CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
July 13, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of July 13, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
S&P Global US Services PMI and US Sector PMI (June 2026)
S&P Global released the final US Services PMI for June on July 6. The headline Business Activity Index rose to 51.2 from 50.7 in May, the strongest reading since February and the third consecutive month of expansion. New orders grew at the fastest pace since February, supported by new project wins and FIFA World Cup-related demand, though export business declined for the seventh straight month. Employment fell for the third time in four months, and input costs remained sharply elevated despite easing slightly from May. The Composite PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.5, consistent with roughly 1.2% annualized GDP growth in Q2. The Sector PMI showed all seven tracked sectors expanding in June for the first time since November 2025. Basic Materials led at 57.0, the fastest output growth in over four years, while Consumer Services was the weakest at 50.6. Technology and Financials returned to modest growth after contracting in May.
The services data point to an economy growing, but only modestly. Output consistent with 1.2% annualized GDP growth does little to accelerate occupier demand, and seven straight months of declining export business weigh on professional and business services firms that drive office absorption. Employment losses in services for the third time in four months reinforce that dynamic. Elevated input costs remain a margin pressure for retail tenants, even as some consumer-facing firms expect price relief ahead. The return to growth in financials and technology is a mild positive for office markets concentrated in those sectors, but neither is expanding at a pace that shifts the leasing outlook materially. Higher interest rate expectations cited in the survey continue to weigh on CRE transaction activity and debt-dependent property types.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June 16-17 FOMC meeting on July 8. The Committee voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% and removed post-meeting language that had previously signaled an easing bias. Total PCE inflation stood at 3.8% in April and was estimated to have climbed to 4.1% in May, lifted by higher energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict and AI-driven demand; core PCE was estimated at 3.4% in May. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, payroll growth was solid over the prior three months, and real GDP continued expanding at a pace roughly in line with potential, led by AI-related business investment. On the policy path, participants were divided: many saw the current rate as appropriate or slightly below the right year-end level, while many others said rates should move higher if inflation stays elevated, with several noting the current stance is not restrictive.
The removal of easing-bias language is a material policy shift that narrows the realistic scenario set for CRE borrowers. The 10-year Treasury yield rose roughly 20 basis points over the intermeeting period and about 50 basis points since the onset of the Middle East conflict, sustaining pressure on underwriting spreads and cap rates. For floating-rate borrowers and loans approaching maturity, the window for refinancing at lower cost has effectively closed for the near term. Transaction volume is unlikely to recover meaningfully until the rate outlook stabilizes, and with the Committee actively debating whether additional hikes are warranted, bid-ask gaps across most property types will be difficult to bridge.
The Federal Reserve released the G.19 Consumer Credit report for May 2026 on July 8. Total consumer credit was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, missing expectations and effectively marking the first net repayment since 2024. Revolving credit contracted at an annualized rate of 4.7 percent, reversing the sharp growth posted in March and April. Nonrevolving credit increased at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent. Total consumer credit outstanding stands at approximately $5.155 trillion. The average APR on credit card accounts assessed interest held at 22.15 percent, and 60-month new car loan rates at commercial banks are running at 7.14 percent.
The pullback in revolving credit after two of the strongest months of growth in years suggests households are prioritizing debt paydown over new borrowing at elevated rates. For consumer-facing CRE, softer credit card usage points to reduced discretionary spending capacity, a cautionary signal for retail tenants in apparel, dining, and experiential categories. The aggregate data do not show how spending is distributed across income groups, but with core PCE still running well above target and borrowing costs elevated, lower-income households are likely bearing a disproportionate share of the pressure, which would favor value-oriented and necessity-based retail over discretionary formats. A credit contraction that persists adds to the case for eventual Fed easing, but near-term refinancing conditions remain tight.
The National Association of Realtors reported on July 9 that existing-home sales fell 2.4% in June 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units. Month-over-month, sales rose in the Northeast but declined in the Midwest, South, and West. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up in the Midwest, South, and West, and flat in the Northeast. The median existing-home price reached an all-time high of $440,600, while inventory stood at 4.6 months of supply.
The record median price and still-tight inventory signal that affordability remains a structural constraint even as wage growth continues to outpace home price appreciation. At 4.6 months of supply, inventory has not improved enough to meaningfully loosen conditions, and stalled inventory growth raises the risk of renewed price acceleration. For multifamily, the ongoing affordability squeeze keeps would-be buyers in the rental pool, supporting occupancy. For CRE capital markets, the rate sensitivity on display here – NAR specifically cited mild mortgage rate fluctuations as a driver of the monthly swing – reinforces how attuned transaction activity is to borrowing costs, a dynamic that applies equally to commercial debt markets.
News
News to know
News to know
Vacant public school buildings are emerging as a growing conversion target, with nearly 2,000 apartments created from former schools in 2024, up four times year over year, and 9,320 units in the pipeline at the start of 2026, per RentCafe. Declining enrollment is accelerating closures across major districts, freeing up centrally located buildings with classroom layouts that translate more efficiently to residential units than typical office floorplates. Conversions rely heavily on historic tax credits and public subsidies to pencil, and rehabilitation costs -- including mechanical replacement, asbestos removal, and structural repair -- remain a significant hurdle.
Low birth rate, immigration cuts raise long-term risk of U.S. housing glut | Bloomberg, July 8, 2026
A new MBA white paper warns that the structural forces driving U.S. housing demand are weakening. The country's fertility rate is at a record low, net international migration was cut roughly in half in 2025, and the CBO projects deaths will outnumber births by 2030. Household formation fell to 1.1 million in 2025 from 2 million in 2021, per Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. The MBA projects home price growth of just 1% in 2026 and flat prices over the following two years. Oversupply is already evident in Sun Belt markets, where multifamily completions hit a 38-year high in 2024 and the national rental vacancy rate rose to 7.3%. A severe shortage of affordable units for lower- and middle-income households remains.
Damaged Midtown conversion tower to have 15 floors reconstructed | Bloomberg, July 8, 2026
A structural failure at one of the largest office-to-residential conversions underway in the U.S. has drawn attention to the engineering risks of adaptive reuse projects. Metro Loft's conversion of the former Pfizer headquarters at 235 East 42nd St. in Midtown Manhattan was evacuated Tuesday after insufficient column reinforcement on an oversized floor caused 15 cantilevered floors above to sag. The developer plans to replace the facade, slabs, and steel on the affected floors, which represent roughly 18,000 square feet of the 1.3 million-square-foot project and fewer than 30 of the planned 1,600-plus apartments. The city issued a partial stop-work order, and structural engineers cautioned that a thorough assessment and repair could take several months. Metro Loft says construction was running ahead of schedule and does not expect the setback to affect the project's opening timeline or its existing debt. Mayor Mamdani, who has backed office conversions as part of New York's housing strategy, said the city will investigate but maintained his support for the conversion model.
Industrial's fire problem: Warehouses are bigger, colder, harder to save | Bisnow, July 9, 2026
Back-to-back fires at large cold storage facilities in Los Angeles and Chicago have renewed scrutiny of fire risk in modern industrial real estate. A 500,000 SF cold storage warehouse in Boyle Heights burned for more than a week beginning June 17, releasing toxic chemicals and triggering emergency declarations, followed shortly by a blaze at a similar Chicago facility. The incidents reflect a broader trend: warehouse fires have declined in frequency since the 1980s but average roughly $200 million in annual damage, as larger buildings packed with high-density racking, robotic equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and flammable coolants create conditions that can outpace suppression capabilities. The median U.S. warehouse in 2022 was 25% larger than in 2012, and leasing for 500,000 SF-plus facilities jumped 31% year-over-year in 2025, per Cushman and Wakefield. Roughly 5.9 million SF of new cold storage remains in the pipeline, per Newmark, and no significant regulatory proposals have advanced despite the incidents.
Link Logistics estimates that every gigawatt of data center construction generates roughly 2 million square feet of spillover industrial demand, with about 80% tied to long-term operations rather than construction staging. With 100 gigawatts in the national pipeline, the aggregate implication is around 200 million square feet of incremental industrial demand over the next five years. Construction-phase tenants typically sign one-to-three-year leases, while the more durable layer includes cooling and power vendors, server maintenance providers, and 3PLs serving hyperscalers directly. Markets best positioned include Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, and Columbus, alongside emerging hubs like Memphis and Milwaukee where hyperscaler announcements are already driving measurable absorption. With the industrial construction pipeline mostly muted and new supply skewing toward preleased or build-to-suit, data center demand could tighten availability faster than expected in markets where heavy-power, high-clear-height product is already scarce.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Midyear CRE recap: Growth, inflation, and the exit bet
The first half of 2026 opened with a soft-landing story and closed with reignited inflation, sub-2% growth, and a hawkish Fed. In CRE Exchange’s midyear recap, Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through what happened: Four straight Fed holds, confidence at its lowest in 70-plus years, a K-shaped consumer still spending but under pressure, and a frozen housing market. Meanwhile, REITs returned nearly 14% and went on offense while private CRE stayed in recovery mode.
The episode also covers Omar's original research on implied versus realized growth in CRE: When buyers price in growth at acquisition, does that growth actually arrive? And does it protect value?
Insight | What CRE professionals need to know about the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act
The US Congress just passed its most significant federal housing legislation in roughly 30 years, though it's not law yet. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is primarily a supply-side reform, and for commercial real estate, the implications could go well beyond the headlines about big investors.
The benefits:
Empty hotels, vacant malls, and idle warehouses would have a federally supported conversion pathway
Zoning reform guidance could ease mixed-use development economics
Banks would have more room to invest in community development
The risks:
The investor ban could create compliance complexity for CRE platforms with single-family exposure, particularly around how Treasury defines "investment control" across fund structures and joint ventures
RESIDE Act conversion grants would require most units to serve lower-income households, limiting their usefulness for market-rate repositioning
Authorization isn't funding; the real-world impact of programs like RESIDE and the Innovation Fund depends on future appropriations cycles
While these shifts could expand the development pipeline for CRE, the institutional investor ban on single-family acquisitions still has unresolved edges, and the Treasury's rulemaking will determine how far it reaches.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Monday, July 13
2:00 PM: Monthly Treasury Balance
Tuesday, July 14
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Wednesday, July 15
8:30 AM: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index (PPI)
8:30 AM: Personal Consumption
2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, July 16
8:30 AM: Retail Sales
8:30 AM: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM: Weekly Jobless Claims
10:00 AM: Manufacturing & Trade Inventories and Sales
10:00 AM: NAHB Housing Market Index
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales
Friday, July 17
8:30 AM: Housing Starts
8:30 AM: Import Prices
9:15 AM: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
10:00 AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)
Upcoming Industry Events
July 15: IMN Distressed CRE West Forum (Dana Point, CA)
July 27 – July 30: NCREIF Academy Week at SMU (Dallas, TX)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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