CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
November 2, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of November 2, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index
August data (released October 27) showed the National Index up 2.1% year over year (1.9% in July), with the 10-City and 20-City Composites up 3.6% and 2.7% (3.4% and 2.5% prior). Seasonally adjusted, the three rose 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.3% month over month. With CPI at 3.4%, real home prices fell for a 15th straight month. Chicago (+6.7%), New York (+6.2%), and Cleveland (+4.3%) led; Seattle (-2.0%), Las Vegas (-1.3%), and Dallas and Denver (both -0.8%) lagged. Detroit was not published due to recording delays.
Slower price growth hasn’t helped affordability: the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.32% as of October 22 (6.19% a year ago), and the index predates mortgage rates topping 7% in late September. For single-family rental and build-to-rent owners, appreciation is doing little in several Sun Belt and Mountain West markets. Dallas, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Denver are negative year over year, and Atlanta, Charlotte, and Phoenix are up less than 0.6%, so returns hinge on rent and occupancy, not exit value.
September sales (released October 27) ran at a 676,000 annual rate, down 0.6% from a revised 680,000 in August and 5.3% year over year; neither change is statistically significant. Inventory fell 1.0% to 476,000, and months’ supply slipped to 8.4 from 8.5. The median price rose 3.9% month over month to $400,400 but was 3.9% below a year ago. The average price of $472,800 fell 6.7% year over year, the release’s only statistically significant price change.
The price decline reflects mix as much as discounting: homes under $400,000 were 51% of September sales (46% a year earlier), while the $1 million-plus share fell to 4% from 6%. Completed homes for sale fell to 111,000 from 122,000 a year ago. Lower-priced new homes, often with rate buydowns, compete for the same cost-sensitive households as Class B apartments, particularly in the South (about 61% of sales). At 8.4 months of supply, well above the roughly six months of a balanced market, builders have little reason to accelerate starts.
The October index (released October 27) rose 7.5 points to 91.7, its highest since June and well above consensus near 81. The Present Situation Index gained 8.6 points to 120.4, and the Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6, still below the 80 level historically associated with recession risk. The Conference Board tied the rebound to easing gasoline prices. Twelve-month inflation expectations eased but remain elevated at 5.8%. Home and auto purchase plans dipped, planned spending on services and durables fell, and vacation plans slipped to 43.3% from 44.2%, tilting domestic. Only consumers under 35 and households earning $100,000+ showed rising confidence on a six-month average basis.
The rebound looks driven by gas prices rather than fundamentals; confidence remains on a multiyear downtrend and spending intentions weakened. Restaurants, bars, and take-out remain the top services category, favoring food- and service-anchored retail. Softer travel plans with a domestic tilt likely favor drive-to leisure markets over gateway markets reliant on international visitors. Gains among younger and higher-income households point toward Class A multifamily and higher-end retail over value-oriented tenants.
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 by a 10-2 vote, six weeks after its September 16 hike, the first since July 2023. Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. The statement described growth as strong and inflation as elevated, with no forward guidance. Chair Warsh said first-half GDP growth was revised up to 2.4% from 1.8% and that Q3 growth likely exceeded 3%. Futures then priced roughly an 85% chance of a December hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 5 bp to 5.04%.
The hold was expected, so the long end matters more. The 10-year has hovered near or above 5% since crossing that level in mid-September, its highest since 2007. With a December hike largely priced in, the bid-ask gap is unlikely to narrow soon. Refinancing remains hardest for loans originated at 2020–2022 rates and lower-DSCR assets, floating-rate bridge borrowers face higher debt service, and lenders are likely to stay conservative into 2027.
Q3 2026 GDP (Advance Estimate) and Personal Income and Outlays
Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 (2.2% in Q2), per BEA’s October 29 releases. Investment led, driven by inventories and equipment (mainly computers), with consumer and federal spending also contributing. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%. Quarterly PCE inflation slowed to 2.1% annualized, and core to 2.5%. September was softer: real PCE was essentially flat, real disposable income fell 0.3%, and the saving rate was 3.8%. PCE prices rose 0.5% month over month (core 0.3%), putting year-over-year PCE inflation at 3.6% and core at 3.1%.
Much of the nominal gain appears to reflect fuel prices rather than volume, so real spending growth was likely modest. Weak core categories suggest energy costs are limiting discretionary budgets, which could weigh on value-oriented general merchandise and apparel tenants. Restaurant spending held up, a positive for food and beverage tenancy in shopping centers and mixed-use. Grocery-anchored centers could see some benefit if higher fuel costs push households away from dining out, though year-over-year grocery growth is minimal. Higher freight and input costs from the PPI, including truck freight up 19.3% year over year, could also pressure retailer margins and store expansion plans into the holiday season.
News
News to know
Demand for industrial outdoor storage (IOS) is rising alongside the data center build-out, as yards of typically under 10 acres are used to stage steel, concrete, generators, and vehicles near construction sites. Supply is tight because new IOS sites are difficult to permit in most of the country. Nationally, IOS rents are up 32% since 2021 per CBRE, while the top eight port-oriented markets, including Houston, Savannah, and Norfolk, have seen rents rise more than 110% since 2020 per Alterra IOS. Institutional capital is following: Brookfield agreed to acquire Peakstone Realty Trust for $1.2 billion, a Starwood Property Trust venture provided a $672 million loan on an IOS portfolio in August, and aggregators are assembling portfolios from small regional owners, with one estimate putting the investable universe near $300 billion.
SASBs Dominate Conduits 3 to 1 in 2026 CMBS Market (Commercial Observer, 2026-10-26)
According to CRED iQ, single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) and large-loan deals totaled $66 billion of private-label CMBS issuance through September, versus $21.2 billion for conduits, or 76% of the $87.2 billion total. Combined volume is up 2% from a year earlier. Collateral is rotating away from office and retail: SASB office issuance fell to $12.5 billion from $22.4 billion and SASB retail halved to $5.1 billion, while SASB multifamily rose to $10 billion from $2.9 billion, hotels to $11.3 billion from $8.8 billion, and data centers reached $6.2 billion. Across both channels, multifamily’s share of issuance more than doubled to 18% from 8%, while retail fell to 9% from 16%. Conduits remain concentrated in conventional collateral, with fixed-rate loans at a 6.43% weighted average coupon, while 60% of SASB balance is floating-rate.
Aging Boomers Fuel $28 Billion Investor Rush Into Senior Housing (Bloomberg, 2026-10-27)
US senior housing sales reached roughly $28 billion through September, exceeding any full-year total in Newmark data going back to 2001 and up 111% from the first nine months of 2025. That is the largest increase of any property type outside data centers. The sector returned an average of 16.2% in the second quarter, versus 4.9% for industrial and 4.1% for office. The Census Bureau projects the population aged 80 and older will grow more than 50% in the decade through 2035, with the oldest baby boomers turning 80 this year. New supply remains constrained by high construction costs, tariffs, elevated interest rates, and a more complicated development process, which is keeping property values high.
NYC’s Office-Conversion Projects Are Back After a Big Summer Scare (Wall Street Journal, 2026-10-27)
New York City has issued 16 initial construction permits for office-to-apartment conversions since July, when structural columns buckled at the former Pfizer headquarters, the city’s largest conversion project with more than 1,600 units planned. The Department of Buildings inspected 24 other conversion sites and concluded the failure was specific to a complex enlargement of that building rather than an inherent conversion risk. The permit pace remains well below the first half of the year, reflecting tighter lender scrutiny and higher interest rates. The city expects up to 12,000 apartments from conversions in the coming years, including a downtown Brooklyn project converting a 24-story tower that never attracted an office tenant, with an 18 to 20 month timeline versus four to five years for ground-up development. Elevated rates, construction costs, and a recovering office market are complicating the economics for some owners.
Wall Street’s AI Debt Machine Is Starting to Choke on Supply (Bloomberg, 2026-10-28)
Credit markets are struggling to absorb debt tied to the AI infrastructure buildout, with at least 18 data center financings in the junk bond and leveraged loan markets now carrying double-digit yields. Firms have raised a record $460 billion of AI-related debt globally this year, while data center ABS and CMBS issuance totals only about $22 billion, barely ahead of last year. The highest-rated data center bonds yielded below 5% at the start of 2026 and now yield closer to 7%. Credit default swap costs on Oracle, Nvidia, and Meta have reached record highs, and lenders say offloading risk can take up to five months. Investors are also scrutinizing contract terms that let tenants exit if projects are delayed by three to six months, and some lenders are avoiding remote locations over repurposing risk.
Fed Pauses Interest Rates as CRE Market Preps for December Hike (Commercial Observer, 2026-10-28)
The FOMC voted 10-2 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, six weeks after its first hike since 2023, with both dissents favoring a quarter-point increase. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, and 16 of 18 committee members signaled support for one more hike this year. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.992% on October 27 after crossing 5% in September for the first time since 2007. Lenders have reset internal loan-to-value assumptions following the Treasury run-up, and uncertainty over the rate path has slowed investment sales, with distressed sellers driving much of the fall volume. Private lenders remain active, while CMBS has been more affected by elevated rates.
The Fed’s Pause Opens a Window for Distressed Commercial Property Buyers (GlobeSt, 2026-10-29)
The Fed held rates this week, with a December hike widely expected and the 10-year Treasury near 5%. Trepp estimates $733.2 billion of CRE loans mature in 2027, and lenders are pulling back on extensions, with stress most acute in hotels and multifamily, where floating-rate bridge loans have reset from near 4% to around 9%. Sellers have yet to reprice, leaving apartment deals falling through or repriced by up to 10% and transaction activity largely stalled. Global private equity dry powder stands at about $1.3 trillion, favoring buyers with heavy equity. CMBS office delinquency reached 12.16% in September, and Los Angeles towers are trading near $130 to $150 per square foot versus a pre-pandemic average near $450.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Developers diversify as data centers reshape CRE capital and demand
Cole and Omar just got back from the CREDA conference in Denver, and they brought Shawn Moura, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA) Research Foundation, into the studio to break down what he’s seeing in the industry. We discuss why developers are spreading across more property types, how data centers became the force reshaping everything - from capital flows to electricity access to office demand - and what CREDA’s research is showing heading into 2027.
Article | San Francisco’s AI-led multifamily recovery: Why one size does not fit all
San Francisco and Oakland posted the strongest year-over-year multi-family market rent growth of any major US CBSA for the year ending Q2 2026, at 8.6% and 6.0% respectively. That strength was concentrated in a handful of submarkets, not spread evenly across the metros. Chisem Phillips, multifamily market expert at Altus Group, takes a closer look in his latest article.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EDT)
Monday, November 2
9:45AM: US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00AM: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00AM: Construction Spending (Sep)
Tuesday, November 3
10:00AM: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (Sep)
10:00AM: Factory Orders (Sep)
Wednesday, November 4
8:15AM: ADP National Employment Report (Oct)
8:30AM: U.S. Trade Balance (Sep)
9:45AM: US Services PMI (Oct)
10:00AM: ISM Services PMI (Oct)
Thursday, November 5
8:30AM: Preliminary Productivity and Costs (Q3)
8:30AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Oct 31)
Friday, November 6
8:30AM: Employment Report, Unemployment Rate, and Hourly Earnings (Oct)
10:00AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary (Nov)
3:00PM: Consumer Credit (Sep)
Upcoming Industry Events
November 16 - 19: NAREIT REITworld Annual Conference (Atlanta, GA)
December 9 - 10: ICSC New York 2026 (New York, NY)
FEAtured EVENT
April 26-28, 2027 • New York City
Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel
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About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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