CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
April 27, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of April 27, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
The U.S. Census Bureau released advance retail and food services sales for March 2026 on April 21. Total sales came in at $752.1 billion, up 1.7% from February and 4.0% year over year, but the headline was heavily distorted by a 15.5% surge in gasoline station receipts reflecting a large jump in pump prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding gas stations, sales rose 0.6%, and core sales excluding both autos and gas also increased 0.6%. Nonstore retailers were up 10.1% year over year while food services edged up just 0.1% on the month.
Stripped of gasoline, the March print reflects a consumer spending at a moderate pace, supported in part by tax refund timing. The spending measure most relevant to GDP came in at 0.7%, a beat versus the 0.2% consensus, but real gains were limited after accounting for inflation. Higher gas prices are beginning to crowd out discretionary budgets, particularly for lower-income households. With consumer sentiment at record lows, tax refund support unlikely to repeat, and fuel costs tied to an open-ended geopolitical situation, the demand outlook heading into Q2 warrants caution across consumer-facing property sectors.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose 1.5% month over month in March but fell 1.1% year over year. Regionally, the Northeast gained 4.4% on the month and the South rose 3.9%, while the Midwest fell 1.3% and the West declined 2.6%. On an annual basis, only the South posted a gain at 2.3%, with the other three regions contracting. Among the 50 largest metros, Kansas City led year-over-year gains at 14.9%, followed by Milwaukee at 13.5% and Austin at 12.8%.
The monthly bounce is a modest positive, but the year-over-year decline confirms that housing demand remains constrained. Mortgage rates have not fallen enough to meaningfully unlock sidelined buyers, and affordability continues to cap transaction velocity. For multifamily, the stagnation in ownership activity extends renter tenure, supporting occupancy across markets where ownership remains out of reach. The South's outperformance, driven by a combination of price adjustments and job growth, is worth watching as a leading indicator for multifamily lease-up and retail demand in Sun Belt markets.
The University of Michigan released its final Consumer Sentiment Index for April on April 24, with the headline index coming in at 49.8, down 3.5 points from March's 53.3 and 4.6% below year-ago levels. The Current Economic Conditions index fell to 52.5 and the Index of Consumer Expectations dropped to 48.1, with declines broad-based across political affiliation, income, age, and education. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.7% from 3.8% in March, the largest one-month increase since April 2025, while long-run expectations climbed to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. Sentiment recovered modestly after a two-week trade cease-fire was announced and gasoline prices eased, but the overall reading is now comparable to the June 2022 trough.
Sentiment at these levels and inflation expectations this elevated have not historically translated one-for-one into actual spending or price outcomes, but the direction matters. If inflation expectations prove accurate, the Fed's path to rate cuts narrows, which would keep pressure on borrowing costs and cap rates. If the pullback in confidence feeds through to actual spending, consumer-facing property types would face softer demand, particularly in discretionary retail and hospitality. The partial recovery tied to trade policy news rather than improving household finances suggests the index remains event-driven, and a renewed deterioration in either energy prices or tariff headlines could quickly reverse recent gains.
News
News to know
News to know
AI is rewiring underwriting, but can real estate trust it? | Bisnow, April 19, 2026
Underwriters are integrating AI but keeping humans on the final call. MBA projects $806B in 2026 commercial mortgage origination, up 27% from $633.7B in 2025. JLL's Becci Curry: "Somebody wants someone, not just an AI, to blame if something goes wrong." CBRE's Michael Riccio says the firm is on track for 16% YoY sales-activity growth with similar debt-side action, and noted real estate has shifted from long-term hold to traded commodity with three-to-five-year holds now the norm. Argus and custom spreadsheets face new competition, Mike Broder's RCKRBX surveys thousands in a region to map 36-month multifamily demand; Avison Young built a proprietary Office Busyness Index. Anchin's Robb Gilman: "I wouldn't give AI $20M to invest."
CRE loan spreads tighten across property sectors | CRED iQ via Commercial Observer, April 20, 2026
CRED iQ's proprietary loan analytics show 10-year CRE spreads to U.S. Treasuries tightened 12–18 basis points over the trailing 12 months ending Q1 2026, with most compression occurring in Q1. As of March 31, spreads on 60–65% LTV permanent CRE loans stood at 154 bps (multifamily), 162 bps (industrial), 176 bps (retail), and 220 bps (office). With the 10-year Treasury at 4.25% as of April 8, implied all-in coupons are roughly 5.79%, 5.87%, 6.01%, and 6.45% respectively. Multifamily led the compression at 18 bps; office fell 17 bps from 237 bps. CMBS conduit 10-year pricing sits near 250 bps over benchmark; life company 10-year quotes have narrowed to roughly 170 bps at 50–65% LTV. 30-day average SOFR is near 3.65%.
US homebuilders set for another "lost" earnings season | Bloomberg, April 20, 2026
Homebuilders are heading into Q1 2026 earnings bracing for another tough quarter as the Iran war pushed up mortgage rates and materials costs at the start of spring selling season. NAHB/Wells Fargo sentiment fell to a seven-month low of 34 in April (values below 50 indicate negative conditions); current and future sales measures both deteriorated. Wolfe Research's December survey showed incentives climbed to 5.15% of orders while gross margins declined for the second consecutive month. Nearly 60% of surveyed builders are starting fewer homes than they're selling to reduce inventory pressure. Analyst buy ratings on DR Horton dropped to 29% from 41% YoY. UBS analyst John Lovallo: "Consumer confidence has absolutely been impacted." DR Horton reports Tuesday, PulteGroup Thursday, NVR this week.
Private credit vs. commercial banking: Neck and neck | Commercial Observer, April 21, 2026
Three years after the 2023 regional banking crisis and 15 years after private credit went mainstream post-GFC, the CRE lending landscape is defined by pure competition. Private credit advocates cite bespoke solutions, relationship-driven service, and the scale of the maturity wall. Peachtree Group originated $3B in 2025; 3650 Capital originated $2.1B. Peachtree CEO Greg Friedman: "The banking model continues to be broken, and the ability for private lenders like Peachtree to step in is only growing with the wall of debt maturities." Banks counter with CMBS distribution scale and full-lifecycle product suites. UBS's David Nass ran $10B across CMBS, balance sheet, and mortgage loans in 2025 through six distinct real estate finance businesses. Deutsche Bank's Dino Paparelli: "Only large international banks have origination, CMBS capital market skills, distribution networks, and secondary trading floors."
Owner and renter housing costs diverge in latest state rankings | GlobeSt, April 23, 2026
A WalletHub analysis of housing costs as a share of median household income shows Hawaii homeowners spending roughly 50% of income on shelter, compared to sub-20% in Iowa and other Midwest states. California ranks second at 43%, with Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington rounding out the top five for owner cost burden. On the renter side, New York ranks as the most expensive state, while Kansas sits at the bottom. Nationally, median gross rent consumes about 31% of renter income versus 21% for mortgaged homeowners. For multifamily investors, the data highlight markets where rent-to-income ratios are nearing practical ceilings, particularly in coastal states, versus Midwest and Southern markets where landlords retain more pricing latitude before crossing the 30% cost-burden threshold.
CRE M&A poised for rebound after sharp deal decline | GlobeSt, April 24, 2026
Following a 57% drop in deal value in 2025, Deloitte's 2026 CRE M&A Outlook projects a recovery driven by pent-up transaction volume and abundant capital rather than rate movements. Consolidation is expected among investment managers and service providers seeking scale, with property management, property accounting, and technology-enabled platforms cited as attractive targets. Data infrastructure, predictive maintenance, and power-led site selection for data centers are highlighted as key value drivers.
Senior housing occupancy rose 0.4 percentage points to 89.5% in Q1 2026, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of gains, according to NIC MAP. Occupied units reached 637,000, while units under construction fell to their lowest level since 2012 and year-over-year inventory growth hit a record low of 0.4%. NIC's head of research attributed the development stall to capital constraints rather than weak demand, noting that elevated labor and material costs and valuation dynamics are keeping developers on the sidelines and pushing investors toward acquisitions of existing properties.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | The growing case for real estate secondaries
Real estate secondaries are growing, and the current environment is accelerating that trend.
In the latest CRE Exchange, Cole Perry sits down with Chris Muoio, Managing Director of Data and Research at Madison International Realty, for a practical breakdown of the direct secondaries market: how deals are sourced, underwritten, and structured, and where the opportunity is concentrating right now.
Our research in the news | Open-air malls lead retail megadeals in Los Angeles
Open-air malls are driving a retail investment resurgence in the Los Angeles area, with landmark deals like the $530M sale of Victoria Gardens highlighting surging investor appetite for lifestyle centers that offer community-focused experiences. Data from the Altus Research team, cited in the article, underscores this momentum: single-property retail transactions in the LA metro rose nearly 30% year-over-year in 2025, with dollar volume climbing from $4.4B to $4.6B.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EST)
Tuesday, April 29
9:00 AM: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Feb)
10:00 AM: Consumer Confidence (Apr)
Wednesday, April 30
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders (Mar)
8:30 AM: Housing Starts (Feb and Mar)
8:30 AM: Building Permits (Feb and Mar)
8:30 AM: Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods (Mar)
8:30 AM: Advanced Retail Inventories (Mar)
8:30 AM: Advanced Wholesale Inventories (Mar)
Thursday, May 1
8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)
8:30 AM: Employment Cost Index (Q1)
8:30 AM: GDP (Q1)
8:30 AM: Personal Income (Mar)
8:30 AM: Personal Spending (Mar)
8:30 AM: PCE Index (Mar)
9:45 AM: Chicago PMI (Apr)
10:00 AM: Leading Economic Indicators (Feb)
Upcoming industry events
May 5 – May 7: ULI Spring Meeting (Nashville, TN)
May 17 – May 20: MBA CRE Servicing Solutions Conference (San Diego, CA)
May 18 – May 20: ICSC Las Vegas
May 19 – May 20: Real Estate Research Institute Annual Conference (Chicago, IL)
May 20 – May 21: NAIOP I.CON East (Jersey City, NJ)
May 28 – May 29: AREUEA National Conference (Washington, DC)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
Resources
Latest insights
