The 70s are calling, are the CRE markets listening?
12 Mar 2026
Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording.
Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE.
In this episode, we’re joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market.
Resources mentioned:
Key moments
01:29 - Brian’s career journey
07:00 - From Fed to Trimont
09:09 - Office lending sentiment
11:55 - Trimont data advantage
14:11 - Stagflation and expenses
18:20 - Capital markets inflection
22:03 - Wall of maturities
25:54 - Non-bank lending risks
29:52 - 2026 themes by sector
32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks
34:36 - An industry wish for transparency
Our guest and hosts
Brian Bailey
Senior Managing Director and Head of Research
Trimont
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Resources
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Disclaimer
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