CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
May 4, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of May 4, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index
S&P Dow Jones Indices released the February 2026 Case-Shiller results on April 28. The National Home Price Index rose 0.7% year over year, down from 0.8% in January. The 20-City Composite gained 0.9% and the 10-City rose 1.5%. After seasonal adjustment, the National and 10-City were essentially flat month over month at +0.1%, and the 20-City slipped 0.05%. More than half of tracked metros posted year-over-year declines, led by Denver (-2.2%), Tampa (-2.1%), Seattle (-2.0%), Phoenix (-1.8%), and Dallas (-1.7%). Chicago led all markets at +5.0%, followed by New York (+4.7%) and Cleveland (+4.2%). With CPI at 2.4%, home values have lost ground in real terms for nine consecutive months.
The breadth of declines, now extending into the Mountain West and Pacific Northwest alongside Sun Belt markets, confirms that affordability constraints are structural. Mortgage rates near 6% are suppressing transaction volume and keeping nominal price growth below inflation, which is extending renter tenure and supporting multifamily demand in supply-constrained markets. The 7.2 percentage point spread between Chicago and Denver also matters for underwriting: assets in weaker housing markets face a more price-sensitive renter pool and softer household formation trends, while Midwest and Northeast metros with limited new construction give owners more room to hold rents.
The Conference Board released its April 2026 Consumer Confidence Index on April 28. The headline index edged up 0.6 points to 92.8, from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March. The Present Situation Index slipped 0.3 points to 123.8, while the Expectations Index rose 1.2 points to 72.2, remaining well below the 80 threshold that historically signals elevated recession risk. The labor market differential, jobs "plentiful" minus "hard to get," improved 1.4 points to +7.5%. Views on future business conditions deteriorated, with 23.6% expecting conditions to worsen, up from 21.4%. The Conference Board noted rising concerns about gasoline prices and the Middle East conflict, though a temporary ceasefire and equity market rebound within the survey period likely cushioned the headline reading.
The Expectations Index holding below 80 for another month reinforces a cautious consumer backdrop. Planned spending on services continued shifting from "yes" to "no" across most categories, with spending intentions increasingly concentrated in essentials and low-cost options. For CRE, that pattern points to continued pressure on discretionary retail and experiential assets while necessity-based tenants hold up. The further decline in vacation intentions and international travel spending is a headwind for hotel demand, particularly in gateway and resort markets. On the multifamily side, soft income expectations and rising recession concerns may keep renter tenure elevated, supporting occupancy even as rent growth stays muted.
Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Completions
The Census Bureau and HUD released the delayed February and March 2026 residential construction data on April 29. March starts jumped 10.8% to a SAAR of 1.502 million, the strongest pace since December 2024 and above the 1.40 million consensus, with single-family up 9.7% to 1.032 million and multifamily up 9.6% to 446,000. Permits, however, fell 10.8% to 1.372 million, the largest decline since November 2022. The drop was led by multifamily, down 23.5% to 427,000, the sharpest fall since March 2023. Single-family permits slipped 3.8% to 895,000. On a Q1 basis, total starts were up just 1.3% year over year, suggesting March benefited from timing or weather effects.
The starts/permits divergence is the key signal. Strong March activity reflects work on previously approved projects, while the permit pullback points to a thinner pipeline by mid-2026. The multifamily story is most notable. Combined with units under construction at 659,000, the lowest since March 2021, the supply side continues to tighten and should support apartment fundamentals into 2027 and 2028, particularly in oversupplied Sun Belt markets. On the single-family side, weak permits are consistent with depressed builder sentiment, mortgage rates above 6%, and reliance on incentives, keeping would-be buyers in the rental market longer. Rising borrowing costs and material prices tied to the Iran conflict add a further headwind to any near-term rebound.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP on April 30, showing growth of 2.0% annualized, up from 0.5% in Q4 2025. The acceleration reflected upturns in government spending and exports and faster investment growth, partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending. Investment was led by information processing equipment, software, and a rebuild in retail and wholesale inventories, while residential and nonresidential structures both declined. Federal nondefense spending rebounded after the Q4 shutdown drag. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 2.5%, up from 1.8%, a cleaner read on underlying demand.
The pickup in headline growth is constructive, but the composition matters more than the print for CRE. The inventory rebuild supports incremental industrial and logistics demand, continued software and information processing investment underpins data center absorption, and the rebound in federal nondefense spending should stabilize office demand in government-heavy markets. Less constructive is the continued contraction in residential and nonresidential structures, confirming that elevated financing costs and tariff-driven input pressures are still curbing new development. Thinning supply pipelines should continue to support occupancy and rent growth over the next 12 to 18 months, particularly in industrial and multifamily.
Personal Income & Outlays and the PCE Price Index
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March on April 30. Personal income rose 0.6% month over month, with disposable personal income also up 0.6%, though real DPI declined 0.1% as price gains outpaced nominal growth. Current-dollar PCE increased 0.9%, while real PCE rose just 0.2%. The headline PCE price index jumped 0.7% on the month and 3.5% year over year, up from 2.9% in the prior reading. Core PCE rose 0.3% monthly and 3.2% annually. The personal saving rate held at 3.6%.
The reacceleration in inflation is the dominant signal for CRE. With headline PCE at 3.5% and core PCE at 3.2%, both well above the Fed's 2% target, the case for near-term cuts has weakened materially. That keeps short rates elevated, sustains pressure on the 10-year, and limits relief on borrowing costs, refinancing economics, and cap rate compression in 2026. The split between nominal and real spending is also notable: consumers are still transacting, but real PCE growth of just 0.2% combined with a 3.6% saving rate points to a stretched household that could weigh on hospitality, discretionary retail, and consumer-facing tenants if price pressures persist.
News
News to know
News to know
CRE finance execs turn bearish on economy | Commercial Property Executive, April 27, 2026
The CRE Finance Council's Q1 2026 Board of Governors Sentiment Index fell 20.2% to 100.1, down from 125.4 in Q4 2025, nearly erasing three quarters of gains and returning the index to its 2017 baseline. The survey, conducted April 7-13, captured the immediate impact of the Iran war on rate expectations, transaction pace, and the macro outlook. Sixty-one percent of respondents said the conflict would keep borrowing costs elevated by pushing out rate relief, while 54% now expect the U.S. economy to deteriorate over the next 12 months, up from just 14% in Q4 2025. On refinancing risk, 56% flagged office loans as most exposed, particularly secondary and lower-quality assets. Despite the macro pessimism, underlying demand indicators held up: 71% still expect higher borrower demand for financing and 61% expect stronger investor demand for CRE and multifamily assets, suggesting a market repricing risk rather than a freeze in activity.
The overall commercial mortgage delinquency rate rose to 4.02% in Q1 2026, up from 3.86% at year-end 2025, per MBA's quarterly CREF Loan Performance Survey. CMBS remained the most stressed capital source at 5.21% delinquent (30+ days), up from 4.97% last quarter; Trepp's March data put the CMBS rate even higher at 7.55%. GSE-backed loans jumped to 0.97% from 0.63%, and FHA multifamily and health care loans rose to 0.96% from 0.65%. Life company loans were the lone bright spot, dipping slightly to 1.47%. By property type, office, multifamily, lodging, and retail all saw delinquency increases. Industrial was the only sector to improve. MBA noted the Q1 uptick reflects short-term delinquency stress rather than the long-term delinquency trend that dominated 2025, suggesting that last year's wave of refinancings and loan modifications may have temporarily repositioned troubled loans rather than resolved them.
A bill aimed at creating homes is leaving plots empty instead | Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2026
The U.S. Senate passed sweeping housing legislation in March (89-10) that includes a provision requiring build-to-rent (BTR) developers to sell newly constructed rental homes within seven years of completion. Though not yet law, the provision has already frozen at least $3.4 billion in BTR investment across 14 firms surveyed by housing-policy groups Inclusive Abundance and Up for Growth, roughly 10,000 units. TerraLane Communities paused two projects totaling ~300 homes in Arizona and Texas and dropped five additional deals. The provision is part of a broader effort to codify President Trump's executive order restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. The House passed its own housing package in February without such a restriction, and the two chambers must reconcile their bills. On Wednesday, 76 House members, both Republicans and Democrats, signed a letter urging leadership to strip or substantially revise the Senate's seven-year sale clause. BTR developers argue conversion to for-sale product is not feasible: these communities are zoned multifamily, share underground utilities, and are financed and built on an entirely different model than single-family for-sale construction.
Why AI startup offices in NYC are flashy but mostly empty | Wall Street Journal, April 29, 2026
AI startups are fueling a new wave of Manhattan office leasing, with JLL reporting more than 845,000 square feet leased in 2025 and another 414,000 square feet in Q1 2026 alone. Many tenants are taking space roughly 60 percent larger than their current headcount needs, including 10x at 3,000 square feet in SoHo for $28,500 per month, Fazeshift in an 11-desk Park Avenue co-working space at about $7,000 per month, and Blossom at 5,000 square feet in Flatiron for roughly $17,000 per month. Landlords retain pricing power downtown, pushing 7- to 10-year terms and underwriting tenants on balance sheets, capital raises, and revenue projections rather than current footprint. Some early movers have grown into their space, including Adonis, which expanded from 25 to 85 employees in 25,000 square feet at 3 World Trade Center, though concentration in AI-driven demand remains a watch item for landlords and lenders.
Fed holds rates steady under weight of war | Commercial Property Executive, April 29, 2026
The FOMC voted to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a third consecutive meeting, citing rising inflation tied to the ongoing Iran conflict and a mixed labor market led by health care hiring. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen roughly 40 basis points since the war began, keeping borrowing costs elevated and continuing to weigh on development starts, refinancing proceeds, lender sizing, debt yields, DSCR tests, and cap rate assumptions. Industry forecasts are split, with Parkview Financial expecting no further cuts this year absent a sharp labor market deterioration, while BGO still projects one to two cuts on a fuzzier timeline. The decision arrives ahead of a likely leadership transition, with Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair advancing through the Senate Banking Committee and Powell's term expiring May 15. Warsh is expected to pursue closer Treasury coordination on debt management, though analysts note the chair's individual influence on FOMC policy is historically limited.
Two NJ malls separated by just four miles, and very different fates | Bloomberg, April 30, 2026
A Bloomberg report contrasts two northern New Jersey malls roughly four miles apart. The Livingston Mall, opened in 1972, is effectively closed after Macy's shuttered this week and Barnes & Noble announced plans to relocate this summer. Simon Property Group sold its stake to Kohan Retail Investment Group in 2022, and the town is planning a partial redevelopment into apartments and townhomes. Four miles away, the Simon-owned Mall at Short Hills posts the highest sales per square foot of any shopping center in New Jersey, according to Green Street, anchored by tenants like Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Hermès, and Rolex. The split illustrates the ongoing bifurcation in U.S. retail real estate, with Class B and C centers struggling against e-commerce and anchor bankruptcies while Class A centers in affluent trade areas retain pricing power and luxury demand.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | CRE workouts, maturity walls, and the art of restructuring
Omar Eltorai sits down with Shlomo Chopp of CASE Equity Partners for a direct conversation about CRE distress; the causes, the workout process, and what it takes to get to a resolution.
Shlomo has been through this before. With over 20 active workout situations and more than two decades in CRE restructuring and advisory, he offers an expert perspective on the maturity wall, the limits of extend-and-pretend, why DPOs are harder to achieve than many borrowers expect, and what his Road to Default series is trying to teach the market.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, May 5
8:30 AM: U.S. Trade Balance (Mar)
10:00 AM: Job Openings (Mar)
10:00 AM: New Home Sales (Feb & Mar)
10:00 AM: ISM Services (Apr)
Wednesday, May 6
8:15 AM: ADP Employment (Apr)
Thursday, May 7
8:30 AM: U.S. Productivity (Q1)
10:00 AM: Construction Spending (Feb & Mar)
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit (Mar)
Friday, May 8
8:30 AM: U.S. Employment Report (Apr)
10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories (Mar)
10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment, preliminary (May)
Upcoming Industry Events
May 5 – May 7: ULI Spring Meeting (Nashville, TN)
May 17 – May 20: MBA CRE Servicing Solutions Conference (San Diego, CA)
May 18 – May 20: ICSC Las Vegas
May 19 – May 20: Real Estate Research Institute Annual Conference (Chicago, IL)
May 20 – May 21: NAIOP I.CON East (Jersey City, NJ)
May 28 – May 29: AREUEA National Conference (Washington, DC)
Upcoming Earnings Calls (Times in EDT)
Monday, May 4
11:00 AM: RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)
Tuesday, May 5
8:30 AM: AH Realty Trust (AHRT)
8:30 AM: Angel Oak Mortgage REIT (AOMR)
10:00 AM: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
10:00 AM: Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE)
10:00 AM: Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC)
10:00 AM: Centerspace (CSR)
10:00 AM: National Health Investors (NHI)
11:00 AM: Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO)
11:00 AM: MFA Financial (MFA)
12:00 PM: Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR)
6:00 PM: PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)
Wednesday, May 6
8:00 AM: Lineage (LINE)
8:30 AM: Gladstone Commercial (GOOD)
9:00 AM: Postal Realty Trust (PSTL)
10:00 AM: Healthpeak Properties (DOC)
10:00 AM: Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT)
11:00 AM: Granite Point Mortgage Trust (GPMT)
11:00 AM: Ellington Financial (EFC)
2:00 PM: Douglas Emmett (DEI)
5:00 PM: The Macerich Company (MAC)
5:00 PM: Realty Income (O)
Thursday, May 7
8:00 AM: Americold Realty Trust (COLD)
8:30 AM: EPR Properties (EPR)
8:30 AM: Chimera Investment (CIM)
9:00 AM: Chicago Atlantic RE Finance (REFI)
10:00 AM: Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)
10:00 AM: Service Properties Trust (SVC)
10:00 AM: Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)
10:00 AM: Claros Mortgage Trust (CMTG)
10:30 AM: GO Residential REIT (GO.U)
11:00 AM: FrontView REIT (FVR)
11:00 AM: Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT)
11:00 AM: Global Net Lease (GNL)
11:00 AM: LTC Properties (LTC)
12:00 PM: Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)
12:00 PM: SmartStop Self Storage (SMA)
12:00 PM: Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE)
Friday, May 8
10:00 AM: Bimini Capital Management (BMNM)
10:00 AM: Orion Properties (ONL)
10:00 AM: Starwood Property Trust (STWD)
10:00 AM: Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
11:00 AM: NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP)
11:00 AM: CareTrust REIT (CTRE)
12:00 PM: Strawberry Fields REIT (STRW)
1:00 PM: American Healthcare REIT (AHR)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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