November 11
6:00AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Data Release
Wednesday, November 12
10:00AM: JLL Income Property Trust, Inc., Earnings Call
Thursday, November 13
10:00AM: Sotherly Hotels Inc. [NASDAQCM:SOHO], Earnings Call
10:30AM: GO Residential Real Estate Trust [TSX:GP.U], Earnings Call
11:00AM: FrontView REIT, Inc. [NYSE:FVR], Earnings Call
Friday, November 14
4:30PM: Modiv Industrial, Inc. [NYSE:MDV], Earnings Call
Upcoming industry events
December 8 – December 11: NAREIT REITworld Annual Conference
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Research Director
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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