CRE This Week - What's impacting the United States market?
October 26, 2026 - US commercial real estate news, macroeconomic indicators and market analysis.
Week of October 26, 2026
Welcome to the latest edition of CRE This Week, curated by Altus Group’s US research team.
Our team has handpicked pertinent and noteworthy market indicators, articles, original research, and significant industry dates that are critical to the US commercial real estate sector. We understand that your time is valuable, so we're excited to deliver research that helps you stay informed and saves you some time each Monday morning.
For more key economic indicators that matter to commercial real estate, see Top Indicators by Major Asset Type.
Economic print
Macro economic factors impacting CRE
Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Completions, and the NAHB Housing Market Index
Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Completions, and the NAHB Housing Market Index: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for October, released October 19, fell three points to 29, the lowest reading since mid-2012 and the 30th consecutive month below the breakeven level of 50. Six-month sales expectations dropped five points to 32 and prospective buyer traffic fell five points to 18. A record 43% of builders cut prices, with the average cut at 6%, and 65% used incentives.
The Census Bureau and HUD released the New Residential Construction report for September on October 20. Total starts fell 5.2% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million and were down 7.4% year over year, though neither change is statistically significant. Single-family starts declined 4.6% to 859,000 (also not significant) but were up 2.6% year over year. Starts in buildings with five or more units fell 7.2% to 349,000, the lowest since May. Total permits were 1.400 million, down 3.0% year over year, with 5+ unit permits at 503,000. Completions rose 2.2% to 1.192 million but were down a statistically significant 14.0% year over year.
he HMI moves with single-family starts rather than ahead of them, so the sentiment drop is not a forecast on its own. Single-family starts are up year over year despite the weakest builder sentiment in 14 years, which suggests builders are holding volume with price cuts and incentives, although starts data carry wide sampling error. Starts outside single-family are implied to be down roughly 25% year over year. Starts in 5+ unit buildings are volatile and have averaged about 430,000 in 2026, so September sits well below trend while 5+ permits remain above it.
The year-over-year drop in completions should help absorb Sun Belt supply. Builder discounts and rate buydowns, meanwhile, compete with Class B apartments and build-to-rent communities.
The National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index for September 2026 on October 20, reporting a 7.3% monthly decline to a seasonally adjusted 66.0, down 11.3% from September 2025. August was revised to 71.2. All four regions fell on both measures, led by the West (-9.2% month over month, -15.0% year over year) and the South (-8.2%, -12.0%). The index is below the December 2025 (71.5) and January 2026 (70.8) readings. NAR attributed the weakness to rising mortgage rates.
Pending sales typically lead existing-home closings by one to two months, so resale activity is expected to stay weak through Q4. The same rate move is lifting commercial borrowing costs, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% and the average 30-year mortgage rate just over 7.3%, which keeps the bid-ask gap wide for transactions and refinancings. Weaker ownership demand should support renter retention, including in the South and West, where new supply is elevated and concessions remain common.
The University of Michigan released its final October consumer sentiment index on October 23. The headline reading was 48.0, little changed from 48.1 in September and down 10.4% from 53.6 a year ago. Current conditions fell 8.3% to 46.7, with the decline driven entirely by buying conditions for durables, which dropped 18% as consumers cited higher interest rates and affordability. The expectations index rose 5.4% to 48.8. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.7% from 4.6%, and long-run expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%, compared with a 2.8% to 3.2% range throughout 2024. The share of consumers citing high prices as a drag on their finances has risen 44% since January among the lowest tercile of stock wealth, versus 3% among the highest.
Weak durables sentiment points to possible softness in housing-linked retail such as furniture and home improvement, while strained affordability for would-be buyers could keep renters in place and support multifamily retention. The split by stock wealth suggests lower-income-oriented retail, including dollar and off-price formats and the centers they anchor, is more exposed than tenants serving higher-income households. Grocery and other necessity-based tenants should be more insulated, as should luxury formats. Long-run inflation expectations of 3.5% sit above the 2024 range, but they are survey responses, not realized inflation.
News
News to know
CRED iQ estimates that 23% of the $136 billion in agency and CMBS multifamily loans maturing between October 2026 and December 2028, representing 31% of the balance, could not refinance without new equity. The combined shortfall is $6.8 billion, with a median gap of 15% of the loan, or about $25,000 per unit. September’s 25 basis point SOFR increase to 3.85% pushed 178 more loans below a 1.25x coverage threshold and added $846 million to the gap; each further 25 basis points adds roughly $1 billion. Stress is concentrated in 2021 and 2022 vintages (median coupon of 3.35%), where 57% of the balance needs new equity versus 15% for 2016 to 2018 loans. San Francisco (70% of maturing debt), Atlanta (55%), and Denver (51%) show the widest gaps, compared with 13% in Chicago. CRED iQ expects more paydowns, extensions, and rescue capital through 2028.
The Ultrawealthy Are Reshaping the US South (Bloomberg, 2026-10-20)
Wealth migration to the US South is fueling a surge in ultraluxury housing, with Nashville among the fastest-growing markets. Sales of homes in the nation’s top 1% by price (about $3 million or more in 2025) have tripled in the Nashville metro since 2017, per Realtor.com data. Charlotte and Charleston also posted some of the largest gains through 2025, while Chicago and New York saw declines. Nashville’s entry price for the top tier was roughly 40% below the national threshold before the pandemic, and that discount has disappeared. Williamson County captured the largest net income gain from migration in the metro at $566 million, led by movers from Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. Corporate relocations, including AllianceBernstein’s headquarters move from Manhattan and Oracle’s planned campus for up to 8,500 workers, are reinforcing demand. Migration has slowed since the pandemic, but high-end demand has held, pushing up land prices, accelerating farmland loss, and pricing out middle-income residents.
FHA Opens Multifamily Financing to Build-to-Rent Communities (GlobeSt, 2026-10-20)
HUD’s Mortgagee Letter 2026-12 extends two FHA multifamily insurance programs to build-to-rent communities of detached homes, duplexes, and triplexes. Section 221(d)(4) covers new construction, and Section 223(f) covers acquisition or refinancing of properties with a certificate of occupancy less than three years old. HUD previously limited insured loans to buildings with at least four units, citing Fair Housing Act accessibility concerns. Communities must sit on a single contiguous site and operate as one rental property, with no sales of individual parcels or partial collateral releases during the loan term, which limits exit flexibility for sponsors. Management and amenities must align with comparable local properties, and manufactured or modular construction adds complexity for insuring advances.
Rising power costs, tighter regulation, and aging building systems are making energy efficiency a larger factor in CRE underwriting, according to JLL. Electricity prices in major markets are up 11% to 91% in real terms since 2020. Across 4,437 office properties in seven global markets, the most efficient buildings cost 43% to 75% less to operate, a gap of $1.58 to $5.13 per square foot annually. In Los Angeles, that gap grew from $2.78 to $4.06 per square foot between 2019 and 2024, while New York City’s rose from $2.27 to $2.69. JLL says much of the efficiency premium can be captured through operations, maintenance, and energy procurement rather than major capital spending. Regulatory exposure is also growing: 41% of the 75 cities JLL tracks reference enforceable building-performance standards, including 16 U.S. jurisdictions, and about 66% of 46,600 buildings analyzed performed poorly against leading standards. Under New York City’s Local Law 97, only about 20% of covered properties currently come in under the emissions limits expected for 2030 to 2034.
Tariffs, the Iran conflict, and shipping constraints in the Red Sea and Panama Canal have changed how goods enter the U.S. more than they have reduced volumes, with ports covered by the Global Port Tracker expected to handle 25.7 million TEUs in 2026, up 1% from 2025. Gateway growth has not translated uniformly into warehouse performance. Dallas posted 17 million square feet of net absorption in the first half of 2026 on Mexico cross-border freight and manufacturing growth, while Savannah container volume is up 24% since 2019 but development has outpaced tenant demand, leaving vacancy among the highest nationally. Nationally, second quarter industrial vacancy fell 60 basis points to 6.8% with 276 million square feet under construction. Savills expects container volumes to ease or stay flat as tariff-driven front-loading fades, while record manufacturing deliveries point to more durable demand. The Iran conflict is narrower, with its main CRE effect running through energy and freight costs, as Brent averaged $91 per barrel in August.
President Trump said in a Truth Social post that new, large data centers are “mandated” to generate their own electricity and sell or give excess power back to the local community or grid, and urged developers to pay residents and local governments a “dividend” to win support. It is unclear whether executive action will follow. The comments come as community opposition and utility bill concerns have become a midterm campaign issue. Behind-the-meter generation is already common among developers facing multiyear grid interconnection waits, though the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected efforts this month to require on-site generation across the country’s largest grid system. Community payments are a standard approval tool, but direct cash is rare and not always effective; Hazle Township, Pennsylvania residents rejected an Amazon Web Services campus this month despite a promised $10,000 cash dividend per resident.
Lender Pressure Creates Openings for Multifamily Buyers (GlobeSt, 2026-10-22)
Panelists at the GlobeSt. Multifamily Owners Forum in San Diego said lender pressure on borrowers has increased over the past six to nine months, but it has not produced a broad reset in multifamily pricing. Owners facing refinancing needs or lender demands are being pushed toward sales, while those who can afford to wait are rejecting lower offers. Some sellers are becoming more accepting of current valuations, though others continue to delay in hopes of lower rates. One panelist did not expect the falling-rate momentum that drove past acquisition waves to return, and said opportunities exist for selective buyers but not a large-scale buying window.
INSIGHTS Spotlight
Catch the latest research and insights from Altus
Podcast | Developers diversify as data centers reshape CRE capital and demand
Cole and Omar just got back from the CREDA conference in Denver, and they brought Shawn Moura, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA) Research Foundation, into the studio to break down what he’s seeing in the industry. We discuss why developers are spreading across more property types, how data centers became the force reshaping everything - from capital flows to electricity access to office demand - and what CREDA’s research is showing heading into 2027.
Article | San Francisco’s AI-led multifamily recovery: Why one size does not fit all
San Francisco and Oakland posted the strongest year-over-year multi-family market rent growth of any major US CBSA for the year ending Q2 2026, at 8.6% and 6.0% respectively. That strength was concentrated in a handful of submarkets, not spread evenly across the metros. Chisem Phillips, multifamily market expert at Altus Group, takes a closer look in his latest article.
Article | Following the trucks: why U-Haul migration predicts self-storage supply
Why do the markets leading U-Haul's migration index have the weakest storage rent growth? Because migration signals new supply, not demand. Adam Mauro, alternatives market expert at Altus Group, explores what this means for owners and buyers.
Important dates
Upcoming data releases and events
Data releases (Times in EDT)
Tuesday, October 27
8:30AM: Durable Goods (Sep)
9:00AM: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Aug)
10:00AM: New Home Sales (Sep)
10:00AM: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Wednesday, October 28
8:30AM: Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Goods (Sep)
8:30AM: Wholesale and Retail Inventories (Sep)
2:00PM: U.S. Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, October 29
8:30AM: Advance GDP Estimate (Q3)
8:30AM: Weekly Jobless Claims (Oct 24)
8:30AM: Personal Income and Outlays (Sep)
Friday, October 30
8:30AM: Employment Cost Index (Q3)
9:45AM: Chicago PMI (Oct)
Upcoming Industry Events
October 26 - 28: ULI Fall Meeting 2026 (Miami, FL)
October 26 - 28: CoreNet Global Summit (Chicago, IL)
November 16 - 19: NAREIT REITworld Annual Conference (Atlanta, GA)
December 9 - 10: ICSC New York 2026 (New York, NY)
About our research team
Omar Eltorai
Senior Director of Research
Altus Group
Omar Eltorai is a Research Director at Altus Group. With more than a decade of experience in the industry in investment management and financing roles,
Omar's focus is on macro, capital and market trends affecting the US CRE market. Beyond regularly authoring articles and reports, his commentary and analysis has been featured in various media publications, including: Wall Street Journal, Globe Street, and Yahoo! Finance.
Cole Perry
Associate Director of Research
Altus Group
Cole Perry is a Associate Director of Research with Altus Group's Research team. In this role, Cole delivers key insights into macroeconomics, capital markets, and the broader commercial real estate sector.
Cole boasts a rich background in Commercial Real Estate analytics with previous roles at CompStak and Brixmor Property Group. He holds dual M.S. degrees from Columbia University in Urban Planning and Real Estate Development.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and are not endorsed by Altus Group Limited, its affiliates and its related entities (collectively “Altus Group”). This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice or services of Altus Group. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this publication, or the suitability of the information for a particular purpose. To the extent permitted by law, Altus Group does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. The distribution of this publication to you does not create, extend or revive a client relationship between Altus Group and you or any other person or entity. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or distributed in any form for any purpose without the express written consent of Altus Group.
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