Press Releases
Real Estate
Returns Surge Across Canada, ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index Shows
Toronto, March 4 - Private institutional investors enjoyed a total
return on direct investment in Canadian property of 12.9% in 2004, up
sharply from 8.4% in 2003, according to an Index published today by
The Institute of Canadian Real Estate Investment Managers (ICREIM)
and Investment Property Databank (IPD) of the UK. Investment property
returns for 2004 were the highest in six years; the previous high was
in 1998 when investor returns hit 16% (according to the previous Russell
Canadian Property Index).
The yearly index showed that property, over the past 5 years, has posted an
annualized return of 10.3%, outperforming both stocks (3.0%) and bonds (7.6%)
over the same period.
“This relatively stronger performance versus other asset classes has elevated
interest in Canadian real estate investment both among domestic and overseas
investors, which has resulted in strong capital growth with values rising by 4.4%
last year,” said Phil Tily, Senior Manager of IPD’s International Team.
Retail and industrial properties continued to post the highest returns. However,
the office sector showed the strongest relative rebound, due largely to
strengthening downtown office markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal.
Returns on residential rental properties increased only marginally as above average
vacancy rates continued to take their toll.
ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index
|
|
2004
|
2003
|
Annual-
ized 5
Years
|
|
|
Capital Growth
(%)
|
Income Return
(%)
|
Total Return
(%)
|
Total Return
(%)
|
Total Return
(%)
|
|
All Property
|
4.4
|
8.2
|
12.9
|
8.4
|
10.3
|
|
Retail
|
7.9
|
8.3
|
16.9
|
12.1
|
11.8
|
|
Office
|
2.2
|
8.4
|
10.8
|
5.4
|
9.0
|
|
Industrial
|
5.1
|
8.8
|
14.4
|
11.8
|
12.3
|
|
Residential (rental)
|
-0.5
|
6.5
|
6.1
|
5.1
|
8.7
|
Investment property returns were up in 2004 in all regions. Of the four major
provinces, Alberta recorded the strongest return (15%), followed by British
Columbia (12.8%), Ontario (12.3%) and Québec (11.8%).
Additional results will be presented at the 2005 Canadian launch to be held in
Toronto April 4 (admission free). Copies of the “ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property
Index” can be downloaded at www.ipdindex.co.uk.
Comprehensive information on the
investment performance of Canadian property is available each quarter in the
“Canadian Property Investors Digest”; for subscription information or to register
for the launch presentation, contact Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research, IPD’s
affiliate in Canada (see contact information below).
* IPD has pioneered the development of property indices based on large samples of
investment properties and publishes property index results for 14 countries. Full
information on IPD and its activities can be found at www.ipdindex.co.uk.
Note to editors
A total of 15 pension funds, life insurance companies and real estate managers
contribute property information to the ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index
databank. At the end of 2004, the databank contained almost 1,700 properties, with
a capital value of about $49 billion, which is estimated to be approximately 50%
of institutional holdings and publicly listed vehicles.
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For comment on this release:
Phil Tily, IPD, 011 44 207 643 9311 philt@ipdindex.co.uk
Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research, 416 699 5645 parsenault@clayton-research.com
Greenbelt to
Drive Up Land and Housing Prices in GTA, Says Clayton Research
Economist
Toronto, February 8 - The Ontario Government’s greenbelt
plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, in combination with other proposed
changes to the land use planning system including growth management, will lead
to higher land and property values, according to Dr. Frank Clayton, President,
Clayton Research. In an address to a symposium of the Ontario Association of
the Appraisal Institute of Canada, Dr. Clayton stated the consequences of
higher land prices include: increased commuting from outside the greenbelt;
increased costs for land intensive businesses which will encourage new and
expanding firms to locate outside the greenbelt, and indeed, outside the
province; and a redistribution of wealth from potential future homeowners
(renters, children living at home and immigrants) to existing property owners.
These consequences will be negative for economic growth of the province as a whole.
Dr. Clayton also pointed out that a key assumption contained in the growth forecasts for the
Greater Golden Horseshoe just released by the Province is flawed. “It is
incorrect to assume that restricting the future supply of single-detached
houses inside the greenbelt (GTA and Hamilton), even severely, will have no effect on
growth outside the greenbelt – our expectation is that buyers will move outward
to find more affordable housing".
To obtain a copy of the entire presentation, contact Sue Aiken at clayton@clayton-research.com
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For further information: Frank Clayton (416) 699-5645
Canadian
Property Returns Decline for Third Consecutive Year, According to
ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index
Toronto, April 26 - Investment
Property Databank (IPD) and the Canadian Institute of Real Estate Investment
Managers (ICREIM) today publicly launched the 2003 results from the ICREIM/IPD
Canadian Property Index.
The total return on direct investment in properties in Canada according to the
ICREIM/IPD Index was 8.2% in 2003, down from 8.9% in 2002, 9.3% in 2001 and
12.1% in 2000.
“During the past 5 years as a whole, property has outperformed both stocks and bonds”,
according to Phil Tily of IPD. “However,
the rebound in the stock market in 2003 meant the return on equities (at 27.1%)
outpaced that of property last year. Property returns, however, continued to
outshine returns on bonds (at 4.4%).”
Total returns in 2003 varied widely by property sector. The retail (12.1%) and
industrial (11.7%) sectors both recorded higher returns in 2003. The office
sector lagged well behind (5.4%), as many investors wrote down property values
in this sector of the market during the course of the year. Residential returns
plummeted, a combination of softer income returns and value write-downs.
ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index
|
|
2003
|
2002
|
2001
|
|
|
Capital Growth
|
Income Return
|
Total Return
|
Total Return
|
Total Return
|
|
All Property
|
-0.2
|
8.5
|
8.2
|
8.9
|
9.3
|
|
Retail
|
3.1
|
9.1
|
12.1
|
11.2
|
8.2
|
|
Office
|
-2.7
|
8.2
|
5.4
|
6.6
|
9.5
|
|
Industrial
|
2.2
|
9.5
|
11.7
|
10.8
|
11.2
|
|
Residential
|
-3.6
|
6.5
|
2.9
|
9.9
|
12.4
|
Ontario, which accounts
for about half of the sample in terms of property value, emerged as one of the weakest
performing provinces in 2003, with an overall return of 7.3%. Quebec’s performance was
similar to Ontario (7.9%), as both
recorded capital write-downs during the year. Property values in the other two
major provinces in the index – British Columbia and Alberta – rose over the
year, boosting returns in these provinces to 9.7% and 9.9%, respectively.
* IPD has pioneered the development
of property indices based on large samples of investment properties and publishes property index results for comparison in the following
countries – UK, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, France, Denmark, Norway and South
Africa. Development is underway in compiling results
for Japan, Spain, Portugal and Italy. IPD is also launching a benchmarking and
portfolio analysis service in the U.S., following a successful Pilot
Study carried out in 2003 in association with NCREIF. Full information on IPD and its activities is available
at www.ipdindex.co.uk.
Note
to editors
The ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index
replaces the Russell Canadian Property Index, which was discontinued at the end
of 2002. A total of 15 pension funds, life insurance companies and real estate
managers contribute property level information to the databank on a quarterly
basis. At the end of 2003, the databank contained almost 1,700 properties, with
a capital value of about $45 billion, which is estimated to be approximately
50% of institutional holdings and publicly listed vehicles. Copies of the
“ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index” can be downloaded at www.ipdindex.co.uk. More comprehensive
information on the investment performance of Canadian property is available in
the Canadian Property Investors Digest; for subscription information, contact Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research,
IPD’s affiliate in Canada (see contact information below).
Participants in the IPD service
IPD wishes to thank the contributors to the
Canadian property databank, without whom the information contained herein would
not be possible: Alberta Revenue, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec,
Canadian Urban Limited, GWL Realty Advisors Inc., HOOPP Real Estate, Investors
Group, Lasalle Investment Management, Manulife Financial, Morguard Investments
Ltd., OMERS, Penreal Capital Management, Redcliff Realty Advisors Inc.,
Standard Life Assurance Company, Sun Life Financial, The Cadillac-Fairview Corporation
Limited.
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For comment on this release:
Phil Tily, IPD, week of April 26th 416-699-5645;
thereafter +44 (0)207 643 9311 philt@ipdindex.co.uk
Patricia Arsenault, Clayton Research,
416-699-5645 parsenault@clayton-research.com
Ontario Politicians Missing the Housing Boat,
according to Clayton Research
TORONTO, September 18/03 – An analysis of the housing platforms of the three major parties in the upcoming Ontario
provincial election confirms that it’s all about garnering votes – not
addressing real housing problems – according to Clayton Research.
“None of the 3 major parties seems to have a grasp of the current market dynamics,”
says Frank Clayton, President of Clayton Research. “The Tories are promising homeowner
mortgage interest rate rebates at a time when interest rates are near
historical lows, while the NDP want to build tens of thousands of assisted
rental units when rental vacancy rates are near historical highs.” Dr. Clayton
gives the Liberals kudos for promising a shelter allowance program to address the
main problem in the market today – needy low income renters – but they get
thumbs down for proposing to tighten rent controls again, as it would cut short
the recent return of private sector rental development. The Conservatives
should be congratulated for leaving the existing rent control regime unchanged
but fall short by not supporting their 1995 promise to bring in shelter
allowances.
Dr. Clayton says the optimal housing policy mix for Ontario today is to rely on the private
sector to build most new rental housing, eliminate (or at least don’t tighten)
existing rent controls, and introduce a shelter allowance program to assist low
income renters.
These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing Report.
Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both
private and public sector clients across Canada.
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For further information: Frank Clayton (416) 699-5645
Aging Baby Boomers Spur Opportunities in
Canada’s Vacation Home Market
TORONTO, August xx/03 – The market for vacation homes
in Canada is being positively impacted by the aging of
the baby boom generation, according to Clayton Research.
“The baby boom generation is now aging into the peak vacation home
owning age groups,” according to Robert Feldgaier,
Vice-President of Clayton Research. “This, combined with rising real incomes,
low interest rates and poor performance on alternate investments all add up to strong
demand for vacation homes over the next 10 years.”
Mr. Feldgaier points out that there will be
many opportunities for developers, builders, renovators, building product
suppliers and lenders to tap the growth in the vacation home market – if they
can provide the types of products and services that buyers desire in attractive
locations.
These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing Report.
Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both
private and public sector clients across Canada.
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For further information: Robert Feldgaier (416) 699-5645
Canadian Housing Starts at a Cyclical Peak, say Economists
at Clayton Research
TORONTO, July 31/ - Housing starts in Canada are set to remain
buoyant in 2004, but will start to come down from their cyclical peak, according
to economists at Clayton Research.
“It now seems certain that starts in 2003 will at least match last year’s 13-year high,” said
Peter Norman, Vice-President, “but they can’t keep up at these levels indefinitely.”
Housing starts this year are anticipated to reach about 207,000 units. In 2004 new home
construction is forecast to decline to about 190,000 units, Mr. Norman
added.
Housing starts are expected to moderate in most parts of the country next year with the
exception of B.C., which is still recovering from recent lows.
These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton Housing
Forecast.
Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists providing services to both
private and public sector clients across Canada.
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For further information: Peter Norman (416) 699-5645
Rental Housing Investment Helping to Support Canada's Pensioners
TORONTO, July 10/03 – With losses in the stock market in the past few years,
many pension funds, as well as other investors, have taken some
comfort in the diversification offered by their real estate
investments, according to Clayton Research. And rental housing is
playing an important role in some real estate portfolios.
“Over the past 15 years, returns on rental housing investment
have outpaced other types of real estate in institutional investors’
portfolios”, according to Patricia
Arsenault, Senior Vice-President
of Clayton Research. “The icing on the cake has been that risk (the
volatility in returns) has been low compared to other types of real
estate, such as office and industrial. The relatively high returns
combined with relatively low risk has been a win-win situation for
investors.”
Returns on rental housing investment in Canada have averaged 11.5% per year over the past 15 years, compared to 6.9%
for office, 9.3% for industrial and 8.8% for retail.
These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton
Housing Report. The analysis is based on information from the
new ICREIM/IPD Canadian Property Index.
Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists
providing services to both private and public sector clients across Canada.
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For further information: Patricia
Arsenault (416)699-5645
Canada's Downtowns Alive and Well, says Clayton Research
TORONTO, April 2/ - While the population living in the heart of Canada's larger metropolitan areas
may not be very large in relation to the entire area, the population is expanding, according to
Clayton Research.
"The growth in population shows that U.S.-type subsidies are not needed to attract people to live
in our downtowns," said Frank Clayton, President. "Nor
does all the publicity about deteriorating infrastructure in the older parts of our cities
seem to be impeding downtown development. Changing demographics and lifestyle preferences are
attracting more households to live in or near the downtown."
In the 1996-2001 period, the central areas of Edmonton, Vancouver and Halifax recorded
the largest shares of metropolitan-wide population growth (7.4% to 10.7%). Winnipeg was the
only area examined that recorded a decline in its central area population. Since 2001, the
relative strength in housing starts points to continued population growth in central Toronto,
Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, Dr. Clayton added.
These findings were revealed today in a new edition of Clayton
Housing Report.
Clayton Research is a firm of urban and real estate economists
providing services to both private and public sector clients across
Canada.
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For further information please contact Frank Clayton (416) 699-5645
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