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Press Releases

2005

Real Estate Returns Surge Across Canada, ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index Shows

Toronto, March 4 - Private institutional investors enjoyed a total return on direct investment in Canadian property of 12.9% in 2004, up sharply from 8.4% in 2003, according to an Index published today by The Institute of Canadian Real Estate Investment Managers (ICREIM) and Investment Property Databank (IPD) of the UK. Investment property returns for 2004 were the highest in six years; the previous high was in 1998 when investor returns hit 16% (according to the previous Russell Canadian Property Index).

The yearly index showed that property, over the past 5 years, has posted an annualized return of 10.3%, outperforming both stocks (3.0%) and bonds (7.6%) over the same period.

“This relatively stronger performance versus other asset classes has elevated interest in Canadian real estate investment both among domestic and overseas investors, which has resulted in strong capital growth with values rising by 4.4% last year,” said Phil Tily, Senior Manager of IPD’s International Team.

Retail and industrial properties continued to post the highest returns. However, the office sector showed the strongest relative rebound, due largely to strengthening downtown office markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal. Returns on residential rental properties increased only marginally as above average vacancy rates continued to take their toll.

ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index

 

2004

2003

Annual-
ized 5
Years

 

Capital Growth
(%)

Income Return
(%)

Total Return
(%)

Total Return
(%)

Total Return
(%)

All Property

4.4

8.2

12.9

8.4

10.3

Retail

7.9

8.3

16.9

12.1

11.8

Office

2.2

8.4

10.8

5.4

9.0

Industrial

5.1

8.8

14.4

11.8

12.3

Residential (rental)

-0.5

6.5

6.1

5.1

8.7

Investment property returns were up in 2004 in all regions. Of the four major provinces, Alberta recorded the strongest return (15%), followed by British Columbia (12.8%), Ontario (12.3%) and Québec (11.8%).

Additional results will be presented at the 2005 Canadian launch to be held in Toronto April 4 (admission free). Copies of the “ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index” can be downloaded at www.ipdindex.co.uk. Comprehensive information on the investment performance of Canadian property is available each quarter in the “Canadian Property Investors Digest”; for subscription information or to register for the launch presentation, contact Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research, IPD’s affiliate in Canada (see contact information below).

* IPD has pioneered the development of property indices based on large samples of investment properties and publishes property index results for 14 countries. Full information on IPD and its activities can be found at www.ipdindex.co.uk.

Note to editors

A total of 15 pension funds, life insurance companies and real estate managers contribute property information to the ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index databank. At the end of 2004, the databank contained almost 1,700 properties, with a capital value of about $49 billion, which is estimated to be approximately 50% of institutional holdings and publicly listed vehicles.

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For comment on this release:

Phil Tily, IPD, 011 44 207 643 9311 philt@ipdindex.co.uk

Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research, 416 699 5645 parsenault@clayton-research.com


Greenbelt to Drive Up Land and Housing Prices in GTA, Says Clayton Research Economist

Toronto, February 8 - The Ontario Government’s greenbelt plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, in combination with other proposed changes to the land use planning system including growth management, will lead to higher land and property values, according to Dr. Frank Clayton, President, Clayton Research. In an address to a symposium of the Ontario Association of the Appraisal Institute of Canada, Dr. Clayton stated the consequences of higher land prices include: increased commuting from outside the greenbelt; increased costs for land intensive businesses which will encourage new and expanding firms to locate outside the greenbelt, and indeed, outside the province; and a redistribution of wealth from potential future homeowners (renters, children living at home and immigrants) to existing property owners. These consequences will be negative for economic growth of the province as a whole.

Dr. Clayton also pointed out that a key assumption contained in the growth forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe just released by the Province is flawed. “It is incorrect to assume that restricting the future supply of single-detached houses inside the greenbelt (GTA and Hamilton), even severely, will have no effect on growth outside the greenbelt – our expectation is that buyers will move outward to find more affordable housing".

To obtain a copy of the entire presentation, contact Sue Aiken at clayton@clayton-research.com

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For further information: Frank Clayton (416) 699-5645


2004

Canadian Property Returns Decline for Third Consecutive Year, According to ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index

Toronto, April 26 - Investment Property Databank (IPD) and the Canadian Institute of Real Estate Investment Managers (ICREIM) today publicly launched the 2003 results from the ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index.

The total return on direct investment in properties in Canada according to the ICREIM/IPD Index was 8.2% in 2003, down from 8.9% in 2002, 9.3% in 2001 and 12.1% in 2000.

“During the past 5 years as a whole, property has outperformed both stocks and bonds”, according to Phil Tily of IPD. “However, the rebound in the stock market in 2003 meant the return on equities (at 27.1%) outpaced that of property last year. Property returns, however, continued to outshine returns on bonds (at 4.4%).”

Total returns in 2003 varied widely by property sector. The retail (12.1%) and industrial (11.7%) sectors both recorded higher returns in 2003. The office sector lagged well behind (5.4%), as many investors wrote down property values in this sector of the market during the course of the year. Residential returns plummeted, a combination of softer income returns and value write-downs.

ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index

 

2003

2002

2001

 

Capital Growth

Income Return

Total Return

Total Return

Total Return

All Property

-0.2

8.5

8.2

8.9

9.3

Retail

3.1

9.1

12.1

11.2

8.2

Office

-2.7

8.2

5.4

6.6

9.5

Industrial

2.2

9.5

11.7

10.8

11.2

Residential

-3.6

6.5

2.9

9.9

12.4

Ontario, which accounts for about half of the sample in terms of property value, emerged as one of the weakest performing provinces in 2003, with an overall return of 7.3%. Quebec’s performance was similar to Ontario (7.9%), as both recorded capital write-downs during the year. Property values in the other two major provinces in the index – British Columbia and Alberta – rose over the year, boosting returns in these provinces to 9.7% and 9.9%, respectively.

* IPD has pioneered the development of property indices based on large samples of investment properties and publishes property index results for comparison in the following countries – UK, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, France, Denmark, Norway and South Africa. Development is underway in compiling results for Japan, Spain, Portugal and Italy. IPD is also launching a benchmarking and portfolio analysis service in the U.S., following a successful Pilot Study carried out in 2003 in association with NCREIF. Full information on IPD and its activities is available at www.ipdindex.co.uk.

Note to editors

The ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index replaces the Russell Canadian Property Index, which was discontinued at the end of 2002. A total of 15 pension funds, life insurance companies and real estate managers contribute property level information to the databank on a quarterly basis. At the end of 2003, the databank contained almost 1,700 properties, with a capital value of about $45 billion, which is estimated to be approximately 50% of institutional holdings and publicly listed vehicles. Copies of the “ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index” can be downloaded at www.ipdindex.co.uk. More comprehensive information on the investment performance of Canadian property is available in the Canadian Property Investors Digest; for subscription information, contact Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research, IPD’s affiliate in Canada (see contact information below).

Participants in the IPD service

IPD wishes to thank the contributors to the Canadian property databank, without whom the information contained herein would not be possible: Alberta Revenue, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Canadian Urban Limited, GWL Realty Advisors Inc., HOOPP Real Estate, Investors Group, Lasalle Investment Management, Manulife Financial, Morguard Investments Ltd., OMERS, Penreal Capital Management, Redcliff Realty Advisors Inc., Standard Life Assurance Company, Sun Life Financial, The Cadillac-Fairview Corporation Limited.

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For comment on this release:

Phil Tily, IPD, week of April 26th 416-699-5645; thereafter +44 (0)207 643 9311 philt@ipdindex.co.uk

Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research, 416-699-5645 parsenault@clayton-research.com


2003

Ontario Politicians Missing the Housing Boat, according to Clayton Research

TORONTO, September 18/03 – An analysis of the housing platforms of the three major parties in the upcoming Ontario provincial election confirms that it’s all about garnering votes – not addressing real housing problems – according to Clayton Research.

“None of the 3 major parties seems to have a grasp of the current market dynamics,” says Frank Clayton, President of Clayton Research. “The Tories are promising homeowner mortgage interest rate rebates at a time when interest rates are near historical lows, while the NDP want to build tens of thousands of assisted rental units when rental vacancy rates are near historical highs.” Dr. Clayton gives the Liberals kudos for promising a shelter allowance program to address the main problem in the market today – needy low income renters – but they get thumbs down for proposing to tighten rent controls again, as it would cut short the recent return of private sector rental development. The Conservatives should be congratulated for leaving the existing rent control regime unchanged but fall short by not supporting their 1995 promise to bring in shelter allowances.

Dr. Clayton says the optimal housing policy mix for Ontario today is to rely on the private sector to build most new rental housing, eliminate (or at least don’t tighten) existing rent controls, and introduce a shelter allowance program to assist low income renters.

These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing Report.

Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both private and public sector clients across Canada.

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For further information: Frank Clayton (416) 699-5645


Aging Baby Boomers Spur Opportunities in Canada’s Vacation Home Market

TORONTO, August xx/03 – The market for vacation homes in Canada is being positively impacted by the aging of the baby boom generation, according to Clayton Research.

“The baby boom generation is now aging into the peak vacation home owning age groups,” according to Robert Feldgaier, Vice-President of Clayton Research. “This, combined with rising real incomes, low interest rates and poor performance on alternate investments all add up to strong demand for vacation homes over the next 10 years.”

Mr. Feldgaier points out that there will be many opportunities for developers, builders, renovators, building product suppliers and lenders to tap the growth in the vacation home market – if they can provide the types of products and services that buyers desire in attractive locations.

These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing Report.

Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both private and public sector clients across Canada.

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For further information: Robert Feldgaier (416) 699-5645


Canadian Housing Starts at a Cyclical Peak, say Economists at Clayton Research

TORONTO, July 31/ - Housing starts in Canada are set to remain buoyant in 2004, but will start to come down from their cyclical peak, according to economists at Clayton Research.

“It now seems certain that starts in 2003 will at least match last year’s 13-year high,” said Peter Norman, Vice-President, “but they can’t keep up at these levels indefinitely.”

Housing starts this year are anticipated to reach about 207,000 units. In 2004 new home construction is forecast to decline to about 190,000 units, Mr. Norman added.

Housing starts are expected to moderate in most parts of the country next year with the exception of B.C., which is still recovering from recent lows.

These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing Forecast.

Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both private and public sector clients across Canada.

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For further information: Peter Norman (416) 699-5645


Rental Housing Investment Helping to Support Canada's Pensioners

TORONTO, July 10/03 – With losses in the stock market in the past few years, many pension funds, as well as other investors, have taken some comfort in the diversification offered by their real estate investments, according to Clayton Research. And rental housing is playing an important role in some real estate portfolios.

“Over the past 15 years, returns on rental housing investment have outpaced other types of real estate in institutional investors’ portfolios”, according to Patricia Arsenault, Senior Vice-President of Clayton Research. “The icing on the cake has been that risk (the volatility in returns) has been low compared to other types of real estate, such as office and industrial. The relatively high returns combined with relatively low risk has been a win-win situation for investors.”

Returns on rental housing investment in Canada have averaged 11.5% per year over the past 15 years, compared to 6.9% for office, 9.3% for industrial and 8.8% for retail.

These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing Report. The analysis is based on information from the new ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index.

Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both private and public sector clients across Canada.

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For further information: Patricia Arsenault (416)699-5645


Canada's Downtowns Alive and Well, says Clayton Research

TORONTO, April 2/ - While the population living in the heart of Canada's larger metropolitan areas may not be very large in relation to the entire area, the population is expanding, according to Clayton Research.

"The growth in population shows that U.S.-type subsidies are not needed to attract people to live in our downtowns," said Frank Clayton, President. "Nor does all the publicity about deteriorating infrastructure in the older parts of our cities seem to be impeding downtown development. Changing demographics and lifestyle preferences are attracting more households to live in or near the downtown."

In the 1996-2001 period, the central areas of Edmonton, Vancouver and Halifax recorded the largest shares of metropolitan-wide population growth (7.4% to 10.7%). Winnipeg was the only area examined that recorded a decline in its central area population. Since 2001, the relative strength in housing starts points to continued population growth in central Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, Dr. Clayton added.

These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing Report.

Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both private and public sector clients across Canada.

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For further information please contact Frank Clayton (416) 699-5645


 

 
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