CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
November 9, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of November 9, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management reported on November 2 that its Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, the 10th straight month of expansion. Production jumped 2.3 points to 59.0, the highest since November 2021, while the Prices Index eased to 75.2 but has signaled rising input costs for 25 straight months. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.9 from a 52-month high of 55.9, though it showed the fastest output price inflation since September 2022 and the strongest payroll growth in about five and a half years. The gap likely reflects different panels, with ISM weighted toward larger, globally exposed manufacturers and S&P including more mid-sized, domestically focused producers.
Both readings are well above 50, so the level signal is consistent: firmer demand for light industrial and advanced manufacturing space, with AI and data center equipment a clear order driver. Rising output and hiring support leasing and owner-user demand for infill industrial space. Both indexes measure the breadth of activity rather than volume, so they say more about direction than magnitude.
The cost side matters more for development. Steel, aluminum, copper, and electrical components are up in price, electronic components remain in short supply, and S&P’s supplier delivery times were the longest since August 2022. That will pressure budgets and timelines for industrial, data center, and other metals-intensive projects.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, ADP Employment, and October Employment Report
The JOLTS report for September, released November 3, showed job openings little changed at 7.5 million (4.5% rate), with quits up to 3.4 million and layoffs and discharges steady at 1.6 million. Professional and business services openings rose 106,000 while hires in the sector fell 30,000.
The ADP National Employment Report for October, released November 4, showed private employers added 86,000 jobs, led by trade, transportation, and utilities (39,000). Professional and business services lost jobs for the third straight month. Job-changer pay growth was the fastest since March 2024.
The BLS Employment Situation for October, released November 6, showed nonfarm payrolls up 165,000, against a prior 12-month average of 48,000, with the unemployment rate little changed at 4.1%. Professional and business services added 70,000, health care 42,000, and transportation and warehousing 25,000, while leisure and hospitality fell 13,000. Involuntary part-time work rose 339,000 to 4.8 million. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year over year, in nominal terms.
For office, the signals conflict: ADP shows professional and business services losing jobs while BLS shows a gain. Within the BLS gain, professional, scientific, and technical services (+33,000) matters most for office demand, while administrative and support gains lean on temp help. Health care (+42,000) supports medical office and senior housing, and transportation and warehousing gains favor logistics space.
Solid October hiring in both ADP and BLS supports consumer spending. However, 3.1% nominal wage growth is roughly flat after inflation, so that support comes more from job gains than pay. A labor market that is not weakening makes meaningful near-term declines in borrowing costs less likely. The leisure and hospitality decline and the rise in involuntary part-time work are the soft spots.
The Census Bureau released September construction spending on November 2, showing a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.186 trillion, down 1.9% from August and 2.7% below September 2025. Both changes are statistically significant. Figures are nominal and include renovations and improvements. Private spending fell 2.4% on the month to $1.639 trillion, driven by a 5.5% drop in residential to $849 billion. Private nonresidential rose 1.1% to $791 billion, up 2.3% year over year. Public spending was flat at $547 billion.
Within private nonresidential, data centers stand apart at $96.5 billion, up 8.6% on the month and 90.3% year over year. Excluding data centers, private nonresidential spending was essentially flat on the month and down roughly 4% year over year (our calculation. Warehouse fell 1.9% on the month and 8.0% on the year, commercial (inclusive of retail) fell 4.4% year over year, and manufacturing fell 17.9% as CHIPS- and IRA-era projects complete. Power is the other bright spot, up 12.1% on the year.
In real terms, declines in the weaker categories are larger. Office, warehouse, and retail pipelines are shrinking, and the higher metals and component costs in this week’s PMI data are leading signals of higher development budgets. As a result, near-term new supply is unlikely to pressure fundamentals for existing assets in those sectors.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released preliminary Q3 2026 data on November 5. Nonfarm business labor productivity rose 3.6% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, as output grew 3.7% and hours worked rose 0.1%. Productivity was up 2.1% year over year. Unit labor costs fell 0.7% on the quarter but remain up 2.4% year over year. Hourly compensation, a broader measure than average hourly earnings that includes benefits, rose 2.9% on the quarter and 4.5% year over year. The labor share of output fell to 53.0%, the lowest since the series began in 1947. Manufacturing productivity rose 0.3%, while manufacturing unit labor costs rose 2.7% on the quarter and 4.0% year over year. Q2 productivity was revised up to 2.1% from 1.4%, and preliminary estimates are subject to large revisions.
Output growth on nearly flat hours is consistent with AI adoption contributing to productivity. One preliminary quarter is not enough to attribute the gain, though, and October payrolls point to firmer hiring since.
For office, headcount matters more than productivity. If firms meet demand through efficiency gains rather than hiring, incremental space demand slows. That would likely show up first in slower expansion of entry-level and support roles rather than shrinking footprints, favoring prime assets and widening the gap with secondary space. The record-low labor share suggests gains are going to margins rather than wages. That supports tenant credit quality but limits the household income growth behind retail and multifamily demand.
Q3 2026 GDP (Advance Estimate) and Personal Income and Outlays
Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 (2.2% in Q2), per BEA’s October 29 releases. Investment led, driven by inventories and equipment (mainly computers), with consumer and federal spending also contributing. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%. Quarterly PCE inflation slowed to 2.1% annualized, and core to 2.5%. September was softer: real PCE was essentially flat, real disposable income fell 0.3%, and the saving rate was 3.8%. PCE prices rose 0.5% month over month (core 0.3%), putting year-over-year PCE inflation at 3.6% and core at 3.1%.
Much of the nominal gain appears to reflect fuel prices rather than volume, so real spending growth was likely modest. Weak core categories suggest energy costs are limiting discretionary budgets, which could weigh on value-oriented general merchandise and apparel tenants. Restaurant spending held up, a positive for food and beverage tenancy in shopping centers and mixed-use. Grocery-anchored centers could see some benefit if higher fuel costs push households away from dining out, though year-over-year grocery growth is minimal. Higher freight and input costs from the PPI, including truck freight up 19.3% year over year, could also pressure retailer margins and store expansion plans into the holiday season.
News
News to know
Demand for industrial outdoor storage (IOS) is rising alongside the data center build-out, as yards of typically under 10 acres are used to stage steel, concrete, generators, and vehicles near construction sites. Supply is tight because new IOS sites are difficult to permit in most of the country. Nationally, IOS rents are up 32% since 2021 per CBRE, while the top eight port-oriented markets, including Houston, Savannah, and Norfolk, have seen rents rise more than 110% since 2020 per Alterra IOS. Institutional capital is following: Brookfield agreed to acquire Peakstone Realty Trust for $1.2 billion, a Starwood Property Trust venture provided a $672 million loan on an IOS portfolio in August, and aggregators are assembling portfolios from small regional owners, with one estimate putting the investable universe near $300 billion.
SASBs Dominate Conduits 3 to 1 in 2026 CMBS Market (Commercial Observer, 2026-10-26)
According to CRED iQ, single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) and large-loan deals totaled $66 billion of private-label CMBS issuance through September, versus $21.2 billion for conduits, or 76% of the $87.2 billion total. Combined volume is up 2% from a year earlier. Collateral is rotating away from office and retail: SASB office issuance fell to $12.5 billion from $22.4 billion and SASB retail halved to $5.1 billion, while SASB multifamily rose to $10 billion from $2.9 billion, hotels to $11.3 billion from $8.8 billion, and data centers reached $6.2 billion. Across both channels, multifamily’s share of issuance more than doubled to 18% from 8%, while retail fell to 9% from 16%. Conduits remain concentrated in conventional collateral, with fixed-rate loans at a 6.43% weighted average coupon, while 60% of SASB balance is floating-rate.
Aging Boomers Fuel $28 Billion Investor Rush Into Senior Housing (Bloomberg, 2026-10-27)
US senior housing sales reached roughly $28 billion through September, exceeding any full-year total in Newmark data going back to 2001 and up 111% from the first nine months of 2025. That is the largest increase of any property type outside data centers. The sector returned an average of 16.2% in the second quarter, versus 4.9% for industrial and 4.1% for office. The Census Bureau projects the population aged 80 and older will grow more than 50% in the decade through 2035, with the oldest baby boomers turning 80 this year. New supply remains constrained by high construction costs, tariffs, elevated interest rates, and a more complicated development process, which is keeping property values high.
NYC’s Office-Conversion Projects Are Back After a Big Summer Scare (Wall Street Journal, 2026-10-27)
New York City has issued 16 initial construction permits for office-to-apartment conversions since July, when structural columns buckled at the former Pfizer headquarters, the city’s largest conversion project with more than 1,600 units planned. The Department of Buildings inspected 24 other conversion sites and concluded the failure was specific to a complex enlargement of that building rather than an inherent conversion risk. The permit pace remains well below the first half of the year, reflecting tighter lender scrutiny and higher interest rates. The city expects up to 12,000 apartments from conversions in the coming years, including a downtown Brooklyn project converting a 24-story tower that never attracted an office tenant, with an 18 to 20 month timeline versus four to five years for ground-up development. Elevated rates, construction costs, and a recovering office market are complicating the economics for some owners.
Wall Street’s AI Debt Machine Is Starting to Choke on Supply (Bloomberg, 2026-10-28)
Credit markets are struggling to absorb debt tied to the AI infrastructure buildout, with at least 18 data center financings in the junk bond and leveraged loan markets now carrying double-digit yields. Firms have raised a record $460 billion of AI-related debt globally this year, while data center ABS and CMBS issuance totals only about $22 billion, barely ahead of last year. The highest-rated data center bonds yielded below 5% at the start of 2026 and now yield closer to 7%. Credit default swap costs on Oracle, Nvidia, and Meta have reached record highs, and lenders say offloading risk can take up to five months. Investors are also scrutinizing contract terms that let tenants exit if projects are delayed by three to six months, and some lenders are avoiding remote locations over repurposing risk.
Fed Pauses Interest Rates as CRE Market Preps for December Hike (Commercial Observer, 2026-10-28)
The FOMC voted 10-2 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, six weeks after its first hike since 2023, with both dissents favoring a quarter-point increase. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, and 16 of 18 committee members signaled support for one more hike this year. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.992% on October 27 after crossing 5% in September for the first time since 2007. Lenders have reset internal loan-to-value assumptions following the Treasury run-up, and uncertainty over the rate path has slowed investment sales, with distressed sellers driving much of the fall volume. Private lenders remain active, while CMBS has been more affected by elevated rates.
The Fed’s Pause Opens a Window for Distressed Commercial Property Buyers (GlobeSt, 2026-10-29)
The Fed held rates this week, with a December hike widely expected and the 10-year Treasury near 5%. Trepp estimates $733.2 billion of CRE loans mature in 2027, and lenders are pulling back on extensions, with stress most acute in hotels and multifamily, where floating-rate bridge loans have reset from near 4% to around 9%. Sellers have yet to reprice, leaving apartment deals falling through or repriced by up to 10% and transaction activity largely stalled. Global private equity dry powder stands at about $1.3 trillion, favoring buyers with heavy equity. CMBS office delinquency reached 12.16% in September, and Los Angeles towers are trading near $130 to $150 per square foot versus a pre-pandemic average near $450.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Developers diversify as data centers reshape CRE capital and demand
Cole and Omar just got back from the CREDA conference in Denver, and they brought Shawn Moura, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA) Research Foundation, into the studio to break down what he’s seeing in the industry. We discuss why developers are spreading across more property types, how data centers became the force reshaping everything - from capital flows to electricity access to office demand - and what CREDA’s research is showing heading into 2027.
Article | San Francisco’s AI-led multifamily recovery: Why one size does not fit all
San Francisco and Oakland posted the strongest year-over-year multi-family market rent growth of any major US CBSA for the year ending Q2 2026, at 8.6% and 6.0% respectively. That strength was concentrated in a handful of submarkets, not spread evenly across the metros. Chisem Phillips, multifamily market expert at Altus Group, takes a closer look in his latest article.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EDT)
Monday, November 2
9:45AM: US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00AM: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00AM: Construction Spending (Sep)
Tuesday, November 3
10:00AM: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (Sep)
10:00AM: Factory Orders (Sep)
Wednesday, November 4
8:15AM: ADP National Employment Report (Oct)
8:30AM: U.S. Trade Balance (Sep)
9:45AM: US Services PMI (Oct)
10:00AM: ISM Services PMI (Oct)
Thursday, November 5
8:30AM: Preliminary Productivity and Costs (Q3)
8:30AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Oct 31)
Friday, November 6
8:30AM: Employment Report, Unemployment Rate, and Hourly Earnings (Oct)
10:00AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary (Nov)
3:00PM: Consumer Credit (Sep)
Upcoming Industry Events
November 16 - 19: NAREIT REITworld Annual Conference (Atlanta, GA)
December 9 - 10: ICSC New York 2026 (New York, NY)
FEAtured EVENT
April 26-28, 2027 • New York City
Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel
Altus Connect 2027 brings together the industry’s most influential valuation professionals, operators, lenders, and technology leaders to explore the trends redefining commercial real estate.
Explore what’s next for the industry, exchange ideas, see first-hand how Altus is advancing the ARGUS Intelligence Platform and together let’s connect to shape what’s next.
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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