Commercial investment and leasing markets expected to be relatively stable next year, with some upside potential for new home sales.

Commercial investment & land market

  • Investment property sales volumes in the Vancouver Market Area totalled $12.88 billion in 2018, down from the record set in 2017, but still the second highest annual total recorded by Altus Group.
  • Investment property sales slow significantly in first half of 2019.
  • Residential Land sales plummet in the first half of 2019.
  • Starlight Investments’ acquisition of Montecito Towers for $90 million will provide a boost to Apartment investment levels in the second half of 2019.

Industrial & office markets

  • Demand for industrial space continues to outstrip new supply.
  • The office vacancy rate continues to fall as little new supply added.
  • Most of the new office supply on the way is in the Downtown area.

Residential development market

  • New condominium apartment sales in the first half of 2019 dropped to their lowest first half since 2009.
  • New home sales down in 2019 throughout most of the Vancouver Market Area.
  • New condominium apartment supply now in a more balanced situation.

Homebuyers

  • Homebuying intentions up this year among potential first-time buyers.
  • Not all younger households are being priced out of the housing market.
  • Most Vancouver first-time buyers do not have a high ratio mortgage.

Although the strain of the ongoing slump in energy prices continues to weigh on the Calgary real estate sector, the outlook is cautiously optimistic.

Commercial investment & land market

  • Total investment volumes in the Calgary Market Area increased to $3.68 billion in 2018, the highest annual total since 2012.
  • Investment property sales quieter in first half of 2019.
  • Residential Land sales fall back in the first half of 2019 after improvement last year.
  • Minto Apartment GP Inc.’s acquisition of The Quarters accounted for almost one-third of Apartment investment in the first half of 2019.

Industrial & office markets

  • The industrial vacancy rate is up again on the back of additional new supply.
  • Calgary continues to be the most oversupplied major office market in Canada.
  • Suburban office market faring slightly better.

Residential development market

  • New condominium apartment sales in the first half of 2019 dropped to their lowest level since 2010.
  • Unsold new condominium apartment inventory represents about 2 years of supply at the pace of recent sales.
  • The new home market in the central area continues to under perform.

Homebuyers

  • Homebuying intentions up among key first-time buyer group.
  • Buyers under 35 years – who are mostly first-time buyers – account for more than half of Calgary home sales.
  • Many first-time buyers in Calgary are getting help from their parents for their downpayment.

Real estate activity in the Edmonton Market Area was relatively robust in 2018 despite the economic headwinds.

Commercial investment & land market

  • Total investment volumes in the Edmonton Market Area increased to $3.94 billion in 2018, the third consecutive year-over-year increase.
  • Sales of Retail properties in Q1 2019 reached their lowest level in almost 3 years.
  • Medium Density land accounted for almost half of total Residential Land sales in 2018.
  • Skyline Apartment REIT’s acquisition of the Portofino Suites accounted for almost one-third of Q1 2019 investment in Apartments.

Industrial & office markets

  • Industrial vacancy rate climbs higher on the back of additional new supply.
  • With little additional new supply in the pipeline, the vacancy rate should start to move down again.
  • There is no space currently under construction in the downtown area – and little in the suburbs.

Residential development market

  • New multi-family home sales reversed down again in 2018, with a further dip in early 2019.
  • The excess inventory situation in the new condominium apartment sector has deteriorated again in the past year.
  • New multi-family sales down in all submarkets except the West.

Homebuyers

  • Homebuying intentions down sharply this Spring.
  • Buyers under 35 years – who are mostly first-time buyers – account for about half of Edmonton home sales.
  • About one-fifth of recent first-time buyers used RRSP funds as the primary source of their downpayment.

2020 promises to be another solid year for both the new home and investment property sectors in the GTA.

Commercial investment & land market

  • Total investment property sales volumes in the Greater Toronto Area rebounded in 2019 to $22.6 billion, the 2nd highest annual volume yet recorded by Altus Group.
  • The Industrial and Apartment sectors were the biggest contributors to increased investment property sales volumes in
    the GTA in 2019.
  • The decline in total Residential Land sales volumes was led by Low Density land sales.
  • The $640 million purchase of the Atrium on Bay contributed to another record year for Office transactions in the GTA.

Industrial & office markets

  • Demand for industrial space continues to outstrip new supply.
  • Office vacancy rate approaching pre-recession levels.
  • Tight Downtown submarket is home to overwhelming majority of space under construction.

Residential development market

  • After a slow start to the year, total new home sales in the GTA rebounded in 2019, up 47% from 2018.
  • The gap in the benchmark price for a new single-family home and a new condominium apartment in the GTA continued to narrow in 2019.
  • Relatively low new condominium apartment inventories driving price increases.

Homebuyers

  • More hesitation in homebuying intentions.
  • Most younger renters would like to own a home someday.
  • Not all younger households are being priced out of homeownership.

Marché de l’investissement et des terrains non résidentiels

  • Le volume des ventes de propriétés d’investissement dans le marché de Montréal s’élève à 6,5 milliards de dollars en 2018, soit une hausse de 18 % par rapport à 2017.
  • Le secteur multi-résidentiel a continué d’attirer le plus de capitaux en 2018.
  • Plus de la moitié de la valeur des ventes de terrains résidentiels sont à vocation haute densité.
  • L’acquisition de 112 millions de dollars par Akelius dans l’arrondissement de Ville-Marie a contribué à l’excellente performance du secteur multi-résidentiel en 2018, en plus de faire croître le volume de capitaux étrangers.

Marché industriel et des immeubles de bureaux

  • La forte demande en espace industriel a encore fait diminuer le taux d’inoccupation en 2018 malgré l’augmentation de l’offre.
  • La construction de nouveaux édifices à bureaux a chuté à son niveau le plus bas depuis 2011.
  • Deux tiers des nouveauximmeubles de bureaux enconstruction sont situés au centre-ville de Montréal.

Marché de la copropriété résidentielle neuve

  • Les ventes de copropriétés résidentielles neuves augmentent davantage en 2018.
  • L’inventaire des copropriétés résidentielles neuves chute à 7 mois d’approvisionnement.
  • Les ventes de copropriétés résidentielles neuves ont augmenté dans tout le marché de Montréal en 2018.

Acheteurs résidentiels

  • Les premiers acheteurs potentiels sont plus hésitants cette année.
  • De nombreux locataires plus jeunes veulent acheter une propriété, mais ils épargnent encore pour la mise de fonds.
  • Le segment des premiers acheteurs représentait à lui seul la moitié des achats d’unités d’habitation.

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